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Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic shock

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic shock

Unread postby KevO » Sun 11 Nov 2007, 11:20:40

'Leggett' is such an appropriate name don't you think?
When we were doing naughty things as teenagers and someone was coming, we'd shout 'leg it' meaning run a way!
anyway

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r Jeremy Leggett this week in an Academy Times lecture in Dublin boldly entitled Half Gone: Peak Oil meets Climate Change. A former oil industry consultant and Greenpeace campaigner, he said the combination of the two "is going to hit society with a big, seismic shock . . . I hope I am wrong, but I don't believe we can avoid the third great oil crisis. We will be mobilising as though for war"


full story in today's
Irish Times


.
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Re: Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic sh

Unread postby Bas » Sun 11 Nov 2007, 11:49:49

As we now consume about 1 million barrels more per day then is produced and the whole world is eating into it's stockpiles without demand destruction in sight (gas prices are trailing the oil price, and demand reduction trails the price of gas), I believe this "seismic shock" will hit us sooner than later, possibly around new year's or even before that; you can only eat into your stockpiles so much before we are forced to either actually fully replace what we use or reduce consumption.

Considering this I think it's possible oil will spike to 150-200 dollars within a 3 to 6 month period from now. 8O :shock:
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Re: Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic sh

Unread postby KevO » Sun 11 Nov 2007, 11:54:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '
')Considering this I think it's possible oil will spike to 150-200 dollars within a 3 to 6 month period from now. 8O :shock:


In the crude awakening film
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33799.html
Matt Simmons reckons gas should be $15 (fifteen) a gallon in the US now to be realistic to where we presently are
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Re: Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic sh

Unread postby Bas » Sun 11 Nov 2007, 12:08:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '
')Considering this I think it's possible oil will spike to 150-200 dollars within a 3 to 6 month period from now. 8O :shock:


In the crude awakening film
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33799.html
Matt Simmons reckons gas should be $15 (fifteen) a gallon in the US now to be realistic to where we presently are


Well, Matt Simmons has been off on occasion (like with his prediction that we should have seen shortages this summer); $15 translates to what? $800 a barrel? I doubt we'll see that within 3 years or so; demand destruction at such levels will be enough to kill off maybe ten million of barrels/day worldwide (if you count in 2007 dollars at least).

Edit: $15 for a gallon is more in line with $400 oil? I guess we might see that sooner...

Either way, it is reasonable to expect huge spikes up and down in the price of a barrel as the market searches for a price that fits a declining supply, and I don't think that anybody can exactly say what price that's going to be (but if you can you're going to be a very rich man)
Bas
 

Re: Leggett:"(PO) to hit society with a big, seismic sh

Unread postby kjmclark » Sun 11 Nov 2007, 21:23:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'W')ell, Matt Simmons has been off on occasion (like with his prediction that we should have seen shortages this summer);


Bas, did you miss the whole Dakotas problem this summer? Tom Whipple wrote in his September 3rd Peak Oil Review:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')upply problems in the upper Midwest have already led to spot shortages in North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota.


Looks to me like Matt Simmons is saying that the current market signals are *way* off, indicating that traders are still caught on the cornucopian version hook, line, and sinker.
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