[Pops]

I think you've mentioned this drill before. In fact I think I'll pop-a-top right now!

[MattSavinar]

Pops:

I don't think I have - it involves holding these two points on your head in a certain fashion that traps the bloodflow in the "calm" part of the brain.

It comes from Donna Eden's book, "Energy Medicine" - which I highly recommend. Lots of practical stuff that you can use the day you read the book.

Matt

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheSupplyGuy', 'P')eople obviously don't realize the implications of 3%. Yes, in math 3% is small, unless you're dealing with a very large number. Keep the following in mind:
In addition to a 3% supply drop there will be a 2% demand increase.
The oil crisis of 79' was caused by a temporary 5% drop.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pip', 'O')n a related note, what type of companies would you sell short? What kind of companies/industries are going to most affected by high fuel prices.

[MattSavinar]

A couple points:

Transporation accounts for about 2/3 of oil supply - but that includes all transportation.

Personal cars is about 40 percent.

Furthermore, it would take a few years for the average car to go from 20 to 40 mpg. And during each of those years, we would be consuming more and more oil.

The problem with all this is that even if we reduced our oil consumption to 1/3 of it's current level, we would only put the rollover off by 30-35 years.

I can explain that more if need be.

Matt

[Robert Espy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'A') couple points:

The problem with all this is that even if we reduced our oil consumption to 1/3 of it's current level, we would only put the rollover off by 30-35 years.

I can explain that more if need be.

Matt

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')
The problem with all this is that even if we reduced our oil consumption to 1/3 of it's current level, we would only put the rollover off by 30-35 years.

I can explain that more if need be.

Matt

[Pops]

I agree; we could save considerably through conservation. But not all these simple solutions are that simple.

I wonder how much pressure even a 10% added load on the grid would cause from people plugging in at night? Where does that power come from? Do we simply accept more pollution from coal burning plants or make massive investments in nat gas facilities? Actually, I believe N America is about to peak in gas too. Or do we build a few hundred nukes and rebuild the grid in the next 10 years?

And while “everyone replaces their car each 5 years” may be true, I haven’t bought a NEW car in 20 years. Besides, when you are laid off from your airline job how are you going to afford a new car?

I still can’t figure out why it is so hard to understand that just because something is competitive with oil at $150bbl, it still ain’t cheap!

[Aaron]

Let's hope that recession does not prolong peak...



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the Base Case, save that price rises, when the swing share exceeds 30%, curb further demand increases, leading to a production plateau that lasts, not until the world midpoint, but until the swing producers reach their midpoint.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I wonder how much pressure even a 10% added load on the grid would cause from people plugging in at night? Where does that power come from?

[Martin]

I'm beginning to see the argument for the more 'pessimistic' assessment of peak oil
Of course by 'pessimistic' I mean dramatic!
I'm realising how big a change this is gonna be!!!

After some research I don't think hemp can create enough oil to sustain our current economic systems or way of life
But I still think hemp could help prevent the die off scenario

It can provide us with a useful amount of oil, 1-2 barrels per acre per year
A country the size of America could probably get the equivilant of a few
million barrels a day this way (about 5-15% of the current amount)

This rules out private vehicle usage as we know it
Public transport, horses, bicycles would take over, perhaps microcars with tiny engines
Emergency services and transport would be allocated most of the oil
I don't see a shift to electric vehicles because of the gas peak

Manufacturing would have to use plant based materials which is entirely possible
We could make food, plastic, paper, clothing from hemp using non-oil based fertiliser and take advantage of hemp's natural resistance to weeds and pests
Hemp is an ideal crop the average person could grow in their garden, I calculated in my 1000 sq foot / 100 sq metre garden I could harvest around 100kg of fibre and 10kg of seed a year

As for our economy global transport of goods would dramatically reduce
Right now I'm eating noodles I bought for 0.1 UK pounds that was shipped from Malaysia!
That profit was only possible because of cheap oil

This reminds me of the craziness of the USSR economic system
Women would grow a few bags of tomatoes in the south, buy a 1000 mile return plane flight to Moscow, sell them and still make a profit! The plane tickets were artificially subsidised by the system, just like oil artificially subsidises us

