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why does everyone think peak oil = end of the world?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby inculcated » Tue 30 Oct 2007, 23:22:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 's')olar? wind? tidal? biofuels? nuclear? hydro dams?


All of those are predicated upon finite resources. You can not build the mechanisms for capture/production and transmission without using finite elements and their commensurate compounds. Long before the continents collide once again, you will have ransacked the planet and run out of their required inputs. None of those means are sustainable. None.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby Denny » Tue 30 Oct 2007, 23:39:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('inculcated', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 's')olar? wind? tidal? biofuels? nuclear? hydro dams?


All of those are predicated upon finite resources. You can not build the mechanisms for capture/production and transmission without using finite elements and their commensurate compounds. Long before the continents collide once again, you will have ransacked the planet and run out of their required inputs. None of those means are sustainable. None.


Well there are two more optimistic ways to look at thius issue.

1 - If we reduced our use of metals in cars, airports, and super size malls, maybe we could have enogh to provide for renewable energy. Especially cars. I suspect that one car has more than enough metals, steel especially, to make one hell of a windmill. And, your average American home now likely has a couple of cars, whcih degrade ina few years. I bet a windmill could last a few car life spans. My Maytag washer sure has. (Bought new in 1980.)

2 - There are new materials coming such as carbon fibre reinforced po;lymers, which will reduce the metal demand.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby inculcated » Wed 31 Oct 2007, 01:30:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I') suspect that one car has more than enough metals, steel especially, to make one hell of a windmill.


It seems unlikely that even one SUV would recycle into one of these:

Image

Further, how many 6MW machines are going to be required to even make a dent in the 400+ Quads used per annum? Then there is the consideration of the lifespan of one of these behemoths requiring replacement at least every 25 years or so…
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby worrier » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 01:07:58

I'm basing my guesses on the future not on what could be done, but on what is currently being done. E.g. we've already got an oil war, a lot of the much promoted carbon reduction schemes look like little more than smoke and mirrors, and not much in the way of conservation efforts. I haven't seen any significant efforts for societies to really change fuel use/carbon release. I don't think Kyoto is producing any meaningful changes.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby Opies » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 05:00:20

nobody gets it.
peak oil isn't the problem. peak oil is just a symptom of a much much bigger problem.... take a step back once in a while.... a REAL step back, and you might see.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 10:44:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Opies', 'n')obody gets it.
peak oil isn't the problem. peak oil is just a symptom of a much much bigger problem.


Then perhaps you should tell us what the real problem is, so we can go hang out at that website instead of this one?
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 14:53:12

accidental double post, sorry.
Last edited by kadoomsoon on Thu 01 Nov 2007, 18:34:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 15:00:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'w')hy does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?


AHem. I'll take this one.
Because it is the end of the whole complete total world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'i')ts not.


Yes it is.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', ' ')there are a lot of things that people can do reduce there fuel usage which in turn will reduce demand and extend supply for much longer. in some countries car transport takes up 40% of all oil used in that country think of the savings if everyone reduced this.


ok instead of 22 million barrels a DAY we will only then run 14 million barrels a day.
(In america alone)

Where you going to get 14 million barrels a day?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'D')o people really think the govt will simply allow people to drive cars carrying only one passenger to and from work.


Yes, definitely.
IF they don't they get fired and new politicians get elected that will allow it, they are afraid to even make the 55 MPH speed limit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'J')ust cutting out most of these trips will safe a huge amount of oil. all it takes is the local or state govt to hire buses from local bus companies and run a network of buses it would only take a month to get it off the ground.
You have just increase the price of all goods 50% and caused a shortage in all stores.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 't')he buses could even be free just to encourage people to stop driving due to huge savings.

Cut off shopping habits for daily consumption of cheap chinese junk at awally land, the economy crashes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'A')nother way is for larger companies to run a number of buses to pick up workers each day and return them to home. same for schools and govt offices.

So they will change their work hours from 11 to 3? and half the workforces stop showing up? late people miss busses.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'a')lot of people say unemployment will get out of control it may do at the start but the type and location of employment will change. just think of the bus drivers need to drive the buses why not train and employ these newly unemployed to do it. small shops can and do function just as well with people coming by bus instead of car.

