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Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:06:15

With regards to what MonteQuest said about the "takeover method":

Destroying ecosystems is a bad idea.

However, not all ecosystems are equal.

The Amazonian rain forest and the Louisiana wetlands are probably more important to the global environment than the Mojave Desert ecosystem.

That's not to say that we should wantonly destroy the deserts of the world but it seems to me that there are worse places to put a solar panel.

Put another way, destroying a section of the Mojave causes less biodiversity loss than an equal section of say, the Amazon basin.

I think this philosophy should be called "environmental triage"
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'Y')ou are still doing it. Claiming a detriment without quantifying the damage.


Thermodynamics guarantees a detriment. 2nd law.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, where is this line?


At what is sustainable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', '"')We must learn to live within carrying capacity without trying to enlarge it. We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. The last best hope for mankind is ecological modesty."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd land that is used to feed ourselves was in use by other systems. So, is it that the 'other systems' are privileged to use resources but man is just a scourge?


We already appropriate 40% of NPP. How much more do you want?

Besides, our scale of use of resources is a result of overshoot from fossil fuels. We cannot replace that phantom capacity by the takeover method.

Were we 2 to 3 billion and using solar with a powerdowned lifestyle and restricted per capita consumption, then our footprint might be small enough to not impact other systems negatively.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') never advocated the frivolous use of sustainables. Now you are preaching to the choir.....


It's not about frivolity; it's about scale of the use.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:41:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ith regards to what MonteQuest said about the "takeover method":

Destroying ecosystems is a bad idea.


Certainly, I do agree!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'H')owever, not all ecosystems are equal.

The Amazonian rain forest and the Louisiana wetlands are probably more important to the global environment than the Mojave Desert ecosystem.

That's not to say that we should wantonly destroy the deserts of the world but it seems to me that there are worse places to put a solar panel.

Put another way, destroying a section of the Mojave causes less biodiversity loss than an equal section of say, the Amazon basin.


But, here we assume destruction, not change. 'We' have already changed the world dramatically, fundamentally, radically. (Would that be redundantly?) :) For all we know, more shade and less albedo, would enhance the life of the desert. You know what they say about 'assume'.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') think this philosophy should be called "environmental triage"


Humans are myopic and opportunistic. That is why we are in this fix. If we really did 'the best we could' for the planet our children will inherit, it would be a much different place. I'm not advocating a blanket trade off for present day comforts. But to stand staunchly against our existence on this planet is much of what JD does, but from the other end.

Best, Dan.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')Put another way, destroying a section of the Mojave causes less biodiversity loss than an equal section of say, the Amazon basin.


Any loss of biodiversity is unacceptable.

While your above statement may be quite correct, thinking that the desert is less diverse than say a forest or chaparral is erroneous.

Take the most biologically diverse county in the entire US.

San Diego County, California

1600 angiosperms (flowering plants)

Of that 1600, 665 of them occur in the desert.

Edward Abbey once wrote of Canyonlands National Park: "...The least inhabited, least inhibited, least improved, least civilized...most grim bleak barren desolate and savage quarter of the state of Utah—the best by far." Like Abbey, I, too, love the desert. The desert visitor tends not to revere the desert as he would the green pine forest. Thus, as a result of unintentional bias, the more fragile desert plays second fiddle. If you can't handle the hard facts of solitude, searing heat, and scarce water; you are not likely to smell the flowers.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:58:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', ' ')For all we know, more shade and less albedo, would enhance the life of the desert. You know what they say about 'assume'.


I hope you are kidding, because that is the epitome of hubris towards nature.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Indian never trusted the "White Man," as he appeared to the Indian as quite presumptuous; a quality they never fathomed. How could anyone presume to improve upon Nature, much less, out live it?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not advocating a blanket trade off for present day comforts. But to stand staunchly against our existence on this planet is much of what JD does, but from the other end.


Who is doing this? Certainly not me. Nature dictates what we can do.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby Narz » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:28:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Any loss of biodiversity is unacceptable.

A flux in biodiversity in natural & inevitable.

If it weren't for the devastation of the dinosaurs most of the large mammals (including ourselves) we know today would not exist.

Not saying it's morally right to shortsightedlty rape the Earth for our own temporary benefit but it's not unsurprising that humans place their own species above all others when it comes to survival.

Ultimately, I tend to think the universe is neutral as to whether we or any species makes it or not. After all the Earth did spawn us. Maybe, as George Carlin said, she wanted the plastic.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Any loss of biodiversity is unacceptable.

A flux in biodiversity in natural & inevitable.

If it weren't for the devastation of the dinosaurs most of the large mammals (including ourselves) we know today would not exist.


