[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o how exactly, when nobody seems interested in building new refineries, do we get an excess of refining capacity within a couple of years?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o how exactly, when nobody seems interested in building new refineries, do we get an excess of refining capacity within a couple of years?

[cat]

They really have no clue, they are just trying to cover all their bases - they are even admitting to it now: http://www.startribune.com/535/story/1347864.html

[Jester]

Considering production hasn't grown in 2 years? while demand has continued to grow, I still don't see a big surplus of refining capacity coming.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cat', 'T')hey really have no clue, they are just trying to cover all their bases - they are even admitting to it now: http://www.startribune.com/535/story/1347864.html

[virgincrude]

April-3-2007 Guru focus.com


Robert Rodriguez’s Perspectives on Energy Stocks

Robert Rodriguez: When I entered the investment industry in 1971, worldwide oil consumption was approximately 45 million barrels per day versus 84 million today. The last major oil fields to be discovered were in 1968 at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska and the Shaybah offshore field in Saudi Arabia. We are on the verge of doubling consumption and yet, there have been no other major fields discovered. In the case of the Shaybah field, production began in 1998, so this has helped Saudi Arabia to maintain its daily production. After nearly forty years of searching, with the most advanced technology available and no major fields to show for it, does this not raise a question as to the likelihood of a continuation of low-cost energy prices? Between 1933 and 1970, the price per barrel of oil increased at approximately a 10% compound growth rate, from 10 cents to $3.39. With huge oil discoveries in the 1930s, 40s and 60s, oil prices were low and controlled by the U.S. For many of these years, the price was maintained between $1 and $2 per barrel. With the peak in U.S. oil production in 1970, the world entered a new era. Between 1970 and 2006, oil prices have grown at about an 8.6% annual rate. Much of this rise has occurred in short time periods. As demand grew into the available supply, oil prices began to escalate. For the entire 73-year period, oil prices have grown at approximately a 9.3% annual rate. Given that there have been no major oil discoveries since the late 1960s, this raises the question of what might the rate of growth be in oil prices going forward. If we are to be conservative, possibly a 5% growth rate might be appropriate. This would be a little more than half the rate of growth for the last 73 years. If this were to occur, a barrel of oil would cost approximately $100 in ten years. For consumers not to experience an increase in their energy spending as a percentage of total spending, either their incomes have to grow in line with energy prices or they will have to reduce their energy use. Either way, this could affect the nature and growth of the economy considerably.

[NotMyBlood]

The local news in DC last night said Gas prices should be 2.50-2.55 by December. Energy Crisis? What Energy Crisis???

:):):

[Ming]

This says it all about that guy...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eutel sees oil prices falling all the way to the $25 to $35 a barrel range in late 2006 or 2007.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ming', 'T')his says it all about that guy...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eutel sees oil prices falling all the way to the $25 to $35 a barrel range in late 2006 or 2007.

[Zardoz]

Am I the only one who gets used to higher and higher crude oil prices so quickly that the current NYMEX price of $72 seems cheap, somehow?

What am I thinking of? How can seventy-two big ones seem like a bargain? Yet, somehow, it does.

[Waterthrush]

I saw the guy on CNBC Monday. I was disgusted. People like him are why this society is finding excuses to do nothing. Thanks for the link, it's now inserted into my Peak Oil diary, along with all the statements from GM about why they were being realistic in not building a hybrid.

Still, it's buying me some time to keep preparing. As the Huguenots used to say, "There is no need of hope to begin, nor of success to continue." They didn't really succeed, but *some* of them made it.

[sameu]

those people are saying the same bullshit as when oil was $40 in 2004
You may fool all the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')m I the only one who gets used to higher and higher crude oil prices so quickly that the current NYMEX price of $72 seems cheap, somehow?

[ekaggata]

Two comments that might be relevant, might be useful and might be nonsense

1. The reason oil prices are not shooting to the moon is, I think, a process of demand destruction in the 3rd world. If you follow the news carefully on the internet, you will see this everywhere, it's been going on ever since oil surged from $10 to $40 in the early part of this decade. This is the reality of peak oil, right now, but most people seem to have too parochial an attitude to even notice it

2. The reason for the last week's sudden drop from $78ish to $70ish probably has a lot more to do with the sudden liquidity crisis in the credit market/bond market and the fact that big hedge funds have been scrambling to get some cash (notice the drop in the carry trade). That is only my opinion, but not only my opinion.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ekaggata', 'T')wo comments that might be relevant, might be useful and might be nonsense

1. The reason oil prices are not shooting to the moon is, I think, a process of demand destruction in the 3rd world. If you follow the news carefully on the internet, you will see this everywhere, it's been going on ever since oil surged from $10 to $40 in the early part of this decade. This is the reality of peak oil, right now, but most people seem to have too parochial an attitude to even notice it

2. The reason for the last week's sudden drop from $78ish to $70ish probably has a lot more to do with the sudden liquidity crisis in the credit market/bond market and the fact that big hedge funds have been scrambling to get some cash (notice the drop in the carry trade). That is only my opinion, but not only my opinion.

[Denny]

It is strange that the same people who believe in a rapid and long term auto industry growth in India and China also believe in stable or even declining oil prices. If annual sales grow at such and such a rate, then autos on the road grow exponentially. Its just mathematics.

Just the growth in autos in use in these two countries wil rapidly escalate world demand for motor fuels. Think of America in the 1920's.

If only we could be as clever at finding new oil reserves or suitable alternatives as fast as the thirsty fuel tanks multiply!