Nothing is made in merca anymore, it is all made in china. the work force for production is 1-5 %

which will save from 22 million barrels a day to 21 million barrels a day if they were all KILLED. so no big change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'I')n my city where huge numbers travel by bus people tend to eat out more and buy small items at shops near bus stops. this is actually likely to increase as more people take buses and wait at stops. just look at any major bus terminal outside of North America there are 100's of small shops and they do well.

Eating 0out is supporting unsustainable behaviour, more fuel more production more shipping of FOODwhich is the main reason most people will die in the first year after collapse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'A')ir travel can still be successful in the medium term if they cut out most of the short distance flights eg under 2 hours across land. trains and intercity buses can take this market if people and business are willing to take a bit longer for travel. if your country can do it build the 350kph HST trains now if not make do with normal 100kph overnight trains.

The trains won't have diesel to run.
Not enough electric to convert the mobile mercan force.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'T')rain travel can be fun and even in Europe there is an overnight train focused on business travellers called "the train hotel"

We don't have the money to convert to trains and it won't happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'T')o me Peak oil is an opportunity for the world and the economy to shift to a new way of living all be it slower and a little more prices due to increased inflation. All that's needed to make a smoother transition is for people. communities and governments to work together and make the changes do the simple and quick ones 1st like create a bus system out of the buses that already exist in your city think school buses, older buses etc.

To me, post peak oil collapse is the year when people like you will starve to death. And you will realize it when it is too late. (It is already too late)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'E')ven if the USA nation govt will not help why cant local people, communities and state govt take a lead and make the transitions. when they see most states doing something they will see its time to change there view or lose the next election.

Because local politicians are not working to help you. They are working to keep their jobs and to make as much money for their selves and their nepotistic workers as possible before the cash runs out.

You think politicians want to help you? Where ever did you get that idea?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'S')o what's really needed if for people on here to make the issue known in there area and with the people who matter in your city and get them to start the transition.

Won't happen. The issue is known and everyone who mentions it and starts to spread the word is shot down immedoiately by Oreilly or shrub or cliton.

And finally

so everyone knows?

There is nothing you can do about it.

crunch the nmumbers.

to make enough ethanol you have to produce enough corn mash DAILY to continuosuly run horseshoe falls.

and you have to heat that waterfall daily to boiling as it runs over the edge,

and you have to build a continuous distiller cabable of handling that flow rate.

Wont tnever ever happen ever never no way.

Also, do you know how many TANKERS it would take to carry that Ethanol? and ten times as many to carry the corn mash? How many tankers dumping continuously into a river to make horseshoe falls run? What will they run on, oil gas diesel or the ethanol you just made?

and to haul the corn how many dump trucks running on ethanol?

You would burn up all the product just making it.

it kaint happen, opey.

Look, oil will decrease, the por will die, and soon the wars will start over fuel, and some stupid indiago will push the nuclear button.

finis.

how you gonna stop that?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gwmss15', 'w')hat's not needed is the doomerism that i always read on here some can be done even if it small.

Actually what is not needed is the false hope, tonse of money wasting, behaviour that will never solve anything at all, and will PREVENT people from selling their chinese plastic junk garbage and moving to a save zone where they stand a slim chance of surviving for a few years.

All who move into cities to save gas are going to die instantly.

I know there are s pushers of the new world order, and that order HAS ALREADY DECIDED to set up the last war because the systems are being converted to doomsday scenarios as we speak, that means, a system that respond without human intervention once a button is pushed, so that it will run to completion NO MATTER WHAT tries to stop it.

merca has it set up, if the Gov is taken out and that plan is started, computers take the most destructive course that is left...
and ruskia just announced they are going to convert their nuke system to a doomsday scenario this year. Why? Because we have it and they feel uncomfortable about being taken out in a surprise attack...
its in the news, they admitted it.

once it gets pushed, it is over, sigh O nara baby. Almost no one wants it, yet they are setting it up. Don't you think the lunatics in charge, when they decide it is time, will be able to start it going?

