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Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby roccman » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 21:06:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '
')
leave it out, mate. You sound like the weedy little guy urging on his jock buddy from the sidelines as he pounds on some poor kid. Put your pom-poms away, sunshine.


You have not followed threads I post to very closely have you Butt?

Monte and I are not buds...however monte and I agree on major issues.

No Butt - you are missing the diplomacy I am employing here to quell the inane posts of LH.

Those who have read my posts know what I am speaking of.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby yeahbut » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 21:42:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'B')utt


Killer. You're in the wrong game.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Thu 29 Nov 2007, 22:59:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'I')t was also a very brave thing of LH to do, given the unpleasant hostility of some members.
And as for being able to take on new ideas and alter one's outlook, the ego of your average human(never mind the average resident of PO.com!) is simply unable to cope with that. LH is to be commended for that, not mocked. If only that capacity existed in more people, we surely wouldn't have made half as much of a mess of the world.
Very true...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'B')utt

Killer. You're in the wrong game.
Here, I think you're going a little overboard... :roll:
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby yeahbut » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 00:31:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'B')utt

Killer. You're in the wrong game.
Here, I think you're going a little overboard... :roll:


Perhaps that was a bit cryptic. Allow me to translate...Killer(that is just hilarious). You're in the wrong game(your talents are being wasted here, with word play like 'butt', how is it you don't have a career on the comedy circuit?) :razz:
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 03:14:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'B')utt

Killer. You're in the wrong game.
Here, I think you're going a little overboard... :roll:


Perhaps that was a bit cryptic. Allow me to translate...Killer(that is just hilarious). You're in the wrong game(your talents are being wasted here, with word play like 'butt', how is it you don't have a career on the comedy circuit?) :razz:
:lol: Ahh, you should have just said that, I really had no idea.

"Killer" can mean cool and though I haven't heard it meaning funny it could be slang for funny. But I've also heard "Killer" used as a derogatory roughly meaning "pretend tough guy", which would change the meaning and tone of your message significantly...
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 03:36:19

Peak Everything

By the way, looking over these posts I'm thinking "Peak World Resources" or "Peak World Consumption" might be better terms then "Peak Oil". Oil is the big dog, but most other things are running down due to world population pressure. Energy, friendly climate, available water, metals, ocean life, human life...

Well, if it does need a new name I'm pretty sure Peak Consumerism wouldn't be PC. Hahaha, playing with acronyms... :-D
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Doly » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 07:57:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')b]Peak Everything


The first people to talk about 'Peak everything' (not by that name) were some guys called the Club of Rome, in a famous book in the seventies called "The Limits to Growth". Their computer-generated graphs (in a time when almost nobody had computers) showed beautiful peaks and collapse of a number of things, including population, food and nonrenewable resources and industrial production.

They also had some practical suggestions about how to avoid peaking, with beautiful graphs demonstrating this, that everybody proceeded to ignore.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 11:51:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')hey also had some practical suggestions about how to avoid peaking, with beautiful graphs demonstrating this, that everybody proceeded to ignore.
Yeah and I expect most people today will continue to ignore the reason for these easy to see problems as prices creep higher and higher. The romans can't understand how their empire can be crumbling.

I'm just going to enjoy the show and eat popcorn as rome burns...
[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 12:10:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 's')team_cannon, thanks for your contributions to this thread. I'm going to link this to some peeps on another forum.
Here's another good one. :-D

What does doom mean to you?
http://www.peakoil.com/post559127.html#559127
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 16:45:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'I')'m just going to enjoy the show and eat popcorn as rome burns...
[smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]

I hope you have it stockpiled. ;)

Really though, if you're still where you are & not on an isolated rural piece of land, don't you think your neighbors will hear the familiar pop that reminds them of happier times and raid your home? I know it's metaphorical but I have a hard time believing anyone is really serious even in that. For me anyway, my carefree days of escapism (symbolized by movies coupled w/ popcorn) are over.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'H')ere's another good one. :-D

What does doom mean to you?
http://www.peakoil.com/post559127.html#559127

Yes, I read start thru to page six last night (until my GF complained the goddamn computer was keeping her up), I'll probably read the rest today.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 00:52:58

Still reading but not so sure if Montes assumptions are 100% accurate. As more as I read as more I come to the conclusion carrying capacity is in direct relationship with lifestyle. A wasteful lifestyle reduces the carrying capacity immense, while we can expect a higher carrying capacity with a more careful use of resources.

Human carrying capacity is the maximum population that can be supported at a given living standard by the interaction of any given human-ecological system. This apparently simple concept has many nuances and is rarely used by population scientists. However, in rejecting this term, purists risk making a terrible conceptual flaw, that of thinking that environmental and human resources are largely irrelevant to human population size.

