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Calm before the Storm?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 15:38:51

After the first 3-4 months of this year I was convinced that something "big" was going to happen and soon. Maybe more than just one "Big" event. Now, the housing debacle is just get starting and that "Big" event which may have ramifications that we havent even considered yet, but the "predictions" of just about everything are falling short. I really thought the chances of a broader War in the Middle East were pretty high(now, im not so sure), the Hurricane season would surley produce a few cat 5's - so far nothing, Gas prices would rise close to 4 dollars a gallon - I paid 2.79 today, a terrorist attack in the US? - nope - looks like our government is doing a pretty good job of containing terrorist activities, A Dollar Crash coupled with a recession? - not yet, but thats inching closer and closer......etc etc etc...

All those pundants predicting this, that and the other even in the MSM. Nothing. (except Housing - which again is pretty significant)

Are these the normal dog days of August? The Calm before the Storm? Or is it just like the conservative experts predict - like kunstler. Its a Long emergency. A housing bubble here, bridge collapse there, a war in iraq, a little inflation....that never seems to get any better. And in 5 years , these events will increase but it will all become normal in a slowly paced emergency. One day, you wake up and your nephew is at War, your wife is pregnant with no health insurance, the car needs repair from running over a massive pothole, you have 100 bucks in your checking account and the county is asking for more tax revenue......
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:02:15

So, up for a little conspiracy theory?

Wonder why R-Sen. Trent Lott wants Congress to extend the one week vacation until after 11 Sep??
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:02:56

There really isn't any precedant for what's coming, it's new territory and will be bizzare, irrational, chaotic and perplexing for nearly everyone. Critical thinking is the only thing that's particularly useful from here on out. People that rely on experience, trends and such will get royally screwed.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby Jack » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:13:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', 'O')r is it just like the conservative experts predict - like kunstler. Its a Long emergency...

That's it, exactly.
Once upon a time...decades ago, back in the mid 1970's...I played around with futures a bit. At the time, there was a much-touted drought in the Midwest, and the evening news had sad-faced farmers holding dead wheat plants in their hands.
I lapped it up, like a hungry kitten eating cream. For you see, I was long some wheat contracts. I felt certain I would be rich by the next afternoon at the very latest.

What I didn't realize was that the news was already out there for everyone to see. Which meant that the market reaction had already taken place, from producers to suppliers to speculators. So I turned a modest profit, but nothing great.
Now, contrast that with Exxon (now Exxon-Mobile) stock. In June, 1980, it was $30 per share and paid a dividend of $3 per share annually. It's presently up 16 fold (after adjusting for splits - and that's without adding in those accumulated dividends. Notice the immense difference between the short term (exciting, not significant) and the long term (boring, highly significant).

We tend to see the world in terms of the short term - months, at best, and more like weeks and days. So we look at the reports and become quite excited when Gwahar is down by 0.000001% versus yesterday. (I don't exclude myself - I'm well aware that I'm as susceptible to good doomer-porn as the next gloom 'n doomer).

I don't think we'll see it work that way. A global economic crash that reduces us all to zombie hordes may be possible, but it's unlikely. It will, as you outline nicely, be a slow, painful grind. A fast crash would destroy old patterns, realign attitudes (perhaps) and let us begin adapting. The "long emergency" will tempt us to hold on to the established ways of thinking and doing, and it will hurt (at least, figuratively). And we'll lie to ourselves about tomorrow being better.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:15:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'S')o, up for a little conspiracy theory?
Wonder why R-Sen. Trent Lott wants Congress to extend the one week vacation until after 11 Sep??

I didnt know he wanted too. Umm, whats the angle? What is his stated purpose for such an extension? More time to go fishing?
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:23:43

Jack, thats whay I think A fast crash would be much better. Like jumping into a cold pool or ocean. Just go ahead and get it over with. quicky. :):) But thats never going to happen, at least not in a planned way.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:39:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', 'A')ll those pundants predicting this, that and the other even in the MSM. Nothing. (except Housing - which again is pretty significant)

Just on the wire. No real article for it yet NYSE says instituted downside trading curbs
Twice within 10 days. I'd say that's something

btw, S&P down more than 2% in the last 2 hours. This erases all rebound gains for the week. Nice way to end off a Friday. Say do you guys have a long weekend down there. Large stock market fall before a long weekend. Couldn't ask for a better setup.
Patience 'Blood, the interesting times are coming
Angry yet?
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 16:51:00

Patience 'Blood, the interesting times are coming
lol, I know, I know......

Isnt it usual to have a slowdown in the mraket during August? Also, I just heard that the Fed will most likely lower rates next week to show that they are doing something to contain the housing scare. I know, Im posting alot, but its a really slow, slow day.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 17:21:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'l')ooks like our government is doing a pretty good job of containing terrorist activities

Yeah, I heard an abused wife telling a friend the same thing the other day. "Looks like my husband is doing a pretty good job of containing wife beating activities."

Bit of a stretch Gideon , dont you think?

