[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')re you trying to mess with my mind? You don't mean the 'number of the beast' do you?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'T')he economies of Europe, China, India and Russia among others still seem to be doing fairly well, in fact most of the world is growing, and robustly in Asia. What seems as an American downturn has maybe more to do with the end of the housing bubble.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')Again, my point is that the economy of the U.S. HAS SHRUNK. The housing issue has hit in the last several months - but the economy (after factoring in inflation) may have been shrinking for longer than that.

Thoughts?

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')gain, my point is that the economy of the U.S. HAS SHRUNK. The housing issue has hit in the last several months - but the economy (after factoring in inflation) may have been shrinking for longer than that.

[TWilliam]

*double post*

[TWilliam]

And this just in from the "don't worry, be happy, everything's FIIIIIINE" department:

Weakening art sales rattle Sotheby's, Christie's

Guess that fuel bill for the Lear's cuttin' into the jet-setters' decorating budgets a bit...

[Blacksmith]

Your ecomomy starts shrinking, when you start running a tab.

[yull]

It does seem obvious the world economy is not doing as good as is accepted, and oil prices are really biting, but these days remember that people have credit cards. They can keep absorbing the costs even when it is out of their means, which is unlike what it was in the oil shocks of the past. Back then, people actually had to pay what they could afford - if the price went up, they had to cut down elsewhere. These days the price could go through the roof and they could stick it on their credit cards and forget about it. Obviously, when the economy falters, they won't be able to pay it back off, so the banking system could be in a right mess when they figure it out, just like the sub-prime mess. We are living on borrowed time, and the crash will be faster as a result. We are desperate doing everything we can to keep the party going on as long as possible, ignoring the building strain. It may take a few years, but I feel the system will break when all the unsustainability and madness of this debt, loans, mortgages, sup-prime, artificial money economy becomes apparent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'e')conomies are a bit less dependent on energy
consumption

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'O')ne of our theories is that peak oil will lead to a shrinking economy. Oil appears to have peaked. Has the economy?

If we look at U.S. GDP, it appears to be increasing - for example, during the third quarter it was up some small percentage.

I suppose that increase has factored in the GDP deflater (i.e., real GDP is published). You can see some values at: LINK

However....what if true inflation is higher than the deflater? If that's true, then the economy is shrinking - adding further corroboration to the theory and timing of peak oil.

Thoughts?

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
I think inflation is in the 15-20% range - add to that the dollar has lost 5% of its buying power in the last 7 years. So we need to make at least 25% more each year just to stay above water.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
I think inflation is in the 15-20% range - add to that the dollar has lost 5% of its buying power in the last 7 years. So we need to make at least 25% more each year just to stay above water.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'O')ne of our theories is that peak oil will lead to a shrinking economy. Oil appears to have peaked. Has the economy?

If we look at U.S. GDP, it appears to be increasing - for example, during the third quarter it was up some small percentage.

I suppose that increase has factored in the GDP deflater (i.e., real GDP is published). You can see some values at: LINK

However....what if true inflation is higher than the deflater? If that's true, then the economy is shrinking - adding further corroboration to the theory and timing of peak oil.

Thoughts?

[seahorse2]

The question posed by this forum is this: is a shrinking US economy being hidden by inflation statistics which show GDP rising faster than inflation? I think Jack is right. First, most people I've read say the gov't inflation statistics are b.s. Even a lay person like myself can appreciate the fact that I have to buy energy and food, neither of which are considered by the gov't when coming up with its inflation number.

However, that aside, back in 2004, under depletion modelling, Pup did a model which predicted "Peak Wal-Mart" in 2006. He was attempting to predict a peak in peak oil by predicting peak sales for an entity dependent on cheap oil.

Peak-Mart

As I understand it, Pups analysis still stands, and that as defined in his model, Wal-Mart sales did peak in 2006, which just happens to coincide with many PO prediction dates. Further, Wal-Mart has struggled this year, as are all retailers this year, so yes, I think the economy is shrinking, even if you don't include the implosion of the home market, implosions at GM, Ford, and some of these banks (peak credit, recent reports that airlines may have to ground some planes if oil prices stay high)