by DrBang » Fri 15 Jun 2007, 05:36:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am interested in hearing more about the overlap solutions
We are on the cusp of a huge change in how we do things. At the moment, we daily consume products from a wide network. Things are made in remote locations and are then transported very cheaply long distances. We depend on a network of people and services that spans the globe. The very idea that things can be produced locally is seen as a little bizarre. The things we buy or consume are often based on whim, not what we actually need. This is the era of the corporation (where corporations call the shots, taking the place of elected governments), where we are en masse manipulated into giving lots of money to people we don’t personally know for crap we don’t really need to impress people we don’t really like. In a nutshell, the following DVD’s are excellent in describing how and why this happens:
“The Corporation”
Discusses how the current financial and administrative circumstances arose and bit on to what end we are manipulated into consumerism.
“
Status Anxiety”
Discusses why we feel the need to consume in the search for that elusive happiness. Why is it that we are so susceptible to manipulation?
“Outfoxed” and
“Weapons of Mass Deception”
Discusses how we are manipulated into making the decisions that we do.
The system that is in place now is based on the illusion of responsible and ethical actions of institutions of authority. The idea that our respective governments and their subsidiaries like the military, act in our best interests, as opposed to big business is how and why we re-elect them. The whole thing has been geared so the big end of town can make as much money as possible. Political countries have been and will continue to interact at the diplomatic/military level, not only out of survival based self interest, but on behalf of large companies, which are global and know no political boundaries. The whole system is based on really tight margins, where a relatively small change has huge consequences (say a factory can’t meet its KPI’s because their raw materials arrived a day late, which then can’t make its contract, etc..).
All of this is going to come apart. We can argue over the details of what form this will take and in what time frame. Nevertheless, our current system of finance, manufacturing of goods and delivery of services is going to radically change. The delicate house of cards we place literally everything on can be brought down by any number of crises.
As fate would have it we have 3 huge issues on the horizon and are closing fast. They are converging in a way that they will arrive in the same 2-5 year window. They are:
Peak Oil
Climate Change
Bird Flu Pandemic
Useful (but draconian) response solutions to deal with these issues dynamically interact and overlap. They do this economically and socially. All responses are based on things happening beyond our current control.
Peak Oil As is documented very well on this site, our ability to live off oil/fossil fuels is about to change. Anything that requires oil for its manufacture or transport is about to become uneconomic to sell let alone buy.
We will be forced into scaling back our demand to stuff we absolutely need, with the full knowledge that majority of people are not going to get close to that (with all the knock on consequences). At the moment, the trend is to scale up operations and use economies of scale and sheer brute force to do business from few locations, that out source to a wide area (I work in mining and see how heavy industry works now and how it would like to work tomorrow). This will be forced to change.
We will start manufacturing things on a small local scale, where transport is minimal. Or we will go without. Its as simple as that. Our quality of life will not include such extraordinary waste. Each action we take will be examined carefully to ensure its efficiency. Every person will be required to step up and be responsible for more of what they individually need. We will help grow our own food, collect our own water, make our own furniture and repair our own clothes.
Oil will simply not be available. This will affect everything that needs it.
An interesting possible solution to help us over this time is actually coal. We have lots of coal left. Not enough as a real solution, it will also peak like oil a few years later. What it can do is buy us time. A coal fired power station is dirty and smelly. Environmentalists don’t like them due to pollution issues (fair comment). It does mean we can continue to generate electricity to keep us going in the short term. We could then in a war footing build and deploy infrastructure to bypass the oil issue. Start putting into place some of these alternative fuel ideas (there are tech problems, but at the moment we are not looking at them very seriously). A public run network of transport for people and freight. This will take lots of money and resources to do and time. It will require time where we still have access to power generation. Once we have made a bit of progress on the transport network, we can then return to replacing the power stations themselves. This scenario will require a) foresight and leadership on the part of our respective governments and b) a slow grind down off the peak. If we get a sudden thud, then this was a nice idea but won’t fly. This scenario is asking a lot I know.
Financially things will change. The cost of doing business across the board will hit an economic discontinuity. Massive change in a short time frame. Things will be taken past their breaking point. Big business will no longer function in the way they do now. Products they make money off will now become far too expensive to sell. Their reason to be starts to break down. Large companies and banks will start to turn on each other in much the same fashion they did during the great depression. We will no longer be dependant on other ‘distant’ groups. We will be forced to start doing things our selves and trade with people close by. The law will become less relevant. No one will care a hoot about wether big business will survive or not.
Socially things will also change. At the moment we function on the family unit, which can be broken down easily to the individual. Most people don’t know their neighbours. When the all of this hits, we will be forced into groups of families banding together to survive. A suburban street might get together and everyone works on something. Kind of like a village construct. A family trying to do it on their own are going to do it a lot tougher. That group of families will become very tight knit. Things that happen in the next state or in our countries all of a sudden become irrelevant. The government will be forced to step in and take charge regarding how these suburban villages/towns/cities interact or become irrelevant.
Pretending its not our problem and someone else will fix it is not good enough. Hoping it will all go away is also not good enough. Life will be defined more by what is needed rather than what it will cost. The time frame for this is hotly debated but consensus is it will become a noticeable issue in a results on the ground way in the next 0-5 years.
Climate Change In Australia, we are just starting to feel the consequences of climate change. Volatile extreme weather and the resulting consequences of trying to get stuff done is now being seen in real time. Again we can argue the point but its now being felt.