Concerning terrorist attacks, only Terrorist Attacks, the record speaks for itself. Since 9/11, which took place quite some time ago, the US hasnt been attacked since. In fact, its foiled several plots/cells. The UK/Europe in general seems to be an easier target for radical islam, for various reasons. Hey AQ via their liberal friend ABC put out a press release just the other day, claiming a 'big surprise' soon. -- The reaction by the MSM/Internet/citizens - yawn......
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 17:40:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'S')o, up for a little conspiracy theory?
Wonder why R-Sen. Trent Lott wants Congress to extend the one week vacation until after 11 Sep??

I didnt know he wanted too. Umm, whats the angle? What is his stated purpose for such an extension? More time to go fishing?

He wouldn't elaborate on it......
Last edited by Ferretlover on Mon 09 Jun 2008, 09:28:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby jbrovont » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 17:47:31

Looks like you guys are already on it a few posts back, but I drove past a ticker on the way home and at that moment the dow was down something like 280 pts.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 18:42:18

Gideon, you're telling me Bush/Cheney went to all the trouble to involve 3 commericial Airliners , the WTC, thousand of NYFD/NYPD and countless government officials/commands all to have an excuse to invade Afghanistan? you really , truly believe that? - Look, I know how passionate you 9/11 truth movement believers and Rosie Odonnell get, so I really don't want to flame. I'll just say , "No freaking Way". I'll discuss it with you though, maybe in a different thread.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby billp » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 20:12:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile Mr Zoubin did not respond to our suggestion, nothing unfortunate has happened yet.

TWA 800? Absolutely not. Just a coincidence.
But we don't trust the government.
Cheers
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:26:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', 'G')ideon, you're telling me Bush/Cheney went to all the trouble to involve 3 commericial Airliners , the WTC, thousand of NYFD/NYPD and countless government officials/commands all to have an excuse to invade Afghanistan? you really , truly believe that? - Look, I know how passionate you 9/11 truth movement believers and Rosie Odonnell get, so I really don't want to flame. I'll just say , "No freaking Way". I'll discuss it with you though, maybe in a different thread.

Thousands of government workers ? Not hardly. Actually only a handful was needed. NORAD had no idea what was going. Neither did anybody else.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:54:46

So, it was just Bush,Cheney, a few others, and 19 Saudi Arabians. Instead of just letting people believe that the buildings were bombed by some terrorist organization, they had to make it look good for the camera's. So they also hijacked a few commercial 747s and in addition to bombing the buildings , because according to the theory the 747's couldn't of brought down the building by themselves, they also crashed some planes into the buildings.

And what was the purpose for all of this? To invade Afghan and Iraq. But instead of creating the false flag to have direct evidence linking Saddam Hussien, they leave that out...........

again, why did they go to all this trouble? 5 years after invading Iraw, what did this conspiracy accomplish? Ohh yeah, Haliburton , i suppose , has got a few more contracts....

wow!!!
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 23:32:34

alot of those hijackers have been seen since 911
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 23:44:29

To the OP, things take time to play out. Take the subprime mess, that's gonna be a/the big issue in the economy for AT LEAST a year. As for oil, well think of it this way, when we hit $78 things carry on much the same in the US but somewhere in the developing world someone just said "fuck it" and dumped their car. Doom may come in a beautiful spontaneous conflagration :) , or it may slowly drip, drip, drip, drip. :(

But fear not DOOM is upon us! :-D
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 23:46:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'a')lot of those hijackers have been seen since 911

Per the BBC report which was debunked by the ...err.. BBC! Damn those neo-con shills at the BBC! :roll:
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 00:17:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', 'T')o the OP, things take time to play out. Take the subprime mess, that's gonna be a/the big issue in the economy for AT LEAST a year. As for oil, well think of it this way, when we hit $78 things carry on much the same in the US but somewhere in the developing world someone just said "fuck it" and dumped their car. Doom may come in a beautiful spontaneous conflagration :) , or it may slowly drip, drip, drip, drip. :(

But fear not DOOM is upon us! :-D


Its taken awhile for me to come to that conclusion, Im a pretty optimistic person. And there is a great deal of fascinating research going on in both science and technology. But I have to agree, Doom whether it be slow or quick is in the cards. Especially here in the States. The standard of living for the masses will have to be adjusted. And its not going to 'adjust' voluntarily.

Maybe there will be parallel worlds. One in which the minority "super wealthy' will continue developing science and technology and one in which the majority lives day by day. ( The movie Children of Men comes to mind.) While GlobalCorp sends a chosen few to populate a new planet, the rest live in squaller.
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Re: Calm before the Storm?

Unread postby BastardSquad » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 02:28:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NotMyBlood', ' ') One day, you wake up and your nephew is at War, your wife is pregnant with no health insurance, the car needs repair from running over a massive pothole, you have 100 bucks in your checking account and the county is asking for more tax revenue......

ARE YOU FUCKING RETARDED????!!!!
I hate to be the one to tell you this,but myself,and millions upon millions of other Americans live this reality everyday!We're called the "working poor".
You are so far detached from reality I really don't know what to say!
I'm speechless. :shock:
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"As for the dieoff of 5E+09 people - not a problem, so long as I'm not one of them." Jack
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