[TheDude]

I believe the future will be more Canticle For Lebowitz than Always Going Home. More Threads than Children of Men. In a hard crash it isn't hard to do the math - look around you and wonder what you're going to do, no fuel, no electricity. Multiply by your local population. Doubt there'll be time to install Telescreens for every Outer Party resident of Airstrip One.

Whether TPTB will still have their intact gated strongholds with electricity and other comforts remains to be seen. At least the Bushes will have that monster aquifer in Paraguay. They're Planning For the Future. Possibly the remaining Haves will fence off a US state or two and hold on to what they have. Texas has always been at war with California!

I don't doubt that the political machinations Orwell wrote of could still be implemented in a society that holds on to some of its authority and energy - the Two Minutes Hate and perpetual war.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ') The day those supply lines and energy flows reach certain tipping points, TPTB won't even be able to answer the phones let alone engage in massive Orwellian command and control schemes. In other words, the future is more likely to be a low-energy, chaotic dystopia like "The Road Warrior" than a high-energy, fascist dystopia like "1984".

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Monte, AS long as BAU continues, the police state tactics will increase. . . But Blackwater, Dyncorp, and the NSA are as dependent on the 3,000 mile supply lines as Wal-Mart.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Monte, AS long as BAU continues, the police state tactics will increase. . . But Blackwater, Dyncorp, and the NSA are as dependent on the 3,000 mile supply lines as Wal-Mart.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Monte, AS long as BAU continues, the police state tactics will increase. . . But Blackwater, Dyncorp, and the NSA are as dependent on the 3,000 mile supply lines as Wal-Mart.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he future will be more akin to Mad Max than George Orwell

[BlisteredWhippet]

You're forgetting the militas and national guard. For instance, such localized paramilitary commanded much of colonial America's need for fascist police state controls. The Army needs its 3000 mile supply lines for fighting organized conflict 3000 miles away.

But, for instance, it draws on a localized network of military and Guard bases across the country. In my town, for instance, a state capital, there is a National guard armory situated a half mile from the legislative building, and multiple military bases within 100 miles. In an hour, the governor could summon 100,000 (thats hundred thousand) Neo-Nazi Rangers to do their bidding... with bradleys, A-10s, F-22s, etc. The supply line is shorter than one might think.

Who controls SPR? Who has a parallel supply line capacity, who has the organizational structure to adapt and react to changing situations? I think you underestimate the capabilities of the military.

In any kind of post-apoc. scenario, the military will have a huge advantage, even autonomous units, in part due to command and control. Its ability to telegraph force at extreme distances might be diminished, but its capabilities in North America, the continental US, in particular, will not be diminished.

As for the main bases of command and their power needs, small scale nuclear generation, when they figure out it is needed, will be implemented. The policy of nuclearization and the end of oil has been a part of official military planning since the end of WWII. To that end, much of the Navy uses nuclear fuel.

In my capital, there was an armed uprising after a series of general strikes by unionists and "communists" in the 10s and 20s, precipitating the establishment of the Guard Armory. Today it mainly serves as a training platform, but its fortress-facade conceals a very real cache of weapons and ammo.

So I really don't understand why you are suggesting that an organization, with a history and current experience establishing and maintaining supply lines, isn't going to be viable when precisely those skills are required in the future.

Throughout history, whenever the military required something- food, shelter, fuel, ammo, it simply seized it. The mechanisms exist for a sustainable military. Even at the expense of the larger society or economy. If Mad Max is the future, having a gun and a rank is going to be the possible employment.

There are no real counterforces against military power. Americans like to think that their small arms and Eagle Scout skills will somehow keep the military from taking over. I think that is patently ridiculous. 3/4 will hand over their young men, weapons and resources without question. The rest will be annihilated, their weapons pried from their cold, dead fingers.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') cannot help but find those words (“degeneracy of our government”) somehow very prophetic

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', ' ')Put another way: it's not that I see "no" ability. I see a "continually diminshing ability."

[Tricks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'N')o matter what most of us are doomed, or children, or grandchildren. An elite group of wealthy individuals might keep going for awhile, but even they will have to give up their addicition to oil someday. Maybe by then that moon base will be built. In the long run, hunting and gathering is probably where we are headed. I think farming may be doomed...all it did was increase population.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'T')here are no real counterforces against military power. Americans like to think that their small arms and Eagle Scout skills will somehow keep the military from taking over. I think that is patently ridiculous. 3/4 will hand over their young men, weapons and resources without question. The rest will be annihilated, their weapons pried from their cold, dead fingers.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'W')ho controls SPR? Who has a parallel supply line capacity, who has the organizational structure to adapt and react to changing situations? I think you underestimate the capabilities of the military.

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'B')ut, for instance, it draws on a localized network of military and Guard bases across the country. In my town, for instance, a state capital, there is a National guard armory situated a half mile from the legislative building, and multiple military bases within 100 miles. In an hour, the governor could summon 100,000 (thats hundred thousand) Neo-Nazi Rangers to do their bidding... with bradleys, A-10s, F-22s, etc. The supply line is shorter than one might think.

[BlisteredWhippet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'W')ho controls SPR? Who has a parallel supply line capacity, who has the organizational structure to adapt and react to changing situations? I think you underestimate the capabilities of the military.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

I personally think this is the most interesting question regarding PO, the future of the military.
I'm torn between the two arguements, I'm sure the military will be the last thing standing, I just can't see them bothering with anything not vital to them. I see gated areas and 'green zones', much like Iraq today.

