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Has the fan been hit?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Do you think recent events in the stock markets mark the beginning of the economic crash peakers were expecting?

Yes
39
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No
26
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Don't know
22
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Total votes : 87

Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 18 Aug 2007, 09:01:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'P')lan for slow deterioration, painful reconfiguration, and thinning of the herd.

Yeah, I'm also in this camp. While Seahorse is correct about resource constraints ultimately being the undoing of capitalism, those anxiously anticipating an overnight collapse will be disappointed. The wheels will not suddenly fall off. The machine will slowly grind to a halt over a space of very many years. Everybody will have a stake in nursing it along for as long as possible, so that's what we'll all work together to do. We'll prop it up for as long as we can.

Nevertheless, the deterioration of the system will be excruciatingly painful to watch, and to be a part of, knowing full well that it will be irreversible.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 18 Aug 2007, 13:19:28

Empty pumps and blackouts in big cities will be the only indicators that the MSM will pay any attention to. Troubles with refineries or stories about big fields declining 15% in a year are too abstract for your average Amerikan in the USSA to care about. That's what I tell people who wonder when Peak Oil will "happen." Unfortunately it means no one will have done any mitigation beforehand; also that they'll crap their pants with rage when it does go down, just like people howled for terrorists' heads on poles after 9/11.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby PrairieMule » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 16:38:20

STATE OF CONFUSION SAY:

When the TSHF, doomers in the know will have already positioned the fan to evenly distribute the free fertilizer across the garden

GONG!
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby Lore » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 17:48:53

I'm not sure how some future unemployed hedge fund operators, several less Armani suit sales, a few Viking yachts and several less Citation jets sold really effects me.

When I can't get groceries at the store, or buy a gallon of gas for love nor money, I think then we have a real problem.
Last edited by Lore on Sun 19 Aug 2007, 22:07:59, edited 1 time in total.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby thuja » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 20:43:36

Listen to Tommy Jefferson-

Long slow ride down with nice bumps and plateaus in the middle. Let the Uber-doomers dream about the lights going out and the bare grocery stores. Then go about the business of becoming poorer and poorer every day. Frogs slowly boiling, not deep fried.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 20:49:35

Hmmmmm, tazer?

Well now, who's gonna clean the contacts after he grabs them with both hands. No, I say stand by and allow the medics and the dep't contract shrink deal with the freak.
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Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby killJOY » Sun 19 Aug 2007, 21:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ommyJefferson is 100% correct.

How do you know that, mr 100%?
You don't. And neither does he.
I prefer "preponderance of evidence" over either/or answers.
Fact is, I've prepared, I've been prepared, and the rest of you can go f**k-all with your ruminations.

I want to talk instead about the FUNNIEST acronym I just saw on The Oil Drum, from someone called OMGlikeWTF:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]WTFWJDWTSHTF?

wHATiT'SaLLaBOUT,bEYOTCH.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby killJOY » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 07:30:14

Yeah. OMGlikeWTF has managed to string together a bunch of acronyms into one hilarious salad:

WTF
WWJD
WTSHTF
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby Narz » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 21:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'E')njoy watching the Doom masturbators pleasure themselves, but don't make life decisions based upon their ejaculations.

Heh, member quotes material. :lol:
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby drgoodword » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 07:58:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I') respectfully disagree that energy is one of the "big" reasons.
I think that the liquidity pump of the End of the Greenspan era would have led to this same result even if oil was 20 a barrel.
In short, the game was that ever more credit would be extended until the music stopped.
That's it.
The music has stopped.

Agreed.
The current housing, market and credit crisis has little to do with peak oil, whether we are at peak or just on the cusp.
During his nineteen-year reign as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan systematicaly leveraged the U.S. petrodollar to sustain a relatively robust level of economic growth, despite a consistenly declining manufacturing sector.

