Cynus said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he EIA updated their figures for up to May 2007 today and we're officially 2 years without a production increase.
PeakOil is You
Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by shortonoil » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 11:34:50
Even though oil production has not fallen in two years, the ERoEI of oil has fallen, and at about 1/2 unit per year. We have the same amount of oil, which is irrelevant; what we have is less available energy. With a world wide ERoEI of 18:1 at the well head, and an ERoEI of 4 to 5 for the finished product to the consumer, available energy from oil is presently falling at 10% per year, and accelerating. The impact of this will strike as a staggering world wide economic decline once the central banks can no longer expand the money supply enough to paper over the situation. That should be next year.
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shortonoil - False ETP Prophet
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by HorneyGeekBoi » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 18:22:52
Oh trust me, the powers that will be will be disguising peak oil and using their propaganda tools to keep the majority complacent. Government always had one simple rule for dealing with people, do anything, lie if nessasary, to stop them panicking or rioting... When the inevitable occurs, martial law is declared and criminals or suspected criminals are shot as an example to those who want to step up... Rule by fear... The government and their militia/army/police/guard will always have the weapons, equipment, vehicles, air support and oil it needs to function....
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by frankthetank » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 20:07:37
I'm going to be pissed if a zombie eats myself or my wife. I agree we are passed and will never see an increase, but i still think the effects are a ways off yet. The effects from this housing mess may be bad enough.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by TreebeardsUncle » Mon 13 Aug 2007, 03:40:50
Ok.
So, stock in deep-water off-shore drillers like Diamond Offshore and Noble Corporation should be good summer trades as long as recessions don't become too severe. Am wondering how big an impact Cantarel's depletion will have on oil futures and stocks appreciation in the summer of 2009.
g
So, stock in deep-water off-shore drillers like Diamond Offshore and Noble Corporation should be good summer trades as long as recessions don't become too severe. Am wondering how big an impact Cantarel's depletion will have on oil futures and stocks appreciation in the summer of 2009.
g
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by shortonoil » Mon 13 Aug 2007, 09:36:44
frankthetank said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut i still think the effects are a ways off yet.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ut i still think the effects are a ways off yet.
Central banks, worldwide, are pouring unprecedented amounts of money into the financial markets in an attempt to prevent a melt down. This will have only a limited short term effect. The underlying problem is that investors have lost faith in the bond market, and no amount of liquidity will cure that problem for very long. The assets backing the bonds are rapidly loosing value, and the bonds are reciprocating in kind.
What we are witnessing is the ultimate demise that all fiat currencies eventually experience; without growth they are not sustainable. As energy availability declines, which is the precursor to all economic activity, so does the growth needed to maintain those currencies. One way the banking system can delay the inevitable is by greatly increasing the money supply. This tricks people into believing that the currency they are using is still viable, even when it is in serious decline. This is what the central banks have been doing for several years; they have been doing this by producing double digit growth rates in the world's money supply.
But, creating money out of thin air does not produce wealth. Real estate, both commercial and private, corporate bonds, pension funds, annuities and trusts are collapsing in value. As a result of the huge leverages used in the markets to camouflage pyramiding risks, that leverage is now working rapidly to unravel the illusion of wealth that it created.
The only impediment to this decline, which will accelerate rapidly, is peoples inability or unwillingness to see the tenacious predicament that we are in. They are just not yet connecting the dots: like, when mortgage backed bonds are declining in value, that means the houses backing those bonds are also declining at the same rate. That when investors leave the housing bond market, that new loans for housing are no longer possible. When loans for housing are no longer possible, the GDP of the country falls by 10%. A decline of 10% in the nations GDP puts you into a depression. And etc.
The effects are not way off; there is almost no grace period remaining.
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by newman1979 » Mon 13 Aug 2007, 21:55:36
Rembrant on the Aug. 13 TOD site has posted up to date June data that shows a 500,000 b/d drop in total liquids and many country graphs.
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Re: Hooray! We're 2 years post-peak!
by PraiseDoom » Tue 14 Aug 2007, 23:34:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('newman1979', 'R')embrant on the Aug. 13 TOD site has posted up to date June data that shows a 500,000 b/d drop in total liquids and many country graphs.
Now if we can just get DEMAND revved back up again, maybe we can create a real shortage somewhere!
It would be nice, before the end of ANOTHER driving season post peak, for someone in the developed world to NOTICE already.
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