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Peak Oil & Mass Migration

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 00:55:47

Now I scanned 3 pages about mass migration and saw lots of stuff but not much about migration.

If you are starving where you sit what do you do?

I’d think either go and find a place to make a living or die in place.

Contrary to the general consensus here, I believe most folks won’t choose the latter.

See:
Easter Islanders canoeing to some told of better land.
Potato famine Irish stowing away.
Okies Gone To Texas.
Your parents.
You.

Just my simplemindedness I guess…
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 00:58:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')What are you doubting? That PO won't cause a depression? That a depression doesn't cause unemployment? That an unemployed person wouldn't spend as much energy as an employed one? That a bankrupt business won't use as much (or at all) energy as an operating one?


If you think that, then I suggest you read a bit more of what I have written.

What I doubt is that this depression will somehow allow industrial civilization to keep on rolling, as you seem to assume.

Most of the industrialized world is not fresh from peasantry and the fields like China.

If the machine ever stops running, it's over.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ithin a period of time which is very short compared with the total span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be exhausted. This loss will make man completely dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and solar energy for driving his machines.

There are no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society will be able to make the change smoothly.

But it is a transition that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human species...if machine civilization should, because of some catastrophe, stop functioning, it will probably never again come into existence.” Harrison Brown -1954
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 01:03:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'N')ow I scanned 3 pages about mass migration and saw lots of stuff but not much about migration.

If you are starving where you sit what do you do?

I’d think either go and find a place to make a living or die in place.

Contrary to the general consensus here, I believe most folks won’t choose the latter.


Yes, between global climate change and peak oil, I think we will see a mass migration to where the jobs and energy resides and where the food is easily grown.

Hydroelectric dams and wind farms may be the new location for many.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 01:17:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f the machine ever stops running, it's over.

hey! I think a lug nut just fell off? And there's a loose hose that is spraying steam all over the place. We need duct tape.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 02:30:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'N')ow I scanned 3 pages about mass migration and saw lots of stuff but not much about migration.

If you are starving where you sit what do you do?

I’d think either go and find a place to make a living or die in place.

Contrary to the general consensus here, I believe most folks won’t choose the latter.

See:
Easter Islanders canoeing to some told of better land.
Potato famine Irish stowing away.
Okies Gone To Texas.
Your parents.
You.

Just my simplemindedness I guess…


During each of those previous migrations there was hope of a better place just over the horizen. During the middle two workers were actually recruited to come to the new place.

also I thought the Easter Islanders died right where they were?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 03:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'D')uring each of those previous migrations there was hope of a better place just over the horizen.

I don’t know Cur, if you were starving would not anywhere else look better?

If you were starving wouldn’t any offer look good?

As to the islanders, I think Diamond said in Collapse they tried to get to other islands but there wasn’t much there. I stand to be corrected.

If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence when there is plenty of grass on your side, why wouldn’t you hop the fence when your grass is dead?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 03:41:33

So the outstanding question would be "where will it look like there is grass? In the countryside where so many city folk came from (never to return except to visit elderly relatives and then flee again ASAP) or in the cities which (may) be getting food deliveries? Down south with a longer growing season or up north farther away from Spanish speaking refugees (to whom the USA will definitely look like greener pastures) but the heating season is longer?

I guess I do not deny that people will look for greener pastures but how far can you get when you have no idea where you are going and every place has problems. Perhaps we will not hear about the problems elsewhere so people will try. But without a functioning economy to absorb the influx people will, at best, be turned away.

Faced with uncertainty my guess would be that people will try to make things work where ever they are for as long as they can and by the time they realize they can't make it, well it will be too late.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 13:37:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'C')onsider yourself lucky if you get a tent! The Prophet Duncan forecasts the return of the caveman....I don't think they had tents. Maybe some animal hide they hung on sticks?

Who's this "Prophet Duncan" I keep hearing so much about? :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f the machine ever stops running, it's over.

