by aflurry » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 15:36:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')he fact that y'all are predicting the end of the world makes me even more suspicious, on general principal if nothing else.
fair enough, but i think the criticisms of the general millenarianism present on this board aren't pertinent to the topic.
if fact, i think the OP is bringing up feelings that are just as common to the general population as to people who post here. And his/her concern for where they fit into his/her self-understanding is valuable. i think taking an honest look at what appear to be feelings of hostility toward civilization can help clarify what the source of our mututal fascination with peak oil really is.
honestly, those who berate doomers have just as much baggage to examine. The cornucopic mythology of endless progress until we blast off into space and colonize the planets is 10X as religious as the doomer scenario.
And finally, there is one greatly misunderstood reason that the cornucopians always seem right, that they can run around and blithely scoff that doomers have been predicting the end for centuries and it has never happens. Two words: survivorship bias.
There is an emerging archeological picture being formed right now in which it is clear that the norm for civilizations is failure, and for exactly the reasons that peak oil brings with it. It's a recent understanding in archeology primarily because the failures have been so profound and complete that there is barely any record of the civilizations ever having existed. they become invisible.
investors need to be aware of survivorship bias when choosing mutual funds. to look at the funds available it may appear that their managers do a good job at earning their fees because they often outperform the market. but the problem is, all the failures are gone, disappeared, invisible to the analysis. This puts an unmeasurable positive skew on their aggregate performance. It is very hard, even impossible to get an aggregate performance that accounts for survivorship bias.
exactly the same thing can be said about civilizations. the cornucopians have been right so far, but if they hadn't they would all be dead and there wouldn't be anyone around to be wrong. so it turns out we actually do have something to fear.