[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dbarberic', '
')Some modern McMansion suburbs, provided they are in the right setting/environment, may actually continue to exist. Some, however, are built in such poor locations with poor layout, that they will indeed turn to slums.

[deadmaker7]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', 'T')he reason why brownstones have lasted to this day is because they were built to last. McMansions will be crumbling into dust by the time things get bad. The materials in use today are shoddy and the workmanship is terrible. Developers plan for a new house to last no more than 30 years while in the past structures were built to last a century or more. Sure, squatters might get shelter for a few years while the former luxury homes they occupy still stand, but when the McMansions are crumbling, they're SOL.

[deadmaker7]

Interesting topic, being a JHK fan it's one of my favorite aspects of PO. About this tearing down the suburbs to build farms, though, I don't think it will be that easy. For one thing when subdivisions are built the ground is totally bulldozed and often non-native grasses and trees are planted. Now, I can only imagine that this would deplete the existing topsoil. The USA will be facing a topsoil crisis in the coming years (google "topsoil depletion") and this means farming will be more difficult without, guess what, petroleum derived fertilizers. And since age-old practices such as crop rotation have been all but forgotten, I can only guess that these suburb-farms will yield a fraction of today's agri-empires. Perhaps someone with a better knowledge of these topics can chip in.

[Chaparral]

They may adjust by burning a little bit.

I was driving through a slummy part of Los Angeles today; a part that had a considerable number of vacant lots dating to the fires of the Rodney King riots in 1992. This thread came to mind.

If civil unrest ratchets up a bit, will we see fires level parts of suburbia the way they've levelled parts of Detroit, the Bronx, LA and other cities?

Back in '92 one of my neighbor's subcontractors burned his shop to the ground in order to collect the insurance money. His cabinetry business was going bust in the aerospace/real estate recession. He got caught but I can see a lot of upside down properties being erased from the landscape in order to collect the insurance as well. It provides food for thought and things to keep an eye on.

Vacant lots can be had cheap in a real estate recession. If they've had a few years worth of weeds growing amidst all that charcoal residue they may have a little bit of fertility. Wet rotting some plant material can provide "green manure tea" to add nutrients to the soil. Legumes can be cultivated the first few years to build nitrogen and other organic matter.

[dugite]

Hi. This has been a long thread and i haven't read every post so my apologies if I repeat someone.

There is talk of 'people moving' from the suburbs etc. This begs the economic question: show me the money!

If you live 30km (17miles) and the move is away from your suburb who do you expect to buy your house from you and at what price? House values will initially slow thier increases, then stabilise then start to fall in a 'soft landing'. If there is a severe crisis that lasts more than a few months then they will drop quickly. The trouble is the mortgage wont drop meaning that either the householder will carry the debt and have nothing left for new housing or the bank will be left to carry the cost (as well as the cost of thousands of others). This is presently happening on a small scale in New Orleans but at least there is a bright future there (for now).

[Daryl]

Good point. Also, where are the people going to move to exactly? LA, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta ..... Even if you could deploy an electric bus system, can these cities even survive without the automobile? Not likely. The populations and the job sites are too widely dispersed geographically. That's why when the crunch comes, the only option will be a crash electric car program. Old traditional non-car cities like Chicago, Boston and NY look on the surface like they could handle it better, but they are all ringed with far flung suburbs whose population dwarfs the subelt cities. Abandoning the automobile is not an option for the US.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'G')ood point. Also, where are the people going to move to exactly? LA, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta ..... Even if you could deploy an electric bus system, can these cities even survive without the automobile? Not likely. The populations and the job sites are too widely dispersed geographically.

[Daryl]

I hope you're right. I would love to see a massive move to public transportation. Hopefully in the coming energy crisis, public policy will shift to encourage. My EV arguments are in response to doomers saying that oil can't be replaced. I not advocating it because I think it is a utopian solution. How things actually shake out will probably be a mix of much fewer cars, more EV's and ICE's, more mass transit, government is going to get much more involved in resource allocation, which is about time. Still having a hard time seeing people getting around Phoenix on mass transit. In the long run, I think the only thing that will move people out of cars is the gridlock. Another problem is the instability of the job market. Who wants to move close to their job when the only career certainty anyone has is that they won't be at the same company for more than a few years.

[Daryl]

Above I meant "less ICE's"

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'S')till having a hard time seeing people getting around Phoenix on mass transit. In the long run, I think the only thing that will move people out of cars is the gridlock.

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f they've had a few years worth of weeds growing amidst all that charcoal residue they may have a little bit of fertility.

[Bandage]

The resolution of suburbia after Peak Oil will be by natural selection. The wisest people will leave while there is yet time, their suburban homes being bought by those who are less wise. The new owners will in turn perceive the coming crisis before some others do, and so sell to them. So it will go, until the supply of hapless fools begins becomes depleted. Peak Fool might be what bursts the housing bubble market.

[dub_scratch]

Suburbs-- or more precisely low density urban developments-- have two overwhelming problems when it comes to energy: One the amount of distance to travel in communicating those environments and two is the extraordinary amount of building exterior surface area per person. It is obvious the amount of driving and gasoline consumption the suburban form dictates. It is somewhat less obvious that the single family house form, as compared to an apartment building, has a lot more volume and exterior wall to heat.

If it were only a problem of transportation in suburbs then IMO these urban structures could be maintained in a low energy regime. Telecommuting, busways, telecom ridesharing and bicycles could serve suburbs well at overcoming the awkwardness of long distances. Certain redevelopment of existing strip centers could respond to changing transport patterns. With these suggested practices Americans can theoretically reduce vehicle miles traveled while maintaining urban lifestyles within these low density suburban structures.