What a lie. Even if we all go cavemen, it will still be possible to re-start industrial civilization because there are plenty of fossil fuels left. If there aren't, then we can assume that we used The Other Side Of the Curve for something, and it hell woulnd't be powering SUVs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'h')ey! I think a lug nut just fell off? And there's a loose hose that is spraying steam all over the place. We need duct tape.

Yes, because your steam engine is powering SUVs and and lighting for American Idol instead of a lug nut factory. :roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pops', 'I')f you are starving where you sit what do you do?

I cannot speak for the United States, but I can speak for Canada. It would be much simpler for any government to set up basic rations for the unemployed, rather than let them loose on the cities or on the countryside. People will move (or be forced to move) where there is employment, and initially, it will be the creation of rail lines between cities and cities and farmland. Or we can recruit a lot of people for the police, there will be a lot of need for law enforcement.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 18:04:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'I') cannot speak for the United States, but I can speak for Canada. It would be much simpler for any government to set up basic rations for the unemployed, rather than let them loose on the cities

Glad you hear yopu speak for the taxpayers of Canada. Where exactly do you think the government gets all that easy money?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'O')r we can recruit a lot of people for the police

Same question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'i')t will be the creation of rail lines between cities and cities and farmland.

Same question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'P')eople will move (or be forced to move) where there is employment,

There ya go.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 19:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'I') cannot speak for the United States, but I can speak for Canada. It would be much simpler for any government to set up basic rations for the unemployed, rather than let them loose on the cities

Glad you hear yopu speak for the taxpayers of Canada. Where exactly do you think the government gets all that easy money?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'O')r we can recruit a lot of people for the police

Same question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'i')t will be the creation of rail lines between cities and cities and farmland.

Same question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', 'P')eople will move (or be forced to move) where there is employment,

There ya go.
Oil revenue, grain export, taxes and printing...

This is, however, a very silly question, because if the government has half a brain it will institute a command economy.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 20:52:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'C')onsider yourself lucky if you get a tent! The Prophet Duncan forecasts the return of the caveman....I don't think they had tents. Maybe some animal hide they hung on sticks?

Who's this "Prophet Duncan" I keep hearing so much about? :-D



Dr Richard Duncan, predicted the reduction of mankind to caveman hood...like....a year ago. Plus economic depression....like....back in 1999 or something. He is a Prophet in the Church of Doom. A seer.

Did you toss me that slow pitch just to see if I knew who the Prophet Duncan was? :-D
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby Pops » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 21:42:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '.').if the government ...

Oh, I see where you are coming from.

I take back my earlier assertion no one would sit there and wait.

I stand corrected.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 12 Jul 2007, 00:39:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')f the machine ever stops running, it's over.

What a lie. Even if we all go cavemen, it will still be possible to re-start industrial civilization because there are plenty of fossil fuels left. If there aren't, then we can assume that we used The Other Side Of the Curve for something, and it hell woulnd't be powering SUVs.


Sure there'll be a little oil left, if you have a functioning well and a functioning refinery next to it. Or nearby, doesn't make much difference. Refineries use a hell of a lot of electricity, too. They both require upkeep, and technicians to keep them running as well.

If you're pinning your hopes on tar and corn, great. We'll see how far that gets us. Better luck with nukes and electric cars. Or just powering down.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby Alphonse » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 14:01:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SoothSayer', 'W')ill poor 3rd world peasants STILL want to migrate into energy deficient UK, France, Germany etc?


Australia said it will re-think a large boost to immigration as the global financial crisis buffets the economy and places a brake against years of strong growth. The 2008-09 Migration Program is set at 190,300 places, representing a 19.8 per cent increase on the 2007-08 program. But that's now been criticised as excessively large in a period of economic turmoil.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1223651987/0

Mr. Zapatero has spent the past four years making immigrants, who now comprise one-tenth of Spain's population, feel at home. This month, he began to offer another option: He would pay them a year's benefits, in cash, if they went back home for at least three years. The problem is that the crisis is global -- a fact well known to immigrants. "Most Ecuadoreans realize that if things are bad in Spain, they will be worse at home."

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet ... ry/?query=
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