[Etalon]

bollocks, looks like I might be fucked then

[shortonoil]

Armageddon said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's next, back down to the 80's, or up into the 100's ?

[FireJack]

So who's going to claim the $100 oil post?

[DantesPeak]

Bloomberg blames PEMEX for the last $1 or so price rise:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $95.80 a barrel in New York after a U.S. inventories unexpectedly fell to a two-year low.

U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 3.89 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels last week, the lowest since October 2005, according to the Department of Energy. A 400,000-barrel gain was expected in a Bloomberg News survey. Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, resumed some oil exports and revealed that a storm caused more output to be halted than had been assumed.

``The shock of the data is understandable when you consider the news from Pemex that they shut in something like 1 million barrels a day, not 600,000,'' said Chris Mennis, owner of oil broker New Wave Energy LLC in Aptos, California. ``Most of that would have been going to the U.S.''

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '$')95 oil will contribute $580 billion to our $780 billion current account deficit. This is more than $200 billion more than last year.

[dukey]

crude stocks are still high

[pup55]

Going back to 1986, the record one-day increase for WTI spot price was $4.94. Only 16 time or so has there been a gain of more than $3 in one day.

A lot of the previous instances have been war or hurricane related:


8/6/90 28.73 4.94
3/28/05 54.06 4.36
9/19/05 67.21 4.3
4/26/06 71.71 4.28
3/25/03 33.42 3.91
10/25/07 92.09 3.79
10/25/90 34.35 3.55
2/24/06 61.46 3.43
1/22/91 24.91 3.28
3/22/07 60.21 3.23
10/11/05 63.84 3.13
11/7/90 35.48 3.07
11/27/06 60.3 3.02
1/30/07 57.03 3.02

For the WTI front futures contract, here is the all-time highest:
9/19/05 4.39
1/23/07 3.91
8/6/90 3.56
1/14/91 3.49
10/3/90 3.37
10/25/07 3.36
4/21/06 3.22
10/25/90 3.17
11/20/06 2.99
1/30/07 2.96
1/22/91 2.88
3/21/07 2.88
9/24/90 2.82
8/22/90 2.81
10/12/00 2.81
2/22/05 2.8
1/7/91 2.75
11/7/90 2.68
6/1/05 2.63


So, in absolute dollar terms, today at $4.15 was probably the second highest all-time since futures have been traded.

In percentage terms, not too close. It was fairly common in the 1998 time frame with prices around $15 for there to be 10% plus daily moves: A lot of the Desert Storm dates are in this group.

3/23/98 13.26468807
8/4/86 13.09255079
8/6/90 12.6916221
1/22/91 11.91066998
6/22/98 11.83916605
8/5/86 11.51797603
1/14/91 11.33853151
4/7/86 11.09560363
2/24/86 10.45665122
1/7/91 9.945750452
6/21/90 9.681227863
1/21/91 9.624413146
10/25/90 9.255474453
10/3/90 9.030010718
8/22/90 9.000640615

The 10-17-73 price increase was 17%, according to wikipedia.

on 12-22-73 OPEC raised the crude oil price from $5.12 to $11.65, also according to wikipedia. This was in the pre-futures days as well.

So, a $4 plus move is, indeed quite unusual.

[Armageddon]

what does this mean ?

The draw was led by a huge tumble in stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the NYMEX oil contract as companies drained storage tanks.

"Given the economics of what it takes to store oil, it makes no sense to hold on to inventory right now," said Stephen Schork, president of The Schork Report. "Storage owners are taking the economically prudent step and dumping inventories."

I also read Rappier at TOD that they are doing this on purpose.

[Revi]

Crude is going for over $95 a barrel for Nymex now. The wholesale price for heating oil is over $2.54! That means everyone will pay more than $3 a gallon this winter. Ouch!

It all jumped on lower than expected inventories:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071031/ap_ ... _prices_71

Second week in a row for the bad news. When it rains it pours. Joe Sixpack isn't going to like this. We are pretty small oil consumers, and even I don't like it.

Bush cut LIHEAP funds, and heating oil costs 50 cents more than last year. This is going to be the winter of our discontent.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'w')hat does this mean ?

The draw was led by a huge tumble in stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the NYMEX oil contract as companies drained storage tanks.

"Given the economics of what it takes to store oil, it makes no sense to hold on to inventory right now," said Stephen Schork, president of The Schork Report. "Storage owners are taking the economically prudent step and dumping inventories."

I also read Rappier at TOD that they are doing this on purpose.

[Bas]

we just hit $ 96.12 Linky

[Leanan]

Holy crap. Am I going to wake up tomorrow and find $100 oil happened while I was asleep?

[emersonbiggins]

IF there is an upside to $100 oil, it will be that we will no longer have to endure the "oil still lower than the inflation-adjusted high of $(CURRENT+10%) in 1981" tripe pushed by the MSM. Am I right?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'H')oly crap. Am I going to wake up tomorrow and find $100 oil happened while I was asleep?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')F there is an upside to $100 oil, it will be that we will no longer have to endure the "oil still lower than the inflation-adjusted high of $(CURRENT+10%) in 1981" tripe pushed by the MSM. Am I right?

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')F there is an upside to $100 oil, it will be that we will no longer have to endure the "oil still lower than the inflation-adjusted high of $(CURRENT+10%) in 1981" tripe pushed by the MSM. Am I right?

[Leanan]

I can picture it now...

Oct. 31, 2010...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK: US oil touch a record high of $395 in after hours trading, close to the inflation-adjusted high of $420 set in 1980...

[Starvid]

When we pass $101 they'll remind us the inflation adjusted high is still back in the early 1860's.