This has been discussed already, it is nothing I made up, I read this and it has been discussed for years, we just all forgot about it.

(To remove populations most effectively, they would push a energy saving scenario to croud everyone into tight areas of population, more efficient removal that way. Yes, move into cities close to work...

Rationing?>
Car pooling?

Use a calculater andcheck the numbers, rationaing wont make a lick of difference. not so much as a few months of difference in peak time. The minute we cut our use from 22 million barrels a day to 18 million barrels a day, china and india will buy the 4 million barrels a day immediately and burn them

Rationing willl never slow our consumption.

not a bit.

Rationing will however make us even less competitive and incrase all prices, hastening economic collapse in this alternate universe also. Whatever we do will hasten our collapse.

This is kadoom corrolary #1
If you spend money trying to prevent a collapse, it will just escalate the collapse rate.

Putting us out of further competition, because our prices of goods will rise even more.

You can't fix it son, you can't even slow the train down.

Screaming out the windows of the train heading to the broken bridge won't help, it just adds to the comlplete picture, makes it more interesting and eventful.

Convincing politicians to spend tons of money getting ready will make it all worse.

The only good you can do is cut back your wasteful habits and get to a position where you can survive once your car stops running permanently. Or you can just die when the time comes, no worries, no muss no fuss.. Conserving won't change any of it either way.
Last edited by kadoomsoon on Thu 01 Nov 2007, 18:55:01, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby timbo » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 17:05:53

No government or major corporation has proposed giving up the perpetual growth model and so as the Albert Bartlett quote goes "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

Question: Given a jar of bacteria that replicate evey second and the statement the jar will be full at midday. When was the jar half full.
Answer: 11:59:59

In terms of oil, arable land and fresh water we are well into the final second.

Or as I said in another thread.

The fecal matter has impacted the air movement device.

Poo has occured.

Some of the cornucopian dreams may even have been feasible if we'd done something serious about Peak Oil 10 years ago. We didn't and so now on to the consequences. Which will vary from unpleasant to utterly catastrophic depending on how many resource wars we fight and which weapons we elect to use in them.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby timbo » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 17:17:29

And given humanity en masse's avarice and stupidity I'm assuming the entire arsenal. Nukes, bio, chemical, bombs, bullets, arrows, spears, clubs and finally bare fists.

The evolution of the intelligent cockroach has begun.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby Opies » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 20:47:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')Let me guess. Too many people on planet earth? I would agree with that assessment.

Na, the problem began long, long before that. I already stated the problem in the "the world will be a better place when..." thread.
Humans seem to believe the world belongs to us, and that we should pillage and rape it of its resources; we believe that we should destroy its constructs and rebuild the world for our own uses. We have proven time and time again, that we think ourselves superior to every creature on the earth, stomping on them at every turn, and giving no respect to anything that does not serve our own purposes. This is reason we face the problem we do today. We have finally reached the point where the world won't have us stomping on it anymore. We have finally reached the point where the damage we have done to "our" "planet is finally catching up to us. We have broken every rule nature has, and the consequences are finally arriving.
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Re: why does everyone think peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 01 Nov 2007, 22:23:17

Kadoomsoon, I loved your dark rant. I was chuckling at it. I am afraid that I agree completely. The bozos who are driving this bus aren't going to stop doing stupid things because we don't like them. They are going to run it until the fuel runs out or we go off a cliff.

The only answer is to try to get yourself into a place that might do okay after things really go awry. I agree that all those in major cities are toast. I used to live in NYC. Not a great place to be when TSHTF. Neither is any place else, but at least you might have a chance.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby inculcated » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 13:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'T')hen perhaps you should tell us what the real problem is, so we can go hang out at that website instead of this one?


Overblown sense of entitlement, proclivity for rapaciousness and a healthy disrespect for reflection are the real problems. PO is but the most recent symptom of the malady that is humankind.
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Re: why does everyone thing peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 02 Nov 2007, 15:10:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('inculcated', 'O')verblown sense of entitlement, proclivity for rapaciousness and a healthy disrespect for reflection are the real problems. PO is but the most recent symptom of the malady that is humankind.


