[Roccland]

that there was a 90% certainty that the stock market would crash to 950 or less by October 1, 2007, would you continue to pay on your debt?

[eastbay]

?????

[Narz]

Course not, but what do you figure are the chances of that?

[Zardoz]

Do you mean 9500?

[Chaparral]

If I knew with 90% certainty then I'd short the living crap out of ES-Z07 or DJ-z07 and hope the exchange didn't go down in flames along with all my "virtual money". More realistically, I'd suspect it will retest the 12,700 range.

[Madpaddy]

If I knew the DOW would hot 950 by 1st October, I would invest the last remnants of my virtual money in barbed wire and underpants.

[PeakOiler]

Hmmm, lets see.
House and land paid off.
Honda Insight paid off.
F-150 paid off.
No credit card debt.
No student loans.
No children.

I still owe the tax man till I die. (Recollections of an old Beatles tune...)

I still buy most of my food at the local grocery. Still working on reducing that.

I still haven't made a will. So there's a lawyer fee in there somewhere...

I still need to pay for funeral expenses, (or should I just dig a 6 ft hole in my backyard now)? (Someone else will have to shovel the dirt of course, so there's a small fee there...I'll leave some cash on the coffee table.)

I still have a good American middle-class paycheck and a stable job.

This month's total home power bill was $73.58. (The 40 gal. solar water heater is working quite well this month--near 200 deg. F. That hot rainwater is leaving the dishes spotless.

I guess I couldn't care less about the stock market since I invest in things more "real." Like trees. I'm considering buying 5 acres of undeveloped land nearby.

I am about to get more PV to power my frig. I'm going to invest some of the savings for that. I'm still shopping for the PV. Any recommendations?

Where's the n/a choice in the poll? I guess I have to choose #1.

[AirlinePilot]

950???

Is that a typo???

If it isn't, than I'm going out to get a lot more bullets than I have now.

[Jack]

If I really believed that, I'd keep good credit, open a margin account, and buy as much of the ultrashort ETFs as I could.

Or, if I was 99% confident, I'd open a futures account and short the indicies.

But...every time I've seen a professional analyst who was that certain...they've been...WRONG

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')f I really believed that, I'd keep good credit, open a margin account, and buy as much of the ultrashort ETFs as I could.

Or, if I was 99% confident, I'd open a futures account and short the indicies.

But...every time I've seen a professional analyst who was that certain...they've been...WRONG

[crossthread]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '9')50???

Is that a typo???

If it isn't, than I'm going out to get a lot more bullets than I have now.

[Tyler_JC]

Roccland, 950 for the DJIA is ludicrous and you know it.

The current dividend yield for the Dow is 2.5%.

At 950, the dividend yield increases rather sharply to 35%.

I can't imagine anyone who wouldn't invest their last penny into stocks at that level.

We will never see a dividend yield for the DJIA greater than the best paying government bonds, ergo, the lowest the Dow can fall to is in the ~7000 range.

We might retest 12,000 but it seems unlikely that we will see a level substantially below that this year.

And if you really believe the economy is going to fall apart by the fall, put your money where your mouth is and make a fortune in the futures market.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')I like your pretty rainbow colors Jack, are you trying to tell us something?

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '
')I like your pretty rainbow colors Jack, are you trying to tell us something?

[jasonraymondson]

Here is how everything is going to play out.

Stocks will continue to bounce up and down for the remainder of the year, but will finish around 12500 by around christmas time.

Next year when the next sets of subprimes and other loans are called in we will see wide spread panic, and probably another sell off of about 1500. Taking us to dow 10,000.

This is where the dow will stagnate. As more and more people are layed off due the banking and credit problems, we will see more and more corporations and private companies lay more and more help off. At this point another false flag terrorist operation will take place and we will begin war with someone knew. This false flag though will be so realistic and scary that everyone will welcome to the draft and virtually all remaining rights will be taken.


This is how it will happen, I am damn near ready to bet my balls on it.