[aflatoxin]

Twilight:

Thanks for the spec sheet. I'm used to seeing 60 Hz units, which run at 3600 RPM instead of the 50 Hz models at 3000 rpm. These are also E turbines, most of the ones I've seen are FA's, which I think have a much higher pressure ratio, and higher horsepower.

At any rate, the brag about the DryLowNOx system, which reduces nasty NOx emissions to the atmosphere, should be clarified. The DLE system only works on NG. If the Kuwati's are concerned about air pollution, and elect to burn kero/diesel in their fancy new power station, the only way to reduce NOx emissions is with either steam or water injection. GE usually goes with water. These beauties will use about 40 pounds (8 gallons, ~30l) a second of very pure deionized water a second in order to achieve 42 ppm, about triple of what NG does. Without the water, 100-150 ppm is possible/likely.

Lets play fun with math:

120,000 barrels of kerosene a day, at 68.2% Carbon content, and a SG 0f .78 comes to 19.5 tons of kero a day, or ~48 tons of CO2 a day per unit, or 978 tons of CO2 a day for the 20 units.

(They might not be burning higrade kero in these, Maybe #6 or bunker fuel. Makes the CO2 and SO2 a lot higher. Anyways, back to class.....)

If they have the water to spare, a mere 400,000 gallons per unit a day, or 8 million gallons a day for the whole plant, then the NOx emissions might be 42 ppm.

Given that, NOx emissions from one of these gems will be about 160 pounds/hour, if the environmentally-minded Kuwati's wish to part with the drink. Friends, that translates to 696 tons of NOx a year per unit, or almost 14,000 tons a year for the plant. This makes a tasty 37,000 tons of concentrated nitric acid for the environment to enjoy.

If, however they choose to be stingy with the water, this goes up a bit. At 100 ppm of NOx.....

NOx emissions would be about 378 pounds/hour per unit, 1658 tons a year per unit, or about 33,000 tons a year total of NOx (90,000 tons of Nitric acid)

I can't guess about sulfur, depends on the fuel. They would most certainly never burn nasty, high sulfur fuel in these. If they chose to however, it would put the NOx emissions to shame. 100k tons a year of SO2 would not be hard to picture.

wheeze.

[Starvid]

Still, the Export Land Model, after wrangling about things like imports and exports, only tells us that oil will be more expensive on the world market, something we already knew.

I don't see the use of breaking out individual countries exports from total exports, or indeed from the total supply.

The way I see it, it's just not relevant to say "Kuwait will increase its domestic demand, hence exports will fall, pushing prices higher". It's true, sure, but it all becomes clearer and easier to understand if you just say "Kuwait will increase its demand, hence total global demand, and hence prices will rise".

Talking about imports and exports instead of global supply and demand just clouds the issue, in my opinion.

Or have I missed something profound? Please help me understand this.

[azreal60]

I guess starvid the important point your missing is the rate of price rise will hugely increase because of the exporting nations no longer exporting. As their demand increases, most of these nations will Stop exporting. Not just increase the price, but Stop. So it will basically accelerate the rate of price increase and eventual lack of product availability.

Remember, the orginal peak oil projections called for 2 percent decline rate world wide. The reason why this is that much more worrysome is because this increases the decline rate, makes it that much more choppy, and is on top of the already increased decline rate from advanced tech being used and causing fields to go down faster.

It's like going down a 8 percent slope and suddenly it increases to 10 to 16.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') guess starvid the important point your missing is the rate of price rise will hugely increase because of the exporting nations no longer exporting. As their demand increases, most of these nations will Stop exporting. Not just increase the price, but Stop. So it will basically accelerate the rate of price increase and eventual lack of product availability.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'O')ver a week ago I mentioned this, but the thread sank.

Now I have time to elaborate. Here is what I was referring to.

...

By the way, in that same release above, seems Qatar wants an aluminium smelter, although it's going for the full NG-fired CCGT setup. In practicality, that's an improvement on Dubai's ambitions, but that's still gas not arriving at a port near you.

...

This sort of thing replicated across the ME Gulf is going to wipe out any increase OPEC could credibly pull off.

EDIT: Again, I would like to know, can someone make an educated estimate for the rate at which this specific OCGT gear is going to burn liquids, and maybe a boe/d or something so we have an idea of how this compares to crude volumes? I know the refinery balance in the ME Gulf produces kerosene / jet fuel for export, so I am assuming that gigawatts'-worth of guaranteed new demand showing up in 13 months is not going to be negligible.

[Revi]

I loved the movie Children of Men. That seemed like a likely scenario. The rich are getting richer and the rest of us are going to be walking or getting around on small scooters if we're lucky.

[azreal60]

For the people wondering why moderators wheren't moderating this thread, did it occur to you no one sent a moderator who was actually online a PM? I mean, you do realize that to go thru all the threads generated all day, we would have to read this site at least 20 minutes out of every hour ALL DAY. If you see a thread like this one was that needs moderation, feel free to PM us.

Now, on topic, the basis of this idea is as simple as peak oil, and as deadly to a modern way of living. I explained this idea right after peak oil today to a co worker of mine, and it made very good sense in 2 paragraphs of speaking. Wish I could remember them, but it made sense.

So, who wants to take bets on which countries will cut off exports first?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'W')e already know that demand will grow strongly, and it doesn't mean anything if this growth happens in an oil exporting country which then effectively stops exporting, or if the same growth happens in an already importing country. As oil is a fungible product, the effect will be exactly the same.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', 'S')o, who wants to take bets on which countries will cut off exports first?

[Twilight]

Export Land Model - Russia



I have mentioned in various threads around here that Russia may be a special case, in that it is likely to become one of the first countries to exhibit the Export Land effect, but that the blow may be softened by an economic collapse. Over at TOD, one of the criticisms of the Export Land Model is that it does not allow for a dynamic economic environment with feedback effects, for example rising oil prices crippling domestic demand and increasing exports.