Local communities and nations will have to become self sufficient for much of their products and the consumer/growth economy will end. Instead we will have a more planned society

Things are going to be a lot more rocky than I thought
Thats not to say I am pessimistic, we will have a decade or two to adapt as oil production will drop in a curve, there will be a 'grace' period where basic conservation will buy us some time to prepare for the transition to a non oil based world
In fact conservation could be the driver for change here, just as profit is the driver for capitalism

Chaos and a die off is a possiblity but I don't believe in it
The alternative is a new society that will be completely different from the western oil driven consumer society we live in today. The question is, can we make that transisition?

Its might seem hard to imagine but we have already had a glimpse of this in our recent past!
The '67 summer of love was a rare moment of vision, Hunter S Thompson called it the high water mark for humanity

The film easy rider presented the two choices we had before us, whilst being aware which path we were going to choose! Thats why captain america said 'we blew it'
The makers of the film knew the peace and love era would end, they were'nt naive hippies but were from the older and wiser beatnik generation

The film ends with us seeing the road gradually recede and we see more and more of the horizon. Eventually we see a majestic river running next to the road. We still have those two choices before us

Martin

[Cool Hand Linc]

Are you thinking we need to go down the road of free love commune style?

[Guest]

>Are you thinking we need to go down the road of free love commune style

Sort of, the hippy commune idea was a reaction against a system that wouldn't change - but peak oil will force the system to change and the 60's ideals of sharing and sustainable living will be back in fashion

If you analyse the hippy phenonenon although it appeared to last only a few years it established an underground counter culture

There's a lot of people out there who still hold to those ideals, but feel overwhelmed by the power of the money system. When it starts to crumble there will be no reason to hold back anymore

Martin

[The_Virginian]

Martin,

Even in "evil" people

Desire for money comes from greed, greed comes from jelousy, jelousy comes from precieved needs, precieved needs come form actual needs.

Actual needs do actualy need to be provided for.

In the "better" people, precieved needs and actual needs are more balanced. But very few humans are able to obtain this balance between the two "needs" (precieved and actual).

Thus even in a "hippe" or other "fake love" society, there will be manipulators who will amass wealth.

It's simple human nature.

Why do I say "fake love"?

If you love EVERYBODY, you love NOBODY. Otherwise, there is no distincion in favor or actions to any single individual other than ONESELF. By it's very definition there must be levels of affection. These leves will vary based on affiliation to ones group, family, Sex attraction, etc.

Thus there can not be, nor will their ever be a cult, group, club, commune etc. that acts only on love.

Hippie'ism is a MYTH.

OTOH I am glad we can agree on the role of Industrial hemp in a post peak world.

oh, And I love you man!

[mainster]

We have to abandon or growth culture/economic system/doctrine anyways. Peak Oil is an upper boundary that we are fortunate to hit, otherwise the "long term" consequences would be much more dire than the Oil decline scenario (even more pollution, species kill-off, climate changes etc.) The die-off is inevitable one way or the other, since our global ecological footprint is currently 6xEarth.

Looking at history as a guide it becomes clear that the elite of the superpowers are determined to "dispose" of the expendable consumers while retaining enough to enslave to provide them with a comfortable lifestyle.
Looking again at history it becomes obvious that all weapons developed will at some time be used on a large scale....
When you really think about it, the most expendable consumers for the elite are people like you and I. The most efficient way to kill us off, would be to use disinformation (the way 99% of wars in history have been started) to start great wars to kill us off (US, Europe, Russia, China etc.) and employ biological warfare, conventional missiles, cluster bombs etc. on a massive scale. Elite just has to ensure that they are safe and have the antidotes for the bioweapons.

