[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don35', 'p')eripato wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ex.

[eXpat]

Interesting little article "Can The U.S.A. Survive Even 5 More Years?" link
I'm still pondering about it, but if it is true, the consequences are going to be very nasty indeed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')rown’s math suggests that world oil exports will drop by 50 percent within the next five years, certainly enough to trigger a systemic breakdown in market allocation, meaning serious supply shortages among the importing nations.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'I')nteresting little article "Can The U.S.A. Survive Even 5 More Years?" link
I'm still pondering about it, but if it is true, the consequences are going to be very nasty indeed.

[evilgenius]

If Boone Pickens is right and the world is never going to produce any more oil per day than now, yes, it makes sense. The US is hoping that they will be able to pay their way to the top. The people there believe in the kind of power that money has where even the French troops fleeing Moscow in winter could find food, for a price.

There will still be export depletion, however. In the same way that those that adhere to radical ideology win out often enough to sometimes stump culture oil will find its way to those for whom it is in an exporting countries national interest to supply. National interest is a lot like religion.

When you think about it the story sounds like the tale that is being told of hedge funds that buy assets with nine times or more leveraged debt. In good times the funds soar. In bad times they are the first to go. The big fish let them go. The fund's very bankruptcy enables the survival of the big fish.

[denverdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'B')ut that's what you did last time, and boy - was that ever a f*ck up. Making sure that didn't happen this time around was supposed to be an integral part of the plan - i.e. America will stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to ensure a stable/peaceful regime (forever? until the oil is gone? who knows?). If the troops are brought home one nanosecond before this has been established, then America has reneged on the deal - would it care? Doubt it. Would the rest of the world care? Yep. Would that matter? Probably not. :/ If America did pull out early, you can be damned sure they'd never see a drop of that oil. No, I think you guys are stuck now.

[evilgenius]

What would leaviing the troops after Desert Storm have done that supporting the Shia uprising in Basra wouldn't have? Neither action would have allowed for Saudi Arabia (regional swing producer) to access Iraq's oil. A way had to be found to rid the West of Saddam while at the same time at least pleasing, if not empowering Saudi Arabia. Backing a Shia proxy was not the answer. Neither was backing a Sunni proxy because the Sunnis would remain loyal to Saddam as long as he lived. It had to be done the way that it has, with seeming total incompetence.

There will be action taken to place the Sunnis in power. My guess is there will be a Sunni military coup. Whatever happens it will come soon, right after the troops leave.

Yeah, and right after that the troops will be going back. Next time it really will be for all the marbles. Next time everything the 'insurgents' have learned about penetrating armor and how the US likes to move supplies and troops will come into play. Next time the world will find out just what sort of stalemate exists in theater confrontations due to the extent of ready technology on the battlefield. Next time the US will find out just what happens when you fire all of the real military minds at the Pentagon and replace them with yes men.

[Revi]

Back to the 12-18 months before TSHTF, what kind of a scenario do people see happening, and how will it affect us? I see a slow burn out of the economy caused by the housing bubble popping, and people not using their houses as ATMs, therefore not buying much of anything. The price of gas makes people stop driving around so much (not necessarily a bad thing), and the economy goes into a recession. The price of oil may not go up too much higher if the economy slows, and demand meets supply again. We all try to muddle through, but it gets harder and harder to live a "normal" life as the cost of everything climbs.

By next summer it will be obvious to everyone that the economy is slowing down, and the winter of 2008/09 is really hard for most nothern states, because heating oil and gas becomes almost unaffordable for the poor.

That's all I see happening for now. What do you think?

[marko]

This 12-18 months to SHTF scenario is based on the premise that we are already post-peak. I'm just not convinced that we are. We may be, we may not be, the numbers are not conclusive.

However, I agree that the economy is looking sick, that 2008 may be a hard year and 2009-2010 almost certainly will be. Economic recovery is likely to be weak if it comes at all, because peak will come by 2015 if not sooner (if it hasn't come already). If the economic disaster is mostly limited to the Western Hemisphere, then oil prices may bring a cold winter in 2008-2009. But if it is worldwide, we can expect a drop in global demand sharper than any drop in supply and lower real prices for fuel, at least for a short time.

I do not think that SHTF is clearly in sight yet. I agree that mass-tourism destinations, such as the Balearic Islands, the Canaries, or Cancun are likely to be the first places hit by the effects of the peak passing. Though there, too, it will be hard to distinguish the effects of post-peak from those of post-bubble.

[Permanently_Baffled]

What puzzles me is that we are 2 years post peak (maybe), oil is $77 a barrel and yet there seems to more budget airlines than ever making shed loads of cash!!

I would of said the airline industry would of been the first to be seriously imploding by now? ( I realise this situation maybe different in the US, but there are budget airlines all over the place here in Europe offering very affordable and sometimes outrageously cheap flights!!!)

