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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 02:52:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', ' ')Advertising consumption is loss of resources anyway.


Which is next on my powerdown list: ban all forms of advertising save word of mouth or public directories.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby SolarDave » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 03:20:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', ' ')Advertising consumption is loss of resources anyway.


Which is next on my powerdown list: ban all forms of advertising save word of mouth or public directories.


I have always believed we just have advertising backwards. We advertise what we have (commercially) rather than what we want/need. I think the latter would be a lot more efficient.

There are sadly not many examples I can recall of advertised needs. All push, no pull.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 03:24:00

^^ Well, there goes open-air television. I guess the poor really didn't deserve entertainment anyway, wastes resources I hear.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e advertise what we have (commercially) rather than what we want/need

Now that is an interesting concept... Of course, for any one thing there is only a few potential makers of it. So, if you want to ask for a product just call them directly (it would be cheaper than putting out a TV ad). Especially when you recognize that there is probably a good reason they are not making what you are going to ask for (resources not available, etc).

But for the reverse, there are often millions of potential customers. As such, calling each one would be annoying and prohibitively expensive. Best just to buy a TV ad.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Waterthrush » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 07:26:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems to me, just to be fair to the rest of the world we should be using 1/5 of the resources we're currently using in the US. But even then it would not be sustainable, so, our goals should be even less than that.


Ludi, my mind keeps playing tricks on me and wants to see your figure as a cut of 20% rather than 80%. That is a truly daunting figure, and you say it's not sufficient ... really sobering.

I've been keeping track of my household energy prices for a couple of years, month by month, since I joined this group. More recently I started keeping track of my personal use. in terms of therms and kwh - it's on my energy bill. Just a spreadsheet. With this thread, I'm going to try to lower my use month by month.

Should be a big-time drop this month, just had new energy-efficient windows installed. I'll dedicate any savings towards more energy efficiency.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 09:07:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable containers of any kind. This includes grocery store containers for mustard, mayo, etc.


Do you have any idea of the scale of economic disruption this would cause? Having worked in the flexible packaging industry for a time, I can make a somewhat less than blind stab at this.

First, the facility that produces the packaging. A typical one, producing nothing more than safety seals, employs more than 35 people full time on two shifts. One that produces food packaging employs similar numbers.

Now how about the people who produce the machinery, feed stocks, adhesives, inks, solvents?

How about the increased cost to ship? Stop using flexible packacing, and replace it with glass, for instance, and the energy density to transport a given volume increases because of the added mass.

As for the disposable plastic bottles, you can add tool and die makers, machine operators, air compressor manufacturers...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable plastic or paper bags. Carry your own cloth bag for shopping.


So when I go to my hardware store, and get a handfull of nails, some small bolts, nuts and washers, and drywall screws from the bulk bins, I just mix them in my nice cloth bag and sort them out later.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ake cardboard boxes all the same with no advertising so they can be reused if not damaged.


Sure hope the manufactured goods get to the right distributer. Hope the distrubuter can find what he's looking for by x-ray vision, cause it would be a bitch to look through all those boxes to find what his customer wants.

I don't think you have a grasp of the scale of disruption these changes would cause. Or the cost to the economy.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 09:35:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable containers of any kind. This includes grocery store containers for mustard, mayo, etc.


Do you have any idea of the scale of economic disruption this would cause? Having worked in the flexible packaging industry for a time, I can make a somewhat less than blind stab at this.

First, the facility that produces the packaging. A typical one, producing nothing more than safety seals, employs more than 35 people full time on two shifts. One that produces food packaging employs similar numbers.

Now how about the people who produce the machinery, feed stocks, adhesives, inks, solvents?

How about the increased cost to ship? Stop using flexible packacing, and replace it with glass, for instance, and the energy density to transport a given volume increases because of the added mass.

As for the disposable plastic bottles, you can add tool and die makers, machine operators, air compressor manufacturers...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable plastic or paper bags. Carry your own cloth bag for shopping.


So when I go to my hardware store, and get a handfull of nails, some small bolts, nuts and washers, and drywall screws from the bulk bins, I just mix them in my nice cloth bag and sort them out later.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ake cardboard boxes all the same with no advertising so they can be reused if not damaged.


Sure hope the manufactured goods get to the right distributer. Hope the distrubuter can find what he's looking for by x-ray vision, cause it would be a bitch to look through all those boxes to find what his customer wants.

I don't think you have a grasp of the scale of disruption these changes would cause. Or the cost to the economy.


I'm sure it would cause a dislocation. But to address some, but admittedly not all, of your objections I would ask,

How many of these could be transitioned into the industry of making and recycling permenant containers of glass, metal or reusable (standardized) containers?

If the boxes had a removable lable couldn't that help with the problem of identification? The box could still be reused with another label placed over the old?

Small reusable boxes made of any number of materials could be used to transport nails, bolts etc. Pay for the items by weight and you're off.

