by thuja » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 14:01:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billyk', 'y')ep- I probably am to blame! It's still aggravating that it is the most volitile commodity in the pits. You don't see these kinds of fluctuations with corn(although it has been higher of late), or hogs,cattle ect. I'm getting a different vehicle at the end of the year-trying to eliminate some blame! It is supposed to get 40 miles per gallon. Put a Tornado fuel saver on & who knows?? I did see a report by a BP oil analyst that said oil will be in the low 70's come next year. A few large fields will begin producing. Marathon oil is adding a large expansion onto a refinery( a whole nother post!). Yes- I'm an optimist and a small business owner. What else do we got?? billyk
Well its good to have optimism... I'm trying to keep some of mine but its hard sometimes in these times...
The main reason oil is not likely to come down significantly for any period of time is because we have reached a threshold where the world can no longer pump out any additional oil- thus Peak Oil. We very soon are likely to see a decrease in available oil by around 4 % a year...forever...scary indeed!
Just to give you an understanding of how tough that it is...in the 70's temporary embargo by Saudia Arabia- they took 5 % of oil off the markets and plunged the world in to a deep recession, caused massive inflation and eventually led to very hight interest rates. That was a temporary small cut in oil. This is a geological constraint that can't be mended and is perpetual and ever worsening. By 2030 we will be lucky to produce half the oil we are producing today.
So no- I am not trying to dampen your optimism...just to keep you up to date with what this Peak Oil community knows- that we are all to blame for being profligate with consuming so much oil so quickly without looking to alternatives a long time ago...