At present, animals are believed to be going extinct at 100 to 1,000 times the usual rate, leading many researchers to claim that we are in the midst of a mass extinction event faster than that which wiped out the dinosaurs.

Many scientists blame the death of the dinosaurs on an asteroid impact about 65 million years ago. That wasn't a flux, that was an extinction event.

In the Permian extinction 250 million years ago, about 90% of all species died out.

The current mass extinction, like global warming is man caused.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne in eight plant species are in danger of extinction within the next 30 years, according to the IUCN Red List of threatened species, along with one in eight bird species and a quarter of all mammals. The Audubon Society reports that 30% of North American songbird species are in significant decline. Worldwide populations of frogs and other amphibians have been declining drastically, and a recent detailed study shows that of 5743 known species of amphibians recorded in the last couple of centuries, 34 are now extinct, while another 122 are probably extinct: they can no longer be found. Even worse, of these 122 missing species, 113 have disappeared since 1980!

In the oceans, 90% of all large fish have disappeared in the last half century, thanks to overfishing.


Any further loss of biodiversity is unacceptable.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby Narz » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')ny further loss of biodiversity is unacceptable.

Unacceptable perhaps but also inevitable.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 02:18:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'U')nacceptable perhaps but also inevitable.


Only if we try to "takeover" more area and habitats for renewables use.

Decentralized energy generation using existing rooftops, towers, etc. would be a start.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 02:52:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'Y')ou are still doing it. Claiming a detriment without quantifying the damage.


Thermodynamics guarantees a detriment. 2nd law.


We did this a couple of years ago about combined cycle and complexity. You are still being obtuse.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, where is this line?


At what is sustainable.


And you refuse to quantify. Is it the stick we use to cultivate and hunt? Do you shower and cloth?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Catton', '"')We must learn to live within carrying capacity without trying to enlarge it. We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. The last best hope for mankind is ecological modesty."

And again, you are preaching to the choir.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd land that is used to feed ourselves was in use by other systems. So, is it that the 'other systems' are privileged to use resources but man is just a scourge?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')e already appropriate 40% of NPP. How much more do you want?

Strawman. I 'don't want'. But keep playing the game.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')esides, our scale of use of resources is a result of overshoot from fossil fuels. We cannot replace that phantom capacity by the takeover method.

And, I never said otherwise. Why play this game?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ere we 2 to 3 billion and using solar with a powerdowned lifestyle and restricted per capita consumption, then our footprint might be small enough to not impact other systems negatively.

Yet you claim but don't quantify. I don't know the number, and that was not even the issue to start. But keep playing your game...


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') never advocated the frivolous use of sustainables. Now you are preaching to the choir.....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t's not about frivolity; it's about scale of the use.

Word games. You are getting boring.... And for such a seasoned poster why doesn't it say 'lakeweb wrote:'. Are you just getting lazy?
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 03:09:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', ' ')We did this a couple of years ago about combined cycle and complexity. You are still being obtuse.


Not if you grasp 2nd law. It was covered in the paper.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd you refuse to quantify. Is it the stick we use to cultivate and hunt? Do you shower and cloth?


Refuse? I don't know what is sustainable, do you?

"We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. "

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')trawman. I 'don't want'. But keep playing the game.


Then what was your point?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut keep playing your game...


Not playing any game. I never play games.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ord games. You are getting boring....

Then don't respond. I was quite clear.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 11:32:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', ' ')We did this a couple of years ago about combined cycle and complexity. You are still being obtuse.


Not if you grasp 2nd law. It was covered in the paper.


But I do and the paper is badly flawed.

Solar Share

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd you refuse to quantify. Is it the stick we use to cultivate and hunt? Do you shower and cloth?


Refuse? I don't know what is sustainable, do you?


No I don't. But you are still referencing a flawed paper as if the answer is there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '"')We must rely on renewable resources consumed no faster than at sustained yield rates. "

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')trawman. I 'don't want'. But keep playing the game.

Then what was your point?

You ask a strawman question and now ask this!? You are kidding, right?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut keep playing your game...

Not playing any game. I never play games.

Great, then address the flaws in the paper.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ord games. You are getting boring....

Then don't respond. I was quite clear.

It is clear that you snip and avoid and wave your 'second law' banner. The second law is just the way the universe works. It does not mandate that human actions are all bad. The universe has no moral structure. Morals are human constructs.

When a moderator at PO goes off the deep end, it affects the credibility of PO

Best, Dan.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 11:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'T')he second law is just the way the universe works. It does not mandate that human actions are all bad.



Whoa. Where does Monte say "human actions are all bad"?

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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 12:39:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'T')he second law is just the way the universe works. It does not mandate that human actions are all bad.



Whoa. Where does Monte say "human actions are all bad"?