It seems to me that we are headed toward a great dislocation whether we like it or not. We can either make it productive toward sustainability or we can let it be purely destructive. If it is to be productive than we are going to have to think creatively about swolutions to problems and become accustomed to doing things differently.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 10:01:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable containers of any kind. This includes grocery store containers for mustard, mayo, etc.


Do you have any idea of the scale of economic disruption this would cause? Having worked in the flexible packaging industry for a time, I can make a somewhat less than blind stab at this.

First, the facility that produces the packaging. A typical one, producing nothing more than safety seals, employs more than 35 people full time on two shifts. One that produces food packaging employs similar numbers.

Now how about the people who produce the machinery, feed stocks, adhesives, inks, solvents?

How about the increased cost to ship? Stop using flexible packacing, and replace it with glass, for instance, and the energy density to transport a given volume increases because of the added mass.

As for the disposable plastic bottles, you can add tool and die makers, machine operators, air compressor manufacturers...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')o more disposable plastic or paper bags. Carry your own cloth bag for shopping.


So when I go to my hardware store, and get a handfull of nails, some small bolts, nuts and washers, and drywall screws from the bulk bins, I just mix them in my nice cloth bag and sort them out later.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ake cardboard boxes all the same with no advertising so they can be reused if not damaged.


Sure hope the manufactured goods get to the right distributer. Hope the distrubuter can find what he's looking for by x-ray vision, cause it would be a bitch to look through all those boxes to find what his customer wants.

I don't think you have a grasp of the scale of disruption these changes would cause. Or the cost to the economy.


I'm sure it would cause a dislocation. But to address some, but admittedly not all, of your objections I would ask,

How many of these could be transitioned into the industry of making and recycling permenant containers of glass, metal or reusable (standardized) containers?

If the boxes had a removable lable couldn't that help with the problem of identification? The box could still be reused with another label placed over the old?

Small reusable boxes made of any number of materials could be used to transport nails, bolts etc. Pay for the items by weight and you're off.

It seems to me that we are headed toward a great dislocation whether we like it or not. We can either make it productive toward sustainability or we can let it be purely destructive. If it is to be productive than we are going to have to think creatively about swolutions to problems and become accustomed to doing things differently.

Of course I don't really believe that the points in my post are entirely reasonable. For instance, with glass over disposable packaging, I ignore the embodied energy and resource cost of the disposables, knowing full well, that over time, the recycling of a glass container will offset the weight penalty for shipping it.

MQ specifically bans disposable paper or plastic bags, and I brought up the nails to make him think. Of course, I don't think he would really object to the use of paper bags for bulk items. Could be wrong though.

Solutions for the cardboard containers you outline are good, and again, I was just being an ass when I made the whole "how do you know what's inside" point.

For all the trouble caused by the automobile industry, Ford had it right as far as manufacturing went. Standardized parts, all the materials he brought in were in packaging to his specification, and all the packaging was used in the manufacture of the vehicles he produced. Zero waste. The idea is coming around again, and I applaud it.

In truth, I agree, in principle, with many of the ideas outlined in this thread.

I just thought I might give the big M a taste of his own medicine.

As long as we're looking at pie in the sky responses to peak oil, I have a single change that would change the entire world paradigm of consumption.

All it would require is that every nation on earth adopt a single currency, the watt.

Everything would be priced by the total embodied energy to produce it. People would be paid by the total energy they expend, or save.

This single change would affect everything, and shift us to an energy sustainable paradigm.

Come to think of it, you might have to eliminate unsecured credit though.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 11:32:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', ' ')I don't think you have a grasp of the scale of disruption these changes would cause. Or the cost to the economy.


I don't think you have a grasp of the scale of disruption the depletion of fossil fuels will cause. Or the cost to the economy.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 11:39:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', ' ')How about the increased cost to ship?


No more long-haul shipping. Produce locally. Bring your own container and bulk buy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o when I go to my hardware store, and get a handfull of nails, some small bolts, nuts and washers, and drywall screws from the bulk bins, I just mix them in my nice cloth bag and sort them out later.


Bring your own small containers from home.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ope the distrubuter can find what he's looking for by x-ray vision, cause it would be a bitch to look through all those boxes to find what his customer wants.


I didn't say ban packing slips.

Sounds like you are stuck in the old world view paradigm of easy convenience via fossil fuels.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 11:40:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alcassin', ' ')Advertising consumption is loss of resources anyway.


Which is next on my powerdown list: ban all forms of advertising save word of mouth or public directories.


How will you get this ban promoted and enforced?


I'd like to see now some discussion of how you/we intend to promote and enforce these proposals. Thanks.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 11:44:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '
')As long as we're looking at pie in the sky responses to peak oil, I have a single change that would change the entire world paradigm of consumption.



I thought this thread was meant to be realistic proposals of what we are doing or plan to do, not "pie in the sky." I must have misunderstood.


If this thread is just more fantasy, it is a waste of time.
:x
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 11:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')How will you get this ban promoted and enforced?


Through education.

Provide the empirical evidence that non-renewable forms of energy are going to decline, that solar is a marginal replacement at best with current technology, explain energy and overshoot, and get oil producing countries to disclose actual reserves so we can plan in accordance.

