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PeakOil is You

Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby Roccland » Mon 16 Jul 2007, 21:34:06

While I did not build this:

Image

It is currently in boxes in my bunker. The AC water pump and solar panel are next weekend's project - then on to this.

But it is an refurbished car alternator and when I got it from ebay (around $600) I said...I could make this.

Here is the site:

Mikes Windmill Shop

The reason I bought this over all others is ZERO computer circuitry...so parts may be easier to come by.
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 16 Jul 2007, 21:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrownDog', 'I') have no personal experience with wind (not in a very good location)..


Well, see, that's the problem....you "could" build a wind generator from junk, but, what good would it do you?



We might be handy as all get-out, but if we don't have a good site for wind, it doesn't matter if we "can" build a generator....
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby americandream » Mon 16 Jul 2007, 21:51:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'E')h...I kind of liked the reply. I mean, no disrespect to the original poster.

Peak oil is a reality, no doubt. I am certainly not in denial. But, after visiting this site for years, the general vibe of the peak oil folks has gotten pretty tired.

The world is running out of oil, doom is upon us, we will all be eating cat food if we're lucky.... and that's where it stops. Nothing beyond that.

"Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic", "Will our future be like Mad Max, or worse?", "The end is nigh", "TSHTF very soon", "The Great Depression will look like a day at Disneyworld", "The sheeple will be the first to go"...

I mean, I must've read these posts and articles well over 400 times, and nothing changes. If you were to compare this forum four years ago to this forum now, there would be very little difference. I get the doom part, we all get the doom part, but what is the next step?


Meanwhile there really is a lot of interesting, progressive things going on with new sources of energy. There are people not just thinking, but actually creating some remarkable, realistic alternatives. I read Green Car Congress every day, and I'm just amazed at how fast things have progressed on this front in just 2-3 years. I know very well there is no magical overnight cure, and there is no seemless transition, but there is possibility. People are looking at the reality of peak oil, and saying "Ok, what do we need to do to meet this challenge?". It's as if everyday there is something new, while everyday here is more of the same. I mean, at the very least, I expect to see some gloating from those of us who have made some nice cash on our oil/energy holdings bought back in '04. :-D

Just my opinion.


Dude....your comments were valid till I got to the qualifier...don't you get it yet...there is fark all we can do and believing in transitions without blood and gore on the ground is kidding yourself.

We come in here to given vent to our frustrations at what we know is a truck bowling down the highway towards a precipice with no driver. If it weren't for this site, a few of us would go nuts!
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby Roccland » Mon 16 Jul 2007, 21:55:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'E')h...I kind of liked the reply. I mean, no disrespect to the original poster.

Peak oil is a reality, no doubt. I am certainly not in denial. But, after visiting this site for years, the general vibe of the peak oil folks has gotten pretty tired.

The world is running out of oil, doom is upon us, we will all be eating cat food if we're lucky.... and that's where it stops. Nothing beyond that.

"Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic", "Will our future be like Mad Max, or worse?", "The end is nigh", "TSHTF very soon", "The Great Depression will look like a day at Disneyworld", "The sheeple will be the first to go"...

I mean, I must've read these posts and articles well over 400 times, and nothing changes. If you were to compare this forum four years ago to this forum now, there would be very little difference. I get the doom part, we all get the doom part, but what is the next step?


Meanwhile there really is a lot of interesting, progressive things going on with new sources of energy. There are people not just thinking, but actually creating some remarkable, realistic alternatives. I read Green Car Congress every day, and I'm just amazed at how fast things have progressed on this front in just 2-3 years. I know very well there is no magical overnight cure, and there is no seemless transition, but there is possibility. People are looking at the reality of peak oil, and saying "Ok, what do we need to do to meet this challenge?". It's as if everyday there is something new, while everyday here is more of the same. I mean, at the very least, I expect to see some gloating from those of us who have made some nice cash on our oil/energy holdings bought back in '04. :-D

Just my opinion.


Dude....your comments were valid till I got to the qualifier...don't you get it yet...there is fark all we can do and believing in transitions without blood and gore on the ground is kidding yourself.

We come in here to given vent to our frustrations at what we know is a truck bowling down the highway towards a precipice with no driver. If it weren't for this site, a few of us would go nuts!