Peak oil will initially have an negative effect on wasteful societies, which results in a higher carrying capacity.

It is irrefutable that human ingenuity and cooperation can increase human carrying capacity. But even so, human welfare will continue to depend on the external world, including for resources such as food and water. Humans are neither computer ciphers nor caged mice. That is to say, while a given area might tolerate a theoretically higher density of human population than it does, the reality of human evolution in distinct groups, separated by culture, religion, and language, means that this theoretical maximum will rarely be attained. A degree of underused carrying capacity can be viewed as a desirable buffer around disparate groups, vital for reducing tension and preventing conflict.

Still reading but prepared to debate this here if anyone wants to.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:08:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'S')till reading but not so sure if Montes assumptions are 100% accurate. As more as I read as more I come to the conclusion carrying capacity is in direct relationship with lifestyle.


Yes, with changes in our lifestyle we might be able to support the upper end at 3 billion if we restored the environmental damage. 1 billon if not.

But 6.7 billion and counting, especially with India and China becoming homo colossus? Never, at any lifestyle. The environment could not tolerate the load. It can't now. We are living on ghost acreage.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:14:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')es, with changes in our lifestyle we might be able to support the upper end at 3 billion if we restored the environmental damage. 1 billon if not.

But 6.7 billion and counting? Never, at any lifestlye. The environment could not tolerate the load. It can't now. We are living on ghost acreage.


I agree that overshot of carrying capacity will result in a rapid die-off.

But I can't find any reliable figures of what the carrying capacity of this planet is. Can you elaborate your figures? I can't find any logical reference to a sustainable human population limit of 2 and if we change our lifestyle maybe 3 billion. (How much would we have to change the lifestyle t achieve this?)

Any peer reviewed papers you can quote?
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 01:22:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', ' ')But I can't find any reliable figures of what the carrying capacity of this planet is. Can you elaborate your figures? I can't find any logical reference to a sustainable human population limit of 2 and if we change our lifestyle maybe 3 billion. (How much would we have to change the lifestyle t achieve this?)

Any peer reviewed papers you can quote?


Here's one of the leading pherogist's take with 17 leading commentators in the field of population and development contributing their views on the 2 to 3 billion estimate.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html

14 studies with a median value of 2 to 5 billion. 1 to 3 billion using energy as the metic.

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002.html
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 02:13:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'P')eak oil will initially have an negative effect on wasteful societies, which results in a higher carrying capacity.
It's true that collapse certainly slows down a societies exhaustion of resources. But collapse wouldn't increase that societies carrying capacity.

Hypothetically, if the US suffered an economic collapse and could no longer buy oil, and then if that unbought oil went to China. That oil would increase China's carrying capacity. But with peak oil, the oil is just not there. So no one is getting a boost in carrying capacity.

People use energy to get the most of the area they live in. Water pumps take energy, sanitation takes energy, food storage takes energy, food transportation takes energy, food preparation takes energy... If the energy is not there, these other things go away and the area becomes less habitable. Losing an energy resource is not going to result in a higher carrying capacity.

Also as seen with the collapse of the Soviet Union, life expectancy goes down rapidly as a result of a simple economic collapse. Collapse of real oil resources would be more devastating. When Cuba restructured after losing much of their oil inputs from the collapsed Soviet Union, many people in Cuba were starving and many people died. Waste bands shrunk and lifespans shortened. Their carrying capacity didn't expand after they got rid of waste. That just doesn't happen.

Image
Even though economic depression takes people out of cars and reduces fuel usage, it doesn't put more food in their mouths or increase their likelihood to survive to the next day. Even simple economic depression can reduce carrying capacity. Resources just not being there is likely to be worse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'I') agree that overshot of carrying capacity will result in a rapid die-off.
But remember this, rapid can have varying definitions. Russia and Ukraine are experiencing massive die-offs and losses in their populations. "Ukraine lost 1 percent of its population between 1996 and 1997." Much of that is people not having children due to poor economics, though Russia might claim otherwise. So let me just point out that die-offs don't have to be sudden, but they are certain.

Possible examples of slow peaceful die-offs:

Ukraine
"lost nearly 1 percent of its population between 1996 and 1997"
http://www.reachukraine.org/regional/living.htm

Russia
"Russia -- currently 142 million -- could shrink by 20 million by the year 2030 ...many are in no rush to start families, mostly for financial reasons."
http://tinyurl.com/32twns
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby lakeweb » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 03:09:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'H')ypothetically, if the US suffered an economic collapse and could no longer buy oil, and then if that unbought oil went to China. That oil would increase China's carrying capacity...


