[DantesPeak]

Draft report entitled "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy" by the National Petroleum Council says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')otential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore
By BHUSHAN BAHREE
July 16, 2007; Page A2

World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.

In the draft report, oil-industry leaders acknowledge the world will need to develop all the supplemental sources of energy it can -- ranging from biofuels to nuclear power to oil extracted by unconventional means from the oil sands of Canada -- to meet soaring demand. The surge in demand is expected to arise from rapid economic growth in such fast-developing countries as China and India, as well as mounting consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy market.

The findings suggest that, far from being temporary, high energy prices are likely for decades to come.

"In geoeconomic terms, the biggest impact will come from increasing demand for oil and natural gas from developing countries," said the draft report, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. "This demand may outpace timely development of new supply sources, thereby pressuring prices to rise."

The study, which was requested by U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in October 2005, was conducted by the National Petroleum Council, an industry group that advises the secretary.

The conclusions appear to be the first explicit concession by the petroleum industry that it alone can't meet burgeoning global demand for oil, which may rise to as much as 120 million barrels a day by 2030 from about 84 million barrels a day currently, according to some projections.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ouston investment banker Matthew Simmons takes a pessimistic view. He believes the world should be preparing for sharply lower oil production. He points out the NPC study didn't squarely address one important issue raised by Mr. Bodman in requesting the study: the point at which global oil production will plateau and then begin to decline, often referred to by the shorthand term "peak oil."

"We should be preparing for a time when, in 10, 15 or 20 years, oil production is likely to be 40 million barrels a day to 60 million barrels a day, not 120 million," he said.

[SILENTTODD]

Buy another bicycle. If you don’t have one, get one now! As I have been advocating since I first joined this Blog!

[Zardoz]

It looks like the report will consign the Lynches and Yergins of the world to the proverbial dustbin of history, where they belong, and confirm, once again, that we PeakOil.com forum rats are right about everything.

(It's behind the WSJ paywall at the moment, but it will be easy to get, soon enough. Let's monitor the Energy Bulletin site, which will probably post the whole thing in a day or two.)

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')uly 16, 2007
New Reports See Long-Term High Oil Price

The International Energy Agency has issued a report that says oil demand will accelerate into 2008 while supply will not. Demand in China and other emerging markets will put a great deal of pressure on pricing. The agency indicated that if OPEC does not increase output near the end of 2007, oil supply could become extremely tight.

At almost the same time, the US oil industry is issuing a report entitled "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy." This report also points to demand in developing countries as the primary driver of rising oil rising oil prices. Figures collected for the document also suggest that need for new supply could rise almost 50% by 2030.

Although the case could be made that higher oil prices will mitigate demand, that would appear to be unlikely. Large markets, especially China, cannot keep GDP rising at recent rates without access to energy, and it may be that the government is willing to provide capital to make certain that there is no drop in oil supply for the country.

Consumers in the US are not likely to be as fortunate. Businesses and auto owners would feel the full force of rising oil prices, and the problem could cause long term problems without easy solution for large industries from airlines to automotive, shipping.

It is an ugly picture of the future that appears to get more likely with each passing year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

[skyemoor]

The bio I found for Douglas A. McIntyre at the same article referenced at the Huffington post reads;

"Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St., LLC. He has previously been the Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Financial World Magazine. He was also the first president of Switchboard.com when it was the 10th most visited website in the world, according to Media Metrix. He has been CEO of FutureSource, LLC and On2 Technologies, Inc. He has served on the board of directors of Vicinity Corporation, The Street.com, and Edgar Online. McIntyre is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard."

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', 'T')he bio I found for Douglas A. McIntyre at the same article referenced at the Huffington post reads;

"Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St., LLC. He has previously been the Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of Financial World Magazine. He was also the first president of Switchboard.com when it was the 10th most visited website in the world, according to Media Metrix. He has been CEO of FutureSource, LLC and On2 Technologies, Inc. He has served on the board of directors of Vicinity Corporation, The Street.com, and Edgar Online. McIntyre is a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard."

[xrotaryguy]

I wonder why oil corporations don't invest more in renewables. They have the money to invest and could possibly make a pretty sweet profit.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xrotaryguy', 'I') wonder why oil corporations don't invest more in renewables. They have the money to invest and could possibly make a pretty sweet profit.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xrotaryguy', 'I') wonder why oil corporations don't invest more in renewables. They have the money to invest and could possibly make a pretty sweet profit.

[TheDude]

Comments on WSJ story Peak-Oil Report to Disappoint Peak-Oiler[...] One had an interesting spin on the PO community:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he scaremongers have the stage for now, aided by hedge funds (long and leveraged to the tune of hundred of billions on oil futures), and “websites” which appear to be fronts for the hedge fund industry.

[xrotaryguy]

Am I missing something? Maybe I am. I'm not trying to be sarcastic. As I understand it, wind power has a EROI of about 20:1 and oil extracted from tar sands is nobetter than 5:1. Oil from the middle east is more like 20:1, but how long is that likely to last? It seems to me, if we really were about to suffer a financial collapse due to peak oil, that the energy companies would start investing in renewables now. Could it be that we're not actually that close to a PO induced financial collapse? Why else would the oil companies continue on like this.

[TheDude]

The big energy companies are the primary suppliers of renewables. BP now stands for "Beyond Petroleum," for instance. Duh...OK. Current EROEI on oil is 8:1, averaged out, IIRC. Wind is great and all but you can't power cars with it, which is the rub. Tar sands will be up to 3 million bbs/day in something like 2015, which will do nothing more than match declining Canadian production - while local consumption will have likely gone up anyway...

Those are some choice hard truths for y'all. Read A Letter to My Brother: Peak Oil in Greater Detail from the Oil Drum. Very readable and full of concise info, such as the quote I use in my sig here.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xrotaryguy', 'A')m I missing something? Maybe I am. I'm not trying to be sarcastic. As I understand it, wind power has a EROI of about 20:1 and oil extracted from tar sands is nobetter than 5:1. Oil from the middle east is more like 20:1, but how long is that likely to last? It seems to me, if we really were about to suffer a financial collapse due to peak oil, that the energy companies would start investing in renewables now. Could it be that we're not actually that close to a PO induced financial collapse? Why else would the oil companies continue on like this.

[xrotaryguy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'B')P now stands for "Beyond Petroleum," for instance. Duh...

[MC2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')ind is great and all but you can't power cars with it

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xrotaryguy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'B')P now stands for "Beyond Petroleum," for instance. Duh...