I already have...papers certified hanging on the wall in my study.
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 01:37:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'S')o who is deluded here, the populace that refuses to believe the oil won't be here someday, or the Doomers who insist it'll be gone tomorrow and we'll wind up eating cat food etc.?

Like thuja says there's a rainbow of shades of Doom. I like how the links at the Oil Drum to PO primers are laid out:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil Primers

* Wikipedia (Defcon 5)
* Energy Bulletin (Defcon 4)
* peakoil.com (Defcon 3)
* Robert Rapier (Defcon 3)
* Saintbryan (Defcon 2)
* James Kunstler (Defcon 1)
* Matt Savinar (Defcon 1)


Denial should be factored in with ignorance, too. Many people haven't connected all the dots, and there's a degree of variability due to the lack of firm evidence. I just finished Blood and Oil by Michael T. Klare, which is an excellent overview of the geopolitical aspect of oil and how nations go to great lengths to control it. He only mentions the possibility of PO arriving soon in a pair of sentences towards the end; but never fear, despite going by what the big agencies tell us he's convinced they'll never implement any of the production in time to meet rising demand anyway, reaching much the same doomy conclusions as the rest of us.

Hey Ludi, an aside here - I bought Gaia's Garden because the Mollison books are so pricey. How do you think they stack up - is G's G an acceptable substitute, or does Mollison cover ground that shouldn't be passed over no matter the cost?


I would say that human beings' greatest "blind spot" may be the inability to fully grasp trends that play out over several decades or more. This makes sense, because what evolutionary value would there be in the ability to see and understand long term trends when the average human life expectancy wasn't more than 40 or 50 years until recently. On the other hand, I think that one of human beings' greatest assets is the ability to come up with truly ingenious and clever solutions to problems when the problem is directly in front of them.

How will these strengths and weaknesses play out in PO? People will deny it until it is right in front of them, and then some of them will come up with very clever and ingenious solutions. The problem, of course, is that there may be too little time on the clock, even for great heroics. Minimally, however, I think that human ingenuity will blunt any rapid die off scenario.

What I fear is the toad in the pan of water scenario where the problem just gets incrementally worse and worse and no one really notices until it is WAY too late. We're kind of in that incremental deterioration situation right now: oil prices trending steadily upward, political stability in oil producing countries deteriorating, debt used to maintain illusion of economic growth, etc., etc., etc.

But I am really getting a kick out of the Saudis saying that there is plenty of oil, it's just refinery capacity that is keeping oil prices high. I've heard the upstream/downstream arguments that tight refining capacity makes oil more expensive, it just doesn't make sense to me.

For example, assume I have a pecan pie stand and everyone loves my pies and there is no substitute for my pies in the market and for some reason there is also inelasic demand for my pies. I decide to raise prices because I know that it won't dampen demand enough to keep me from selling all I can bake. When I am buying pie ingredients, it there are plenty of pecans for sale out there, the first pecan seller who tries to raise his prices on the theory that I am charging more for my pies is going to lose a customer. If there are truly plenty of pecans available, then no pecan seller should have any price leverage over a pie seller, just because pies are selling for higher prices, unless of course there is collusion among pecan sellers, in which case I can totally understand the price of pecans rising in a tight pie market.
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 02:40:06

So a co-worker this week said (out of the blue), "I don't think people have the survival skills that they use to. When the lights go out they will just give up and die."

"Good," I said without thinking. "Then they won't come to my house looking for handouts."


I am forced by my metaphysical convictions towards compassion. But then I have to listen to another co-worker (whom I'm listening to as I type) as they spew a long line of victimhood and entitlement and my compassion is a little less heartfelt.

Let the denial continue... right until the lights go out... preferably in December.
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Re: Peak Oil - the denial is unbelievable.

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 17 Jul 2007, 14:39:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')ey Ludi, an aside here - I bought Gaia's Garden because the Mollison books are so pricey. How do you think they stack up - is G's G an acceptable substitute, or does Mollison cover ground that shouldn't be passed over no matter the cost?



Personally, Mollison's "Permaculture: a designers manual" is the single most valuable book I've ever bought. "Gaia's Garden" just skims the surface and doesn't come close to providing the depth and breadth of information as the Mollison book, though it is a just fine introduction.
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