Why the disconnect? What price is it going to take to screw these operations?

[eXpat]

My humble 2 cents Revi, I would say that the system carries enough momentum to keeps things stable till end of 2008, sure, the prices of almost everything wil go steadely up, bankruptcies will grow, as well as the amount of personal debt (mainly in the US and UK), there will be more efforts towards conservation of energy, but in general will be business as usual.
After 2008 though something will snap, maybe another Enron, or a big hedge fund gone wrong, who knows? you will have a week or two of an international market crisis to remember all your life, and then just when you think that things cannot get worst, some country will announce with grand fanfare that is dumping the dollar...
You can imagine the rest.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'W')hat puzzles me is that we are 2 years post peak (maybe), oil is $77 a barrel and yet there seems to more budget airlines than ever making shed loads of cash!! I would of said the airline industry would of been the first to be seriously imploding by now? ( I realise this situation maybe different in the US, but there are budget airlines all over the place here in Europe offering very affordable and sometimes outrageously cheap flights!!!) Why the disconnect? What price is it going to take to screw these operations?

[evilgenius]

Right now I think that the powers in America are hoping that the autumn will bring a bit of relief. There is considerable pressure to reveal what the truth is concerning the Saudi reserve situation. If the confidence in Saudi Arabia goes away the relative calmness in the markets goes as well, all things being equal. For now interest rates will be rising (mostly because of bond market action, but the Fed could add to it) and housing will be encouraged to slow down.

What they seek is enough time to bring 2008's projects online. Bringing those online will create a sinking peak (a sinking peak being what happens when the calculable peak actually moves outward due to new discoveries although the realities imposed by having passed into post-peak status reign). In this way the 1st world can sustain its lifestyle for a longer time (at the expense of the third world) and the wealthy can continue to form the organizations that they reckon can survive the shakeout.

I don't see a mad scramble to implement anything that will work for the general suffrage, however. Nothing is being done to localize because it works against the desires of the rich to form conglomerates. Conglomerates meant survival during the Great Depression and they are what is being built now.

Even now with the right investment local packages of individual solar and wind generating systems could be put into the distribution system at reduced or subsidized cost. These packages could heat a single room come winter or run a small refrigerator or freezer and two or three light bulbs. Neighborhoods or streets could share somewhat larger systems and meet collective need by means of rotation. Insulation retrofit packages could be distributed in like fashion. Maybe some of this is happening in some places, but government is not communicating the urgency and it is not cutting through the financial confusion.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'N')o Shep, We are looking exactly like we most likely would if peak was in 2004/05. Everything is happening exactly as the theory said it would.

[Jellric]

Most predictions occur years later than they were initially predicted for. Someone should write a book on the history of predictions and how they actually panned out.

[DantesPeak]

At the time US oil production peaked in the early 1970s, almost no one thought it was the final peak for the US. Alaska oil had already been discovered, and due to various environmental and other concerns, it took a while to get production on the North Slope going. Meanwhile it was just expected that US production would increase and eventually exceed prior levels – even though at the same time Texas had already removed all controls on production levels. (BTW – guess where OPEC got the idea to control oil production levels.)

The US never again reached its previous peak production levels, and it took years after the fact before it was widely acknowledged we were past peak.

I expect the same this time for worldwide production. I have been saying since 2005 we have past peak light sweet crude, but there doesn’t seem to be much acknowledgment of that outside of PO circles. If biofuels were excluded from world oil production figures, it looks like we are on a plateau worldwide at best.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'M')y humble 2 cents Revi, After 2008 though something will snap, maybe another Enron, or a big hedge fund gone wrong, who knows? you will have a week or two of an international market crisis to remember all your life, and then just when you think that things cannot get worst, some country will announce with grand fanfare that is dumping the dollar... .

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'M')y humble 2 cents Revi, I would say that the system carries enough momentum to keeps things stable till end of 2008, sure, the prices of almost everything wil go steadely up, bankruptcies will grow, as well as the amount of personal debt (mainly in the US and UK), there will be more efforts towards conservation of energy, but in general will be business as usual.
After 2008 though something will snap, maybe another Enron, or a big hedge fund gone wrong, who knows? you will have a week or two of an international market crisis to remember all your life, and then just when you think that things cannot get worst, some country will announce with grand fanfare that is dumping the dollar...You can imagine the rest.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'N')o Shep, We are looking exactly like we most likely would if peak was in 2004/05. Everything is happening exactly as the theory said it would. Watch oil pass $80 this fall with a little hurricane peak in tothe 85 mark before pulling back in othe fall. Then the winter spike and then next summer we get to taste $4 per gallon. But under this undulating feeling is a depleting oil supply. Once that starts to accelerate into the 6% per year range all the major armies of the world will be heading toward the Middle East, albeit possibly on horseback.