by Dezakin » Mon 03 Dec 2007, 18:44:10
The guy is wrong. He misquotes figures from the IAEA redbook on uranium resources which accounts for uranium extractable from mines open today at less than $130/kg. Its a bit because the spot price is nearly double that today, exploration for high grade uranium ores hasn't been done since the 50's, and every time you drop the ore grade by two, you find ten times the resources.
The energy return on mining in light water reactors today is well over 500 from measured energy inputs versus fuel output in ore grades of 300ppm. Extrapolating with the simple assumption that energy cost is proportional to ore grade (and we have good reason based on low ore grades in gold mining that that this is overly pessimistic) that places the resource base of fuels extractable with an energy return of 15-30 in the range of 1 trillion tons (from phosphate and shale ores)
This is before you even consider breeder reactors, which utilize fuel some 200 times as efficiently.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I believe the arguments that even if these other resource constraints were resolved, we're not seeing any worldwide response to the upcoming real declines in oil production, other than perhaps military preparations.
What declines in production? Other than oil, which has a number of replacements that take several years to come online with a steady price signal of over $40/bbl, what do you see entering decline? And why would you suspect that such things dont have replacements?
Things like mecury production went into decline, but thats because the market moved on to cheaper replacements and overall demand for mercury declined.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nless mankind, or at least societies individually, are going to come together and work as a team for the good of each other under some kind of wildly popular new breed of communal economic systems, where are the capital and skilled labor going to come from under our current soulless capitalist systems as institutions and investors struggle through the economic chaos peak oil may cause?
You dont see this particular diatribe as the least bit cultish? Its like the sort of thing some college student with a giant Che poster would say.