In other words, a Manhattan project for a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world around us.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Nicholai » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 12:09:43

WARNING, some viewers my find this disturbing!
Taken from an exceprt of George Monbiot's blog.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the new summary published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), you will find a table which links different cuts to likely temperatures(6). To prevent global warming from eventually exceeding 2°, it suggests, by 2050 the world needs to cut its emissions to roughly 15% of the volume in 2000.

I looked up the global figures for carbon dioxide production in 2000(7) and divided it by the current population(8). This gives a baseline figure of 3.58 tonnes of CO2 per person. An 85% cut means that (if the population remains constant) the global output per head should be reduced to 0.537t by 2050. The UK currently produces 9.6 tonnes per head and the US 23.6t(9,10). Reducing these figures to 0.537t means a 94.4% cut in the UK and a 97.7% cut in the US. But the world population will rise in the same period. If we assume a population of 9bn in 2050(11), the cuts rise to 95.9% in the UK and 98.3% in the US.


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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 13:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '[')

In other words, a Manhattan project for a paradigm shift in our thinking about the world around us.


How are you promoting and implementing this "Manhattan Project"? Who are you working with to promote and implement it?


Can you be specific, please.


Thanks.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 13:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'g')et oil producing countries to disclose actual reserves so we can plan in accordance.



How do you intend to get oil producing countries to disclose actual reserves? Who are you working with to get this information from oil producing countries?


Please be as specific as you can, thanks.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby LoneSnark » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 14:59:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are you promoting and implementing this "Manhattan Project"? Who are you working with to promote and implement it?

My plan has been demonstrated to work before and I have no reason to believe it will not work in the future. Also, it has the added bonus of making me and those that help me impliment it filthy rich.

Current futures contracts for oil delivery in 2012 are selling for about $82 right now. What we should do is borrow as much money as we can (2nd and 3rd mortgages) and buy as many of these contracts as we can. Get all your friends to help. Especially those that can borrow a billion dollars. This will push the contracts higher, say to $200. As a result, the rest of society will see oil will be expensive in the future and begin powering down today.

When 2012 gets here and oil is actually $400, we'll sell the contracts for many times what we paid, getting filthy rich in the process. Meanwhile, the rest of society began powering down back in 2007, so the dislocations will be kept to a minimum.

There is only one drawback, of course. If we are wrong and oil is cheap in the future then we will lose everything. Of course, how likely is that?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby DavidFolks » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '
')As long as we're looking at pie in the sky responses to peak oil, I have a single change that would change the entire world paradigm of consumption.



I thought this thread was meant to be realistic proposals of what we are doing or plan to do, not "pie in the sky." I must have misunderstood.


If this thread is just more fantasy, it is a waste of time.
:x


Sorry Ludi, I was being flip.

I believe that the changes discussed are valid, implementable, and useful.

I even believe that changing to a global currency based on the watt, and pricing according to total embodied energy would put us all on the right track for a global fix.

Further, I believe that individuals should exercise any and all of the suggestions posted here to the limit of their abilities and resources, as I believe that enough micro changes adopted by enough people can save us from a catastrophic transition to a more eco-friendly global society.

I even think that we can do this by educating people, and instilling new values in the next couple of generations.

I believe we have the time.

MQ does not.

And while I can appreciate his passion, sincerity, and obvious attention to detail and research, I don't think his proposal can be imposed on the world as it is. Thus the flippant "pie in the sky" comment.

I hope we move towards most of the changes he suggests, and that we succeed through education, because I don't think we'll ever succumb to them being forced on us.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:23:34

What methods and pathways to education do you plan to implement to further these proposals? How do you see us "educating people" or how are you yourself educating people?


I'm trying to get this as specific and as less-vague as possible.


Thanks.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Iaato » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 21:25:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'A')s long as we're looking at pie in the sky responses to peak oil, I have a single change that would change the entire world paradigm of consumption.

All it would require is that every nation on earth adopt a single currency, the watt.

Everything would be priced by the total embodied energy to produce it. People would be paid by the total energy they expend, or save.

This single change would affect everything, and shift us to an energy sustainable paradigm.


Outstanding suggestion, David. And I believe that we will not have a choice. With energy constriction, people will begin to think in these terms, naturally. The system will select for efficiency in energy savings, once energy is no longer an unlimited source.

And the dollar is already dead, anyway. I'm sure the TPTB are petrified that if they cannot replace the $ with something acceptable, whatever bubbles up (barter, gold, trade-labor, or the Joule) will be out of their control and not subject to manipulation.

I am so done with our entire culture. It is so sick. I am now making conscious changes every day that divest me and my family from the consumption culture and move us towards a simple, connected life.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 04 Dec 2007, 23:04:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat methods and pathways to education do you plan to implement to further these proposals? How do you see us "educating people" or how are you yourself educating people?


I'm trying to get this as specific and as less-vague as possible.


Then write to people in positions of authority who can answer those questions. I have no plans to try and implement any of this except through the public presentations I do.

First, we need to try and expose what things we can and need to do to powerdown.
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