But I think the death of the low dencity lifestyle will be the additional problems associated with heating so many large spread out houses and commercial buildings. This factor is IMO more important than the transportation problems of suburbia. We can all live in comfort by sharing a ride or telecommuting to work. But no one will tolerate shivering in the cold of winter. People may not like giving up their car but freezing is miserable, and to many, it will be deadly.

Given these overwhelming tandem of problems with low density suburban sprawl there can only be one option as a peak oil mitigating strategy. That is to reform and redensify these very suburbs. By that we would have to build walkable densely populated districts within existing suburbs. Houses will have to be divided into smaller units with yards between houses in-filled. Garages will become additional dwellings and even commercial units. Parking lots of strip mall will be in-filled, sometimes with structures moved from other outlying areas. Much of the periphery away form these chosen districts will have to be abandoned. In short, the only choice for America is to go on a massive rebuilding process of our urbanized areas. It's either that or freeze in the winter.

How this process will be put together is anybody's guess.

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dub_scratch', '
')
Given these overwhelming tandem of problems with low density suburban sprawl there can only be one option as a peak oil mitigating strategy. That is to reform and redensify these very suburbs. By that we would have to build walkable densely populated districts within existing suburbs. Houses will have to be divided into smaller units with yards between houses in-filled. Garages will become additional dwellings and even commercial units. Parking lots of strip mall will be in-filled, sometimes with structures moved from other outlying areas. Much of the periphery away form these chosen districts will have to be abandoned. In short, the only choice for America is to go on a massive rebuilding process of our urbanized areas. It's either that or freeze in the winter.

How this process will be put together is anybody's guess.

[GenghisKen]

I have visited ruins on 3 continents and the things that struck me about them was...
1)They had massive natural resources AHEAD of them in time.
2)They built on a time frame that we do not even come close to.
3)The cities as such were very small while ALL of the usable land in the surrounds was needed just to survive.
4)They all depended on some form of transport(donkeys,women horses etc.) to keep the city alive.
5)A small part of the population was supported by backbreaking labor of the majority of the population.(I know.. We all think we are the small part).
6) They all went into overshoot(and I bet they had the same conversations we are having now).
7)To be self suficient is a FULL TIME job.to take a gun and shoot Mr. Self suficient takes only a second.
Metals and paper wont buy you food unless people beleive that the paper and metal you try to trade with are actually important.(american indians left the gold on the ground cause ya cant eat it).
9) they all failed..
10) Living in one area draws down the resources of that area(can avoid this if you have cheap transport to and from resources to homes as we have been lucky enough to have in our lifetimes) we have drawn down the level of resources(FOOD and BIOMASS,natural gas,Oil, farmland, etc etc etc.) to such a level that it is impossible to support even a small population on anything short of another planet earth.
Peak oil isn't what frightens me it's peak everything at once that gives me nightmares..

Sleep well All

[zeke]

I hate to wreck your corn flakes, but the "soft landing" scenario you describe below sounds pretty generous to me.

If any rail system, skeletal or otherwise, is going to help us, it'd better be under construction NOW. Railroad rail weighs approximately 100 pounds per yard. Then there are the spikes, ties and ballast. All take lots of energy to make, transport and instal.

I would be extremely wise for us to spend the last of our oil on projects like that, and forget about next-generation iPods and running the AC.

As for "exchanging secretaries," I'm going to suggest that any job which requires a secretary in the first place is an outgrowth of a cheap-oil economy. When the grit hits the fan, most people will be scrambling to take care of the basics, and I think you'll find lots of pink, soft, squishy CEOs getting comfortable with shovels mighty fast. Their fitter former secretaries might even be their supervisors.

"Buying mopeds" doesn't strike me as a "solution" but rather as a wish. Scarce oil means far fewer consumer goods, if any, and slim chance of powering them with the same scarce oil.

Think: walking. Lucky folks will have bikes and the skills to maintain them, and those bikes will be kept inside.

In general, I'd stop thinking "How can I maintain my current life," and start thinking "how can I learn to adapt to a world that will be pre-industrial, perhaps in the near future?"

z

[Ferretlover]

More and more gated sections....

It will only take one hurricane or one fire (with no fuel for fire engines) to end a housing sector...

[efarmer]

They will adjust like moths adjust in a tornado. Ad hoc teamwork for gardening, child care, cooking and baking, transportation, and education will emerge but will be very fluid and a "solution du jour" affair. Tribal affiliations driven by living proximity in addition to family ties and personal relationships.

Old men will walk about with inert leaf blowers, and make the howling sound with their puckered mouths. My bad, it probably won't get that crazy...

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GenghisKen', '
') Metals and paper wont buy you food unless people beleive that the paper and metal you try to trade with are actually important.(american indians left the gold on the ground cause ya cant eat it).
Peak oil isn't what frightens me it's peak everything at once that gives me nightmares..

[Twilight]

You ask an interesting question.

You should read through this thread:

Prediction : As Oil Depletes The Countryside Will Empty Out

Don't be put off the title and the length of the contributions, it is a fascinating read that covers a lot of ground. My take on it is there will be a lot of local variation, with some cities/suburbs increasing in population and adapting structurally, and others emptying out as the reasons for habitation (for example local industry, employment) disappear. The gist of the argument is that not all suburbs will be worth saving, and a combination of market forces and natural limitations such as easy water availability will determine where consolidation takes place.