[Andrew_S]

Fertiliser supply problems.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ews | 28 November, 2007
By Howard Walsh

A LOGISTICAL supply problem with fertilisers in spring 2008 is now a reality not a possibility, say fertiliser companies.

World demand is outstripping supply and farmers are being advised not only to make sure they have ordered what they need, but to take delivery and make sure they have it.

"This coming season, the most likely situation is a shortage,” said Yara’s England and Wales business manager Steven Chisholm.

World demand for grain production for both feed and biofuel was currently outstripping supply and that was driving the demand for fertilisers.

"All I would say is order it and get it delivered – ownership will be nine tenths of the law this spring.”
<snip>
"India still need to buy more tonnes for December and with time and product running out fast in China expect this bull run to continue well in to 2008,” said a spokesman.

[Dvanharn]

The article you refer to talks about shortages of fertilizer in the global market, with shiploads even being diverted to "more lucrative" destinations.

The next news item is an article from the NY Times on the Malawi's turnaround in food production:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')armers explain Malawi’s extraordinary turnaround — one with broad implications for hunger-fighting methods across Africa — with one word: fertilizer.

[Ludi]

You can build bat houses and collect the guano.

Bat Houses

[Andrew_S]

Thanks for the phosphorus info.

wisconsin_cur has posted a thread about extra fertilizer use in Malawi relieving famine this year:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic34469.html

[Chesire]

Well the US wants energy and the world wants food. Guess who wins if we have a 90 day mexican stand off over fertlizer .

[Windmills]

Doesn't the Haber-Bosch process require natural gas in order to be produced economically, or at least relatively inexpensively? If electrolysis of water to get hydrogen is required, that is going to drive up the price and the end effect will be same. It won't matter if it's a material shortage or scarcity produced because of high prices, people are going to suffer along with their agricultural systems when nitrogen fertilizer becomes more difficult to obtain. It'll be one of several blows to the "green" revolution.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'N')itrogen can always be extracted from the air using the Haber-Bosch process but phosphate fertilizers only come from the earth and those stocks are limited. The world's known supplies of phosphate are peaking.

[frankthetank]

Maybe they should be bottling the water that flows through New Orleans and resell it to farmers up north?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he dead zone is caused by nutrient enrichment from the Mississippi River, particularly nitrogen and phosphorous. Watersheds within the Mississippi River Basin drain much of the United States, from Montana to Pennsylvania and extending southward along the Mississippi River. Most of the nitrogen input comes from major farming states in the Mississippi River Valley, including Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Nitrogen and phosphorous enter the river through upstream runoff of fertilizers, soil erosion, animal wastes, and sewage.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'D')oesn't the Haber-Bosch process require natural gas in order to be produced economically, or at least relatively inexpensively?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')t's actually very scary JD. Much phosphorus is locked up in agriculture topsoil and woody material. As drought and abuse aggravate soil erosion the stuff we put into the land is increasingly washing into the oceans. Such is the nature of the eutrophication that has damaged most inland and coastal waters.

Phosphorus was returned from the oceans to land via bird guanos and salmon runs. These have both been wiped out.

no phosphorus no quorn (tm)

[frankthetank]

JD-

Didn't the biosphere project show that might not work very smoothly

[JohnDenver]

BTW, here's the production stats for phosphate rock from the IFA (units: 1000 tonnes):

1999: 146 349
2000: 146 388
2001: 144 068
2002: 154 529
2003: 157 056
2004: 165 325
2005: 172 126
2006: 167 600

Hardly a picture of terminal decline.
Source

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..
China is the largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world:

Source

And:
"60% of China's nitrogen fertilizer production is currently based on coal."
Source

Economics clearly aren't a problem. Coal is far cheaper per btu than NG. Peak oil is a complete non-issue for nitrogen fertilizer.

But hey... Keep swinging guys. Maybe one of these days you might actually hit the ball.

[Pops]

But wait, if N can be made from air why is it so expensive and the main input cost for corn and most any other crop aside from fuel and seed?

And one other question; if most P is Locked up in ag topsoil I wonder where else it might better be?

Should not the question be about the amendments needed to UnLock it?

[Andrew_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ut wait, if N can be made from air why is it so expensive and the main input cost for corn and most any other crop aside from fuel and seed?

[Pops]

Sorry A.S. I was pointing out (simply) if there were a cheaper way to make N then someone would surely be making a killing doing it.

The most crucial input to the most crucial ag input of course is the cost of energy.

Like all in else.

Sorry.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'J')D-

Didn't the biosphere project show that might not work very smoothly

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'B')TW, here's the production stats for phosphate rock from the IFA (units: 1000 tonnes):

1999: 146 349
2000: 146 388
2001: 144 068
2002: 154 529
2003: 157 056
2004: 165 325
2005: 172 126
2006: 167 600

Hardly a picture of terminal decline.
Source