Now I know why I stopped reading PO. This is so Monte. 800 million in China now live without oil. They are poor farmers, nothing a poster here could even comprehend. Yet the posters here hold them up to our standard of living. Like their life depends on oil. Well, it hasn't, and it doesn't. It is the other 400 million aspiring migrant workers and upper class of China that you are talking about.

I think my stay at PO is coming to an end, again.

So much belief, so little critical thinking.......

China is about the unrest of the working class, peak oil is just a trigger....
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 03:21:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere's one of the leading pherogist's take with 17 leading commentators in the field of population and development contributing their views on the 2 to 3 billion estimate.

http://eco.gn.apc.org/pubs/smail.html

14 studies with a median value of 2 to 5 billion. 1 to 3 billion using energy as the metic.

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002.html


Leading pherogist's? Any evidence supporting this statement? And the links you quoted are not peer reviewed published studies.

Btw. what is a pherogist?

Montequest in regards to carrying capacity and overshoot I agree with most of what you wrote in numerous threads here. But I am not convinced the figures you've posted are that accurate. How do your sources calculate the carrying capacity. Can you give me a sample calculation and show me what they put in consideration in their calculations to arrive at this figures? Can you post this please here on this board?
Last edited by Lighthouse on Sat 01 Dec 2007, 04:33:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 03:31:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'H')ypothetically, if the US suffered an economic collapse and could no longer buy oil, and then if that unbought oil went to China. That oil would increase China's carrying capacity. But with peak oil, the oil is just not there. So no one is getting a boost in carrying capacity.


I think this statement is a bit simplified. And yes, I know of Jevons Paradox, which can not be applied if a finite resource is running out. It only can be applied when a resource is consevered because of efficient technology. In the above scenario the whole world including China would suffer because the supply would never reach the demand.
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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 04:29:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'L')ike their life depends on oil. Well, it hasn't, and it doesn't.
Maybe you missed my point about maximizing ones local resources with energy, everyone does that to one extend or another.

As I explained before, people use energy to get the most of the area they live in. If they only have a few gallons a month for a farm tractor or even if they use forged farm implements, that's still using energy to maximize the resources in their area. That tractor fuel raises that area's carrying capacity. Losing an energy resource (tractor fuel) is not going to result in a higher carrying capacity. As seen with the period of food shortages and starvation in Cuba, after the collapse of the Soviet Oil supplies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'T')hey are poor farmers, nothing a poster here could even comprehend.
I don't know about you but I've lived outside the US. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lakeweb', 'I') think my stay at PO is coming to an end, again.
If talking about world resources blows your fuse, sure go. I ain't begging you to say. But if you do stay, I would appreciate a more cool and reasoned approach. If you don't think China is heading for a die-off, tell us why.

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Re: Is "Peak Oil" really that bad?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 01 Dec 2007, 04:30:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'H')ow do your sources calculate the carrying capacity. Can you give me a sample calculation and show me what they put in consideration in their calculations to arrive at this figures? Can you post this please here on this board?
Maybe check their bibliographies... Or google for a bit more of their work and read more to answer that question. The full details of many studies are often in journals which charge for the article. Also you might be able to find some of these authors in the Journal indexes of your most local large city library, you may be able to find their full research.

It is a difficult question, here's why...

These "Equations" often are complex computer simulations which entail volumes of data describing resources all around the world. If you didn't find an easy equation in a study on this subject, this may be why. I really don't feel like looking up equations tonight, so I'll give you a few hints where to look. And maybe Monte can help too...

Google: "calculating the earth's carrying capacity"

A greatly simplified example that came up...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"The Vancouver-Lower Fraser Valley Region of British Columbia, Canada, serves as an example. For simplicity's sake consider the region's ecological use of forested and arable land for domestic food, forest products, and fossil energy consumption alone: assuming an average Canadian diet and current management practices, 1.1 ha of land per capita is required for food production, 0.5 ha for forest products, and 3.5 ha would be required to produce the biomass energy (ethanol) equivalent of current per capita fossil energy consumption. (Alternatively, a comparable area of temperate forest is required exclusively to assimilate current per capita C02 emissions (see 'Calculating the Ecological Footprint'). Thus, to support just their food and fossil fuel consumption, the region's 1.7 million people require, conservatively, 8.7 million ha of land in continuous production. The valley, however, is only about 400,000 ha. Our regional population therefore 'imports' the productive capacity of at least 22 times as much land to support its consumer lifestyles as it actually occupies (see Figure 20.3). At about 425 people/km2 the population density of the valley is comparable to that of the Netherlands (442 people/km2)" [p.p. 369-371]
http://dieoff.org/page13.htm


Wiki: Carrying Capacity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity
Their "summary" on calculations is a few pages. :roll:
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