The most dramatic era of this artificial economic growth was the period 2002-2006. Historically, a stock market crash like the one in 2001 is followed by a recession. Greenspan cut the recession short by supporting consumer spending through the creation of the biggest housing bubble in history. During the period 2000-2005, the median U.S. home price increased an unprecedented 55%, while some areas experienced price gains as much as 130%.

The housing bubble did three things. Number one, it created tens of thousands of jobs in the burgeoning home construction industry, which in itself was a significant contributor to economic growth. Secondly, it made Americans feel rich. As the average American homeowner saw the value of his main asset--his home--increase year after year, he was wealthier on paper, and this gave him the confidence to spend.

Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, the nature of the housing bubble architecture--with systematic and incremental decreases in the federal funds rate--allowed the American homeowner to reguarly refinance his mortgage at a lower rate, thus putting an extra couple of thousand dollars into his pockets annually. Along with the larger phenomenon of massive mortgage equity withdrawal, consumer spending, and thus GDP, was maintained at a positive rate.

But this credit bubble was built with a number of explosive, self-destructive elements, the worst of which was the remarkable lowering of lending standards. The so-called no-doc mortgage allowed, if not encouraged, borrowers (along with their enablers, mortgage brokers and lenders) to lie about their income and other financial information, in order to qualify for a mortgage. Finanically irresponsible "interest-only" ARM mortgage were heavily marketed. And then these hundreds of billions of dollars of "toxic loans" were securitized via complex mathematical models and sold off around the world as high-grade investments, helping to fuel the the ever-expanding, U.S.-based global credit bubble.

Then, in 2006, foreclosures began rising. Housing prices stalled for the first time in five years. The great Greenspan housing/credit bubble ship finally hit its destined iceberg. Ever since, observers have watched in horror as the housing/credit collapse spread. It finally broke into public consciousness this year with major and universal stock market turmoil in response to the ever increasing effects of the collapse: multiple hedge funds experiencing crisis; possible bank failures in America and Europe; and the seemingly inevitable decline of consumer spending in the U.S.

Of course, peak oil will bring its own financial calamities--bad enough to dwarf the damage of the housing/credit collapse. But what we are experiencing now, in 2007, in terms of economic problems, is the result of the growth-at-any cost policies of the American Juggernaut, designed and implemented by Alan Greenspan, the man who destroyed the modern free market.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 13:19:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'E')njoy watching the Doom masturbators pleasure themselves, but don't make life decisions based upon their ejaculations.

Heh, member quotes material. :lol:

exactly.
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire

"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas

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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby Madpaddy » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 13:45:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ommyJefferson wrote: Enjoy watching the Doom masturbators pleasure themselves, but don't make life decisions based upon their ejaculations.
Heh, member quotes material.

LOL - member quotes.
Get it. Hahahaha
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby drgoodword » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 00:35:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'M')y big question about Greenspan is . . .
When did he sell out and why?
I'd love to know.

While we'll probably never know why the U.S. was led so deeply into an exitless economic tunnel, personally, I doubt that Greenspan's plan was intentionally destructive.

Sometimes I wonder about the internet rumour that Greenspan, while still doing grad work in economics, thought that he had figured out a way to beat a Kondratieff winter (if such things exist), if he were Fed Chariman during one (his supposed solution: lower interest rates and print money to overwhelm deflation). At the end of the day, I suspect Greenspan's disasterous (in the long-term) helming of the American/Global economy was probably an all-too common case of intellectual hubris. Greenspan thought he had a system that could beat the house, but, as we all know, no one ever really beats the house. And now the whole world is sitting on a big, green zero.

P.S. Gideon, I have to ask: what is the story behind your avatar? It's like Calvin & Hobbes meets Lord Of The Flies.
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Re: Has the fan been hit?

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 02:01:51

For the love of Jehovah, you can't decouple the energy situation from the economic.

Stephen Leeb wrote two books on the subject. The Oil Factor, and The Coming Economic Collapse. So far his predictions seem to be MOA accurate (for you gun buffs).

If you smoothed out the oil graph, you just about overlay one with the other.

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