Having just read 1984, I can clearly see, that we will reach that same situation of "perpetual war for perpetual peace" (war is peace).
The elite MUST regain control of ALL the media channels to pull it off.
Goodbye Internet!
What better tool than the "war on terror", which in newspeak translates to "war on freedom" or "war OF terror".
Terrorise the people to give up their freedom, send them to endless wars to kill them off and turn them into mindless patriotic, paranoid, delusional sheep. Hitler did it, Bush did it, plenty of leaders throughout history did it.
In fact, when you think about it, who didn't follow this script?
The oldest trick in the book! Fake terror, the way to dictatorship and complete control.
How easy it is for the few to control the many...

See below to understand why sustainable growth is yet another myth!

---

http://www.dieoff.org/page37.htm

By respecting impossibility theorems we avoid wasting resources on projects that are bound to fail. Therefore economists should be very interested in impossibility theorems, especially the one to be demonstrated here, namely that it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation. In other words, sustainable growth is impossible.

In its physical dimensions the economy is an open subsystem of the earth ecosystem, which is finite, nongrowing, and materially closed. As the economic subsystem grows it incorporates an ever greater proportion of the total ecosystem into itself and must reach a limit at 100 percent, if not before. Therefore its growth is not sustainable. The term "sustainable growth" when applied to the economy is a bad oxymoron—self-contradictory as prose, and unevocative as poetry.

Challenging the Economic Oxymoron

Politically it is very difficult to admit that growth, with its almost religious connotations of ultimate goodness, must be limited. But it is precisely the nonsustainability of growth that gives urgency to the concept of sustainable development. The earth will not tolerate the doubling of even one grain of wheat 64 times, yet in the past two centuries we have developed a culture dependent on exponential growth for its economic stability (Hubbert, 1976). Sustainable development is a cultural adaptation made by society as it becomes aware of the emerging necessity of nongrowth. Even "green growth" is not sustainable. There is a limit to the population of trees the earth can support, just as there is a limit to the populations of humans and of automobiles. To delude ourselves into believing that growth is still possible and desirable if only we label it "sustainable" or color it "green" will just delay the inevitable transition and make it more painful.

[The_Virginian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ooking at history as a guide it becomes clear that the elite of the superpowers are determined to "dispose" of the expendable consumers while retaining enough to enslave to provide them with a comfortable lifestyle.

[nigel]

Therapy is cheaper than one thinks......

Virginian - this is not up to the standard I expect from you. Ignore the nutters and believe in the rationality that oozes from you. Go with the flow not the horse.....

[The_Virginian]

Nig' baby. What turned you to the "dark side"?

Got tired of fussing with "colonials"?

Became intrested in having a little fun?

I'm glad you are having a sort of "therapy" sesion.

They say "Don't feed the trolls" But they say that at the zoo, and I feed the animals anyway....

Here have a P-nut.

[Guest]

mainster, I agree with your economic conclusions but the time the elite controlled us is nearly over

We are better connected and educated than ever before and I sense in the people around me a knowingness that what we are doing now is wrong

Do you honestly think we would allow them to start a crazy war
Iraq and vietnam were heavily protested and they had some justification
A war over resource would destroy their fragile grip on power, we are too well educated to die because we can't share - like children

You're thinking the way they want you to think, we are the ones with the power!
There is no 'god' or king telling us what to do anymore, things are a lot different now

virginian - where do I begin!

>Desire for money comes from greed, greed comes from jelousy, jelousy >comes from precieved needs, precieved needs come form actual needs.
>Actual needs do actualy need to be provided for.
>In the "better" people, precieved needs and actual needs are more >balanced. But very few humans are able to obtain this balance between >the two "needs" (precieved and actual).

We only need a few people to 'get it'
The soviet union and more recently georgia fell when only a few percent of the people took to the streets
We don't need numbers to be powerful, but we must be clever enough not to desire the power we have
It will be a test for us I admit but I recon we can win

>>Thus even in a "hippe" or other "fake love" society, there will be >manipulators who will amass wealth.
>It's simple human nature.

