[Madpaddy]

Quitter.

[OilsNotWell]

I was fortunate enough to have had some of my questions answered directly by Dr. Bakhtiari back in 2004 when he was a guest expert here on peakoil.com. I recall fondly his wise counsel for us as we approach and hit peak oil. His writing was also quite prescient, and infused with kindness. While he did not shy away from the truth, neither did he encourage us to run from it; he counseled recognition, acceptance, and cooperation in meeting the challenges ahead.

One item in particular I remember was my comment that I believed Saudi Arabia could produce no more than 9.5mb/d...and he stated I was indeed correct in that belief. Saudi Arabia has since not been able to achieve a greater production figure. He went even further to say that production figures of many OPEC and non-OPEC countries like Russia, were fixed. Politically, I was also able to glean a distinct impression that the way things are in Iran, is not exactly the way things have been publicly promulgated by either the U.S. nor Iran, and that the shadow of the old-guard loomed over many things.

The expert assistance and insight he courageously provided, as best he could considering the risks, was extraordinary. May he rest in peace.

Here's a link to his responses and an interview to those that are interested. Re-reading them again was illumintating, as his assessments and predictions have continued to prove themselves.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1759.html (Questions 1,2,3)

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1774.html (Questions 4,5,6)

http://peakoil.com/fortopic1807.html (Questions 7,8,9,10)

http://peakoil.com/fortopic5676.html (Barbara's Interview)

[Barbara]

I met Ali in person, had dinner with him, exchanged some emails. He was a great person.
I'm not that ready to believe the news yet.

[IslandCrow]

In my files (this one taken from Energy Bulletin) I have a quote from Dr Bakhtiari:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition

The four Transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each Transition [will] cover, on average, three to four years.

The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.