[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')OUSTON --
Though the United States is still the world's leading oil consumer, its might in the global petroleum business is dwindling.

Developing countries are locking up a bigger share of the world's oil and gas resources to profit from high prices and fuel industrial growth. Some experts view the shift as an emerging threat to the U.S. economy; others see benefits for consumers, saying an expanding suppliers' list diminishes the impact of any single disruption.

Still others see the shift simply as a reflection of globalization, whereby emerging economies lean on rising financial strength and technological know-how to become tougher competitors.

New research by investment bank Goldman Sachs suggests four countries in particular -- Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the so-called BRIC countries -- are grabbing the most market share from American companies. The BRIC's share of the industry's market value has grown from virtually nothing 15 years ago to more than one third today, while American companies' stake has dwindled from more than half to less than a third.

The biggest factor, most analysts agree, is the

[BigTex]

I think the U.S. oil companies' drilling and exploration technology will keep them in the game as long as there is a game to be played.

I think the pattern will be as follows: the foreign government will nationalize energy resources, kick the U.S. oil co. out, do its best to suck its oil out of the gorund as quickly as possible until production begins a serious decline. Then they will enter into joint ventures with the U.S. companies to come back in and assist them in recovering what's left of their poorly managed oil fields.

Maybe I'm giving U.S. companies too much credit for exploration and production expertise....the biggest problem for the U.S. oil companies is going to be getting enough petroleum engineers trained to get all of that hard to find oil out of the ground in the next 20 years or so.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') think the pattern will be as follows: the foreign government will nationalize energy resources, kick the U.S. oil co. out, do its best to suck its oil out of the gorund as quickly as possible until production begins a serious decline. Then they will enter into joint ventures with the U.S. companies to come back in and assist them in recovering what's left of their poorly managed oil fields.

[BigTex]

Nice post. Very informative.

[BigTex]

delete

[Kingcoal]

The only thing that Nickel didn't touch on is that more and more of the oil left is difficult to extract and/or of low quality. Venezuela is finding that while China has a lot of money and is a good customer, they don't have the technology and expertise to extract this kind of oil. For that, you have to look to the big oil companies, most of which are based in North America or Europe. Even in the Middle East, the local oil companies are generally manned by professionals from BP or some other western oil company. If Exxon, for example, had free reign in the Middle East, there would be maybe ten times the number of holes in the ground/water. The developing countries where most of the decent oil is left have a dismal record for exploiting their resources. Generally, they let western oil companies find the easy stuff, kick them out and just milk the existing wells. They’ve been able to do this because they have a lot of huge fields. If they were smart, they’d be investing in exploration and new drilling. Instead, they divert the proceeds from their existing wells into social programs, etc. While some might consider that noble, it’s stupid from a business standpoint and not sustainable as the wells peak. Chavez, for example, is destroying the oil business in Venezuela.

The big oil companies still have a bright future ahead of them. As for the rest of us...

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'T')he only thing that Nickel didn't touch on is that more and more of the oil left is difficult to extract and/or of low quality. Venezuela is finding that while China has a lot of money and is a good customer, they don't have the technology and expertise to extract this kind of oil. For that, you have to look to the big oil companies, most of which are based in North America or Europe.... The big oil companies still have a bright future ahead of them.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '.')..
It also impacts the US dollar, because right now, what’s principally keeping it alive and kicking is that it’s the only currency you can use to buy oil in that open market. That means everyone who has to buy oil in it has to have US dollars, which increase the demand, which means they have to sell goods to the US to get them… at whatever the US is willing to pay. It’s not that the US is so much more fantastically productive than the rest of us or better managed, it’s just that it has the monopoly on ‘Oil Coupons’...

[XOVERX]

The Chinese paradigm -- nation to nation oil contracts -- is exactly what the US must move to immediately.

Unfortunately, the US is so tied to the economics of capitalism (which works very well in most instances) that it is doubtful that it will turn to direct national contracts in time to avoid a serious oil contraction in the fairly near future. Say, one to three years.

One of the results of capitalism is to exploit resources as quickly as possible when prices are considered to be "high". With the depletable resources, such as oil, such accelerated usage is a huge problem to sustainability instead of leading to a desirable outcome. Except as to profits.

And so the US must increasingly turn to overt warfare if it is to secure oil supplies. Not unlike the Japanese prior to WW2 when the US elected to use oil supplies as negotiating "leverage" with the Japanese.

If there is any chance to think our way out of the probable nightmare of PO, then the world must stop the unsustainable patterns of wasted oil and gas usage.

Put another way, it is time for the great car culture of America to come to a screeching halt. At least insofar as such vehicles operate via hydrocarbon combustion.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XOVERX', 'T')he Chinese paradigm -- nation to nation oil contracts -- is exactly what the US must move to immediately.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') never did like the "petro-dollar" theory.

[Kingcoal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'T')he only thing that Nickel didn't touch on is that more and more of the oil left is difficult to extract and/or of low quality. Venezuela is finding that while China has a lot of money and is a good customer, they don't have the technology and expertise to extract this kind of oil. For that, you have to look to the big oil companies, most of which are based in North America or Europe.... The big oil companies still have a bright future ahead of them.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'S')orry if I offended you, but you just can't put together an oil company out of inexperienced people

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'S')orry if I offended you, but you just can't put together an oil company out of inexperienced people

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')f building intellectual infrastructure were as easy as getting out the checkbook, China's commitment to put a man on the moon in like 20 or 30 years would be something they could do in one or two years: just hire everyone away from NASA and pay them whatever it took.

[TheDude]

What does Hugo plan to do now that he's kicked out all the foreign companies? Maybe outsource all of his talent from, I don't know, China? Could work it into a trade deal. "Brains for barrels." Assuming the Chinese do have some experience extracting and refining heavy oil.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')f building intellectual infrastructure were as easy as getting out the checkbook, China's commitment to put a man on the moon in like 20 or 30 years would be something they could do in one or two years: just hire everyone away from NASA and pay them whatever it took.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')hat does Hugo plan to do now that he's kicked out all the foreign companies? Maybe outsource all of his talent from, I don't know, China? Could work it into a trade deal. "Brains for barrels." Assuming the Chinese do have some experience extracting and refining heavy oil.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'i')t's just that for whatever reason the big integrated oil companies have historically proven to be better at discovering and extracting oil than the national oil companies.