8O


Ok, that was a stretch. But it has been a long time since I've been here and he still doesn't seem to understand that thermodynamics is just part of the mechanics of the universe.

Monte on the second law

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Monte', 'H')istory has shown us that every technological breakthrough has produced unforeseen secondary effects more disastrous than if it had never been invented.


Now, that is quite a claim.

Best, Dan.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 12:53:20

I chased it down. Here is where it starts:

Monte and me on the second law

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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 13:03:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', '.'). Here is the equivalent area for all the U.S. energy demands. Fully packed heliocentric and EV transportation.

Image

The problem with solar is cost. And because of the cost it will not be a viable option concerning our present condition.
That red / magenta square may not look like much up here but if you were a construction worker standing there with your "boots on the ground" that would be the biggest project you'd ever see in your life. You could spin around 360 degrees with a set of binoculars and see solar panels for as far as the eye can see.

My gut says that one square would be "bigger" then the entire freeway interstate system and I doubt we have the money to do that a 2nd time around.


I love this graphic. It brings the entire issue into such stark relief. Do we all die? Or do we use THAT much land to replace all fossil fuel use and then some in the most wasteful country in the world?

So here's the next obvious question....what is the surface area of every rooftop in the United States? More than that little black dot...or less?
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 13:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', ' ')We did this a couple of years ago about combined cycle and complexity. You are still being obtuse.


Not if you grasp 2nd law. It was covered in the paper.


But I do and the paper is badly flawed.


Doesn't negate 2nd law.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o I don't. But you are still referencing a flawed paper as if the answer is there.


Not. My quote was from William Catton.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou ask a strawman question and now ask this!? You are kidding, right?

You posted this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'A')nd land that is used to feed ourselves was in use by other systems. So, is it that the 'other systems' are privileged to use resources but man is just a scourge?

I replied that we already appropriate 40% of NPP. Haven't we already gotten more than our fair share of that privilege?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')reat, then address the flaws in the paper.

What flaws do you refer to?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is clear that you snip and avoid and wave your 'second law' banner. The second law is just the way the universe works. It does not mandate that human actions are all bad.

Bad? Who said anything about bad? Or morals? 2nd law governs all physical activity, green, renewable or otherwise.

It tells us that there are limits to sustainability.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 13:13:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')
Generally speaking, the load on the grid is about 50% less at night than during the day. So we already have the capacity to charge large numbers of EVs at night. This charging won't harm the grid, and in fact will allow it to operate more efficiently by leveling the load.


SCORE!!!!

Of course.....which means the grid isn't the issue....just the extra generation. So we keep the base load plants running a few more hours in the evening, using more coal than we do now but not alot more, particularly if you throw in more than a little incentive to use less ( make it cost more ). california appears to have done a decent job of keeping efficiency high by keeping cost high, they use alot less per capita than bunches of the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, we use Arizona for what desert is for....to build out the largest solar project in the history of man.
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 13:16:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'O')k, that was a stretch. But it has been a long time since I've been here and he still doesn't seem to understand that thermodynamics is just part of the mechanics of the universe.


That governs all physical activity. Tells us what we can and cannot do and the consequences.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Monte', 'H')istory has shown us that every technological breakthrough has produced unforeseen secondary effects more disastrous than if it had never been invented.


Now, that is quite a claim.

Best, Dan.


Put it in context.

"History has shown us that every technological breakthrough has produced unforeseen secondary effects more disastrous than if it had never been invented. Every technological invention has appeared because the ones which preceded it rendered necessary the ones which followed. The faster we make new "transformers," the faster available energy is used up. We are always playing "catch-up." The problems proliferate faster than the solutions."

We aren't always playing catch up?
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Re: Peak Oil : Scalability and Orders of Magnitude

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 13:30:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', ' ')SCORE!!!!

Of course.....which means the grid isn't the issue.....


Not.

The Western Transmission grid: Urgent call for Investment

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')imply put, energy markets and growth in the West have outstripped a transmission system that hasn’t expanded meaningfully in over a decade.
Today’s Western transmission system has many important
bottlenecks that limit the ability to use surplus power in
one area to help meet demand (or remedy shortages) in
other areas. These bottlenecks have contributed to higher
power prices at times by keeping available power from
moving to locations where market prices were highest and
the power was most needed.


U.S. ELECTRIC POWER GRID

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. power transmission system is in urgent need of modernization. Growth in electricity demand and investment in new power plants has not been matched by investment in new transmission facilities. Maintenance expenditures have decreased 1% per year since 1992. Existing transmission facilities were not designed for the current level of demand, resulting in an increased number of "bottlenecks," which increase costs to consumers and elevate the risk of blackouts.
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