[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'M')onday will probably be down...the AHM issue that Roccland spotted will scare many.

But peak oil isn't on the scopes yet. Look at the futures markets - you can buy a contract for September 2007 at $77.02.

December 2012 is $70.56.

If there's a supply crunch today, the only logic for the 2012 price is expectation of much lower demand or far higher supply.

When you see the 2012 contract at, say, double the nearest month - that's the time to start getting scared. Because that means the futures traders have looked into the pit and seen peak.

Not the futures pit...a different pit...

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '
')I think some of this phenom is due to the fact that people know they can't really predict oil up or down within a one month window. The error bars on an expected value of $70 per barrel almost five years a way surely includes $100 and $40 per barrel. People who make money off of futures have a much shorter term stategy and I'm certain they must know something about the basics of time series analysis. You cannot predict next year within %5 reliably, how are you gonna feel confident with five years out? that to me is the biggest factor. And someone also told me the contracts are very lightly traded. I accept the futures market as a trend up to six months out, but the exact magnitude is not accurate. The futures contracts show us a curve that represents what we think we know about the market, but we have to understand how little that actually is.

[Zardoz]

CNN is feeling uncertain about stocks:

U.S. stock futures point to more selling after one of roughest weeks for Wall Street in years; earnings, employment report in focus.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tocks could be in for more pain Monday following last week's selloff, the worst on Wall Street in years.

At 8:14 a.m. ET, futures were lower after being narrowly higher earlier in the morning, as the fears that sent stocks reeling last week remain at the surface.

David Kelly, managing director and an economic advisor for Putnam Investments, said it wasn't any specific news that sent futures lower. Instead he attributed it to investors still not being certain about the impact that problems in subprime mortgages and corporate debt markets would have on the overall markets.

In the latest sign of trouble in the debt markets, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (Charts) announced late Friday that its banks are demanding it put up more cash after the mortgage lender wrote down the value of its loan and security portfolios significantly. Shares were down more than 25 percent in premarket trading.

"I think there's been a big increase in volatility in the last two weeks and I don't expect it to suddenly disappear," said Kelly. "There's a lot of nervousness out there. This is a classic issue that people think shouldn't be that bad, but no one can quite quantify it."

[firestarter]

Pre market has been up and down and sideways. Maybe we're in line for a dead cat bounce. We should see early on where the day is gonna take us. If the credit markets are truly seizing up then I think it will be reflected in more selling today. At an rate, there's a long week of trading ahead of us along with a lot of economic data coming out that will likely move the markets one way or the other.

[TommyJefferson]

Over the weekend the MSM reported that this is the greatest buying opportunity since 1987.

[firestarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'O')ver the weekend the MSM reported that this is the greatest buying opportunity since 1987.

[Roccland]

Selling it is...



Subprime fun sailing away...Hedge fund manager John Devaney looking to sell 142-foot yacht for $23.5 million after bad bet on subprime mortgage assets.

[firestarter]

AHM can't be traded. Might be in the process of being delisted.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'A')HM can't be traded. Might be in the process of being delisted.

[Zardoz]

Relax. Everything's fine. Nothing to worry about:

A triple-digit change in the Dow means... almost nothing. Fortune's Allan Sloan explains the math, and why you shouldn't panic in tough times.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been writing about markets and playing around with stocks for close to 40 years, but I have no clue where the market will go next.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'R')elax. Everything's fine. Nothing to worry about:

A triple-digit change in the Dow means... almost nothing. Fortune's Allan Sloan explains the math, and why you shouldn't panic in tough times.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been writing about markets and playing around with stocks for close to 40 years, but I have no clue where the market will go next.

[jdumars]

It looks like I may not have been optimistic enough!

[firestarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'I')t looks like I may not have been optimistic enough!

[wxman]

BHP Billiton up over 5%. Turns out that people are still building crap in Asia.

[skiwi]

US hedge funds dump kiwi dollar

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')iant US hedge funds are dumping the New Zealand dollar in the foreign exchange market on expectations that its recent plunge has further to run.

Since US sub-prime mortgage and credit market woes spilled over into the forex market last week, the kiwi has lost just over 6 per cent of its value against the greenback as carry trade positions are unwound...

[mmasters]

Looks OK so far...

I'm starting to think that when they say things are "under control" that means is the media has the general public fooled.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'T')hings look OK so far...

[Roccland]

Hmmmmmmmm...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ILWAUKEE, July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG - News; "MGIC") announced today that it has concluded that the value of its investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC ("C-BASS") has been materially impaired. C-BASS is a limited liability company whose interests are owned by MGIC, Radian Group Inc. and the management of C-BASS. C-BASS is principally engaged in the business of investing in the credit risk of subprime single-family residential mortgages. Beginning in February 2007, the market for subprime mortgages has experienced significant turmoil, with market dislocations accelerating to unprecedented levels beginning in approximately mid-July 2007.
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MGIC's investment in C-BASS consists of approximately $466 million of equity as of June 30, 2007 and an additional $50 million drawn on July 20 and 23, 2007 under a $50 million unsecured credit facility that MGIC provided to C-BASS. As of June 30, 2007 on a pro forma basis reflecting the amounts drawn under this credit facility, MGIC's investment in C-BASS was approximately $516 million. MGIC has not determined the range of an impairment charge, although the upper boundary of the range could be MGIC's entire investment, less any associated tax benefit.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'T')hings look OK so far...

[Eli]

I think everything is going to continue like it has until it can't.


I would like this whole thing to come down because oil prices shoot through the roof and we find out that OPEC cannot increase production.