Right there is a problem, this idea that the crises we're facing are a result of human nature, rather than a result of the way we live. If our problems are human nature, then they are an intractable problem we can't solve. But if they are a feature of the way we live, and the ideas that form the basis of how we live, then they can be changed.


Humans managed to live more or less sustainably on the planet for 100,000 to 1 million years, depending on how you like to count. The problems of our culture only started some 10,000 years ago. Cultures can change, because behaviors and ideas can change.


Just getting past this idea that we're screwed because of human nature would be a useful and helpful change of mind.


For more ideas about the problem of our culture, see:

http://www.ishmael.com/welcome.cfm

http://www.ishthink.org/
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Re: why does everyone think peak oil = end of the world?

Unread postby aliendroid » Sat 03 Nov 2007, 03:08:17

Ladies and gentlemen I do agree that we are about at peak oil right now. Oil prices will keep going up over the next 20 years etc, but I think we as humans will find a way around it. First off, oil will not run out for another few hundred years, we just won’t have enough of it to drive hummers to our mailboxes down the street.
First off, wind energy is a fantastic solution to oil dependence. Not because you can turn wind into oil, but because as we build electric vehicles and increase demand on electricity, wind will be able to cover that increase in demand and some of our current power use.
Wind power is no joke, and while the progressive states are considering wind power projects, Texas is showing them how it is done. Texas became the nation’s leader in wind power in 2006 and in one short year texas put a 1000MW lead on California and Texas plans to bring that up to 25,000 MW as soon as possible. Texas consumes about 20,000MW to 65,000 MW of electricity depending on time of day and season. So at 25,000 MW we are talking about something rather significant. But Coal isn’t going to run out or peak anytime soon. Coal will most likely stop being used due to lack of popularity in the future. Texas also has the capacity to generate more than three times its current use of electricity in wind power.
As we max out wind power, I fully believe that large scale solar will become easier to achieve.
Peak oil is going to destroy our society and we are all going to die? That’s stupid.
I’m sure we will see large taxes on personal gas consumption and subsidies on freight and farm equipment before we will see famine. We are dumb but we aren’t that dumb.
Peak oil puts our freedom to use oil products as private citizens at much more of a risk then having empty bellies. SUV drivers will be riding their bike 15 miles to work long before we all go hungry. We will have a few disasters and the media will probably cause some panic making people rush to grocery stores and buy everything. So preparing is a very good idea.
We don’t have enough metals to build renewable energy???????? Well let’s just deconstruct the 1000s of wind mills in the USA and Europe because we didn’t have enough metals to build them, but wait, we have hundreds of thousands of generators around the world already burning coal and using steam (from nuc power) so I guess we didn’t have enough metals to have built those either. The truth is we have a large amount of certain metals, such as Al and iron, but we don’t really need a billion tons of metals to build enough wind mills to produce enough electricity for our electric farm equipment, electric cars, trains and electric heating systems that we will absolutely have to switch to in the future. What we need to worry about are the batteries. GM thinks they’ll have batteries with 120,000 mile life expectancy for their Plug In Hybrid called the volt coming out in 2010 and tesla motors startup in california has already developed an all electric car that is faster than a Ferrari and can go 250 miles on much less energy than a hybrid Honda civic would require to go 250 miles.
When a wind mill has aged a while and stops functioning after 25 years, IT IS REPAIRED!!!
Yes, we have been living like idiots. If America had intelligent civil development without sprawl and efficient cars, we could even be exporting oil right now and we’d be rich as hell, but we didn’t plan right.
So the technology exists, but I agree that the will does not. As soon as we get a good crunch like $90+ per barrel of oil, no wait we already got that, so we should see some exponential growth in electric vehicles and green energy development. LEED certified buildings projects are all over the place. The most conservative, red and oily state is leading the nation in renewable energy and leading the nation in legislature for renewable energy. An oil tycoon named Boone is planning the world’s largest wind farm in Texas at 4000 MW, but Texas already has the largest wind plant in the world at about 750 MW. What else do we need to see before we realize that that guy on waterboy was right. You can do it!
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