I thought this might be worth investigating.

I was surprised to find that Russia is unlikely to suffer significant demand destruction from economic turmoil.

I used the following data:

ASPO Newsletter #31 (July 2003)
Item 212 Country Assessment - Russia

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
FSU Oil Production 1965-1970
Russian Federation Oil Production 1985-2006
FSU Oil Consumption 1965-1970
Russian Federation Oil Consumption 1985-2006

US EIA IPM (current issue)
Russia Oil Production 1970-1985

Sadly the period 1970-1985 is a gap in reasonable quality Russian (not USSR) consumption data, but I found a linear ramp between available data points agreed with ASPO's figure for past production.

Production

I began by assuming 1% production growth to a peak in 2010, in line with BP expectations, then a 7% exponential decline commencing the following year, which basically replicates the ASPO model. As a check the cumulative production looks OK. This decline rate seems reasonable given Russia's long production history, advanced state of depletion and recent use of modern technology, the impact of which can be seen in the massive increase in production rate since 1999.

To create a demand (more accurately, consumption) projection, I split the curve into 3 parts.

Part 1 - Growth
Consumption growth of 5% from 2006 data to the 2010 production peak. This is in line with recent trends.

Part 2 - Decline
The name actually refers to what would be happening to production and exports from 2011 onwards. Consumption growth is assumed to have ceased from the onset of production decline, and it is assumed to remain flat until export volumes fall below consumption. A simplified way of looking at this is the crossover point past which exports no longer pay for domestic consumption.

Part 3 - Collapse

Looking back, around 1988 production and exports fell, but the fall in consumption lagged this event by a couple of years and commenced once exports fell below it. Once consumption fell, the rate broadly matched the production decline rate.

My projection essentially assumes that this behaviour would be repeated, and consumption would commence declining at 7% per year from this crossover point, around 2017.

Exports

This is simply the difference between production and consumption.

An interesting property

We all know that Russia was a basket case during the 1990s. But look at its oil consumption at that time. It hit a floor at around 2,600 kb/d. That is municipal heating and transport. Thousand-apartment complexes heated by fuel oil in winters down to -45 deg C, trains and shipping. It is demand that cannot be destroyed, and you can see how a total political and economic implosion followed by a long depression failed to make a dent. I admit I was slightly suprised by this, but there it is nonetheless, remarkable in its resilience. Given the communal nature of urban living arrangements (hence design of utilities) in most cities, even falling population levels could have limited impact. There is no reason to believe the future will be substantially different.

Therefore my final assumption is oil consumption cannot fall below 2,600 kb/d once it reaches that level, and it will remain there so long as adequate production capacity is available.

Note that Russia's economic "prosperity" will by 2010 have raised consumption to barely 30% above this minimum level. This is because relatively few people are participating in the current boom. Away from the bright lights, people are not driving much, the once oversized defence sector is not making a comeback, and a great deal of work is still done manually.

Export Land Effect

As there is little scope for reduction in domestic consumption, the expected 7% production decline rate will hit oil exports with a decline rate of 11-12%. An economic collapse will offer only limited savings, and although the export decline rate will shallow, it will resume its trajectory once the minimum consumption level is hit. Russia would be out of the export business within 17 years of peak. The later and higher the peak, the higher the eventual decline rate and the faster the erosion of export capacity.

Not long afterwards, around 2030, domestic oil production will cease to meet internal demand, but by then the state of the world will be such that we can take our speculation in any direction.

[Revi]

Export Land Effect By Twilight:

"As there is little scope for reduction in domestic consumption, the expected 7% production decline rate will hit oil exports with a decline rate of 11-12%. An economic collapse will offer only limited savings, and although the export decline rate will shallow, it will resume its trajectory once the minimum consumption level is hit. Russia would be out of the export business within 17 years of peak. The later and higher the peak, the higher the eventual decline rate and the faster the erosion of export capacity.

Not long afterwards, around 2030, domestic oil production will cease to meet internal demand, but by then the state of the world will be such that we can take our speculation in any direction."

Great... Sounds like The scenario in Children of Men, but with more mouths to feed. The Export Land Model puts this whole peak oil thing in even sharper focus. When I read it, it was like finding out about peak oil all over again.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s there is little scope for reduction in domestic consumption, the expected 7% production decline rate will hit oil exports with a decline rate of 11-12%.

[joewp]

The Export Land Model in full swing in Saudi Arabia:

Saudi domestic oil consumption up 6.2pc in '06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')24 August 2007
JEDDAH -- Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption last year went up by 6.2 per cent to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.89 million bpd in 2005 in the wake of economic boom, while its oil production for the international market declined by 2.3 per cent during the same period, according to the ŒBP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007' released recently.

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s there is little scope for reduction in domestic consumption, the expected 7% production decline rate will hit oil exports with a decline rate of 11-12%.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s there is little scope for reduction in domestic consumption, the expected 7% production decline rate will hit oil exports with a decline rate of 11-12%.

[eXpat]

Export land model in action! as for today, due to shortgages in petrol and gasoil Argentina has stopped exporting oil abroad till "situation goes back to normal", link, (I apologize, this is fresh news and I cannot find a link in english, this is from an Argentinian newspaper in spanish), basically there says that starting today, the gov, has halted exports for a period at discretion of the argentinian government, and has ordered that prices go back to those of 31 of October 2007.
Argentina is not by any stretch of imagination an important exporter, but how long till other countries follow suit?

[eXpat]

More on this, here i got an link in English from the Buenos Aires Herald link

[Twilight]

I think the price controls probably have something to do with their problem.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I') think the price controls probably have something to do with their problem.