[kevincarter]

Really interesting thread.
My point is, you can’t change economical factors in any given society and expect that society to remain almost the same. PO will affect economy at large, so large changes are coming ahead.
IMO first thing to worry about is the existence of an everlasting enemy.
You don’t need much energy to keep a tyranny going, just ID cards, check points, secret police, purges, travel permissions and the like.

There is in fact a guy that has been screaming to the wind for years, Alex Jones, he says that there is a plan to merge the police and the military to turn the US into a police state. He says the army is already training to control Americans, going to small towns and rehearsing the take over local powers. The tactics are to get hold of the police station first and the official buildings next, then get as many collaborative youth as possible gathered up, put them in white t-shirts and make them take their bicycles and mark the houses that have guns in town, then go house by house making searches and taking the guns, arrest those who resist etc, they rehearse all that with volunteers. He has a good documentary about it, I'll try to put the link if I find it. He even tells the case when they did one of those rehearsals in a small town without warning the local police, two soldiers tried to disarm the sheriff and he kill them both, he didn’t know it was a drill. Apparently its a true story.

In this rehearsals/drills they use paid actors so that the army gets used to hear things like "what are you doing we are Americans" "you can't arrest me" "you can't take my guns" etc... Quite scary shit.
Edited to add link police state 2000, Alex Jones

[gg3]

Sabibay (sp?), "nade," interesting, I've never heard that one before (from friends who are in right now); when were you in? (I'm going to guess mid 1980s.)
TheDude: "Mad Mel" heehee, that's good...
Aaron: I had no idea NSA's power shortage was so bad that they're having internal revolving blackouts. Oh boy does that suck, you don't want those guys, or any part of our national defense, to be blacked out. Those are the conditions that hostile foreign powers just love to take advantage of. Fort Meade needs a nuclear plant, a pebble bed modular reactor would be perfect, and would jump-start private investment in same for civilian utilities. BTW they don't get their heavy iron from China.
---
About the military.
For at least the last seven years, there has been ongoing debate among both commissioned officers and enlisted ranks, about the following:
"What would you do if the part of your oath about obeying the C-in-C came into conflict with the part about defending the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic?"
The implicit message here is, the Deserter In Chief and Five-Deferment Dick don't respect the Constitution. And the informal empirical results so far are that about 30 - 40% of uniformed military would defend the Constitution, another third or so would defend the Regime, and the rest would either choose in the moment or try to sit it out.
The implication I take from that is, a substantial portion of our uniformed military will stand with the citizens and against a rogue regime. And thus the 2nd Amendment becomes relevant: that 30-40% of the military, plus the citizens, add up to enough to effectively deter or defeat a tyrannical regime.

And let's not forget the lessons of Iraq either; that even a disorganized and decentralized insurgency can win a defensive war on its home turf.
This is not to say that scary cases, such as those "training exercises" involving taking over American towns, should be downplayed. I should go look up the reports &c on that subject and do some reading. And clearly there is a need for countermeasures of whatever kind, because something of that sort is clearly illegal as hell and so the elevant question isn't "whether" but "how" to oppose it and stop it.
---
The entire picture changes if our Constitutional republic breaks down or splinters into quasi-independent territories.
---
These kinds of scenarios are why I keep emphasizing that it's so darn important to teach people to revere the Constitution, respect the law, and prefer a peaceful and orderly society to one where it's every "man" for "him"self.
A nation of laws not of men, is highly syntropic (negentropic, counter-entropic if you will) and as such it takes much hard work to build, maintain, and defend, and fairly little effort to degrade and destroy. You do not want to live in a world where the courtroom is replaced by the dueling ground or the ducking stool. We have already seen what happens when a small number of people in the White House have contempt for the Constitution and the law, and we shall soon see them turned out of office via the next election or via impeachment. But cleaning up the damage they've done will take years if not decades, and meanwhile other shit will be hitting the fan.

It's usually thought of as cool or hip to talk about secession and the breakdown of the republic, but you really do not want to go there. You don not want to be separated from your family by state borders much as Germans were and Koreans still are. You do not want to wake up in the middle of the night wondering if pressing the Send button on your last bad mood might be enough to put you in front of a firing squad or in chains in a slave brigade.
I promise you this, and you can take it to the bank: If the republic breaks and the Constitution is no longer the law of the land, you will regret the day it happened until the day you die.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'I')t's usually thought of as cool or hip to talk about secession and the breakdown of the republic, but you really do not want to go there. You don not want to be separated from your family by state borders much as Germans were and Koreans still are. You do not want to wake up in the middle of the night wondering if pressing the Send button on your last bad mood might be enough to put you in front of a firing squad or in chains in a slave brigade.
I promise you this, and you can take it to the bank: If the republic breaks and the Constitution is no longer the law of the land, you will regret the day it happened until the day you die.

[basil_hayden]

The future will be more like the movie Brazil, where the Buttles pay for what Tuttle was up to.

Brazil movie

The tubes, hoses, wires and ducts everywhere in that movie are so cool.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'T')he future will be more like the movie Brazil, where the Buttles pay for what Tuttle was up to.
Brazil movie
The tubes, hoses, wires and ducts everywhere in that movie are so cool.