Most hippies and alternative freaks acknowledge that spiritual treasure is more important than material treasure
Anyone who went for the gold would be seen as poor

Human behaviour can be base, it can be beautiful
Why assume the worst?
Peak oil isn't a food riot yet, its a problem of greed and sharing

>>Why do I say "fake love"?
>If you love EVERYBODY, you love NOBODY
No, if you love, then you love
You can't love everyone personally but you can hold a love for them in your heart in case you do meet
Even if a few people only pretend to love, isn't this better than not trying to love at all?

>Otherwise, there is no distincion in favor or actions to any single >individual other than ONESELF
I can under you not loving someone because their actions hurt you
But you are condemning everyone you don't know to be unloved

>By it's very definition there must be levels of affection. These leves will vary based on affiliation to ones group, family, Sex attraction, etc.
Sure there are levels
You develop a love of personality for those you know, I agree
But by 'group' you mean tribe, culture and nation
You don't know 99% of your own tribe, why favour them over others?
Its only an outer appearance, its not real because underneath we are the same

We have been tribal beings but if we are any more evolved than animals we will seek to love all people equally

>>Thus there can not be, nor will their ever be a cult, group, club, commune etc. that acts only on love.
>Hippie'ism is a MYTH.

I agree a perfect fully loving society is unlikely
But that doesn't mean we can't move forward into a less greedy post-consumer age where love is more activley realised

>OTOH I am glad we can agree on the role of Industrial hemp in a post peak world.
Me to

>oh, And I love you man!
Right on!

Martin

[Tanada]

Most of the members on this board, at least the longer term members, have made adjustments to their work and home lives in preparation for a peak in energy supply.

I think it is well nigh time for everyone here to dust off those plans and ideas short of bugging out to the hills and dropping off the grid because I think we are here.

Kopits presents convincing data sets in his lectures demonstrating that despite the Americans LTO boom the world is no longer in a resource DEMAND driven economy. We are shifting our paradigm from a time of Petroleum abundance to Petroleum scarcity. So far the consequences for the west have been small, a stagnant economy and crazy Government spending levels have been propping things up since 2008 when Oil first broke the $100.00/bbl barrier.

However nothing lasts forever and right now there is nowhere I can find on international spot oil markets under $100.00/bbl. Despite prices everyone thought were impossible to sustain in 2004 when this board came into existence every drop of oil offered for sale is being snatched up by purchasers. We do not know where the top of the price band is, we have to test it to see where the economies slow enough to create a surplus and drive prices down. In 2008 we went up very quickly until we hit $147+/bbl which caused a major contraction, the crash of the housing market in the west and the price collapse to around $38.00/bbl in 2009.

Unfortunately for the consumer driven economies of the west $38.00/bbl was no more sustainable than the $147.00/bbl had been, at those prices there just is not enough oil able to be sold at a break even cost to meet all of the demand.
By early 2011 world oil prices had passed $80.00/bbl, then in late 2012 we passed $90.00/bbl. The USA is producing more internal oil than it has in decades thanks to the LTO boom in North Dakota and Texas, but when you look at world production charts these are the only measurable increases in world supply.

The oil majors are no longer investing in long term expansion of the oil supply, for many reasons. All of the increase in supply we have gained in the last five years has come from small companies fracking as fast as they could to get whatever they could as quickly as they could. However there is a strict limit to how fast you can drill and produce because it takes expensive machinery and expensive labor to do so. Even if there was unlimited labor and machinery available there is a limit to the geographical area's where Fracking produces LTO.

Supply is not going to go up. Sellers like Russia now have come to recognize they can sell everything they produce at a high price because the competition is no longer for market share of an abundant resource. Now that we are here the competition is not from the Sellers trying to edge each other out of the market to sell everything they can produce, the competition now is between the buyers to get everything they want or need to keep their economies functional.

Buckle up boys and girls, the paradigm has shifted, and if Putin knows it he won't be alone in that realization for long. OPEC had its teeth pulled by the flood of oil into the market from the North Sea and Alaska in the 1980's. We have no Alaska and North Sea to look forward too, exploration has failed to find it for decades. If OPEC decides to act in the new paradigm there isn't a heck of a lot the oil importing nations can do about it this time around. We had a golden window of plateau from 2005 to 2014, and for the most part we wasted it.