Drinking water supplies are now no longer adequate. We have similar amounts of rain, but it doesn’t fall in dam catchments any more. Also, we have larger storms where more water hits the ground in short bursts, which cause flooding and general infrastructure damage (I am a volunteer at the local emergency response group). This has seriously affected our agriculture and ability to grow our own food. This is also only a warm up.
The response to this will be:
Phase out oil and coal and gas out of wide spread use (say restrict it to making plastics only). This will in turn directly affect agriculture (which is oil dependant), power generation (for us Aussies coal fired power stations), mining and manufacturing. Develop agriculture that doesn’t need as much oil or water. Find an alternative practical power solution for electricity generation. Find an alternative to transport goods (Australia runs on trucks) between major cities.
Food and goods manufacture will now have to be done locally on a smaller scale by more people. Because climate change is bringing lots of storms that wreak havoc in our facilities grid (power, sewerage, water, etc), we will have to have a system that is less vulnerable. Lots of built in redundancies. Perhaps each suburb will become more self sufficient and do all of this stuff, only to be supplemented over the grid.
All this is going to cost though and we won’t do it willingly. Peak oil may just force us to do these things a lot quicker.
Financially supply of goods and services will become unreliable. Power outages and breakdowns will be common place. The cost of putting in alternative infrastructure will be colossal. The government will be forced to step in and take charge or become irrelevant.
Socially we all must assist in a complete overhaul in our infrastructure. Pretending its not our problem and someone else will fix it is not good enough. Hoping it will all go away is also not good enough.
Again, life will be defined more by what is needed rather than what it will cost. Again, the time frame for this is being hotly debated along with the concept itself. That being said, we are seeing the first set of consequences now. The really big ones are 2-5 years away.
Bird Flu Pandemic I am a member of the local emergency services volunteer group (every town is Australia has an SES unit). One of the things we have been briefed on is the Australian Federal response to a possible outbreak of bird flu. Part of this briefing was an emergency services personnel education what we learned from the 2004 boxing day Tsunami in Indonesia and Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. Many things seen were not released to the public. It was a real eye opener in regard to what people do when they are put in a life threatening situation. I saw many things discussed on this forum actually being reported as happening (as opposed to possible scenarios and debate there in). Most of it was what was the response after the event. How do we clean up the mess left behind? How do we help the local community get back on its feet? This really scared the crap out of me. Especially the part of our limitations to what can be done with the facilities we have right now. How quickly things break down into an improvised triage system.
According to microbiologists, a lethal pandemic is inevitable. It’s not a case of if but when and where first. Bird flu was flagged as a possible candidate, based on what it might mutate into. At the moment its small scale stuff. 292 cases of sickness have been reported, resulting in 172 deaths. Symptoms are low level flu and cold like for a couple of days. After 5-6 days the victim feels they should be in a hospital. Day 7-8 they are dead. That is, it is contagious and hard to diagnose for 5-6 days, then it ramps up real quick. Stats at the moment suggest that of all those who get sick, 70% will die. They are quoting its probable that as much as 35-40% of our population will be casualties.
This bug is really tough and takes a lot to kill off. Our immune system is not really kitted out to fight it at this time. At the moment it is mostly contained in SE Asia is related to poultry interacting with wild birds. It has however jumped species to cats.
What they are worried about is this thing breaking out of the containment areas. Consensus is that we are 5 and half years over due for a breakout. Conditions are right this winter (summer for northern hemisphere) for a breakout. If we don’t get one this season, then next year is even more probable. Consensus is within 3 years it will breakout of SE Asia. When this happens it could spread very quickly all around the world.
The only thing comparable in living memory is the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. A study of the mechanism and social response of the generations of Europeans dealing with the Black Plague seems to be appropriate.
Our response is simple. When the flu is diagnosed, the whole area is then quarantined. Areas of Australia will be then quarantined separately. Essential services like communications will be placed in isolation lockdown separate from the rest of the populations. Our objective is to slow the spread of the flu for a few days. This will give the people developing the vaccine precious time. If a vaccine can be found (its unknown if the ones we have now will have any effect), it can be mass produced (a relative term to be sure). Essential services the hold us together with get the vaccine first. After that, it will be a triage based priority in distribution.
Financially business will essentially stop. It is believed something like 50% of emergency staff will not report to work once an outbreak happens. This will cause chaos and hamstring our possible response. Most people will quarantine themselves for a while. This means that that vast network we all depend on to live will suspend itself for a time. Getting hold of goods and services is going to be a dangerous joke until the all clear is sounded.
Socially we will simply stop and hide (after a bit of panic). “When in doubt, run about, wave your arms and scream and shout” will be the general procedure.
The similarities to Peak Oil and Climate Change are as follows:
• The vast network of people and services will break down.
• Goods and services will not be so reliable or affordable.
• Built in redundancy of support systems and services will be needed.
• We will interact very differently on a social level.
• The impact on our society will be colossal.
The possible response to Bird Flu dovetails nicely with what is required for Peak Oil and Climate Change issues. Whether we have the fore sight or time to actually do all this remains to be seen.
Summary
None of this is going to be voluntary or pleasant. We have had 60 years of relative stability. We as a whole are much wealthier than previous generations. Ask the opinion of anyone who survived WWII (especially someone who lived in Europe at the time). They often respond to me in terms of “you are all soft in the head and do not appreciate or understand the life you now have”. Our unhealthy love affair with our need to spend vast amounts of money on crap is about to be beaten out of us. We are about to be given a harsh lesson on what really matters.
Us humans have been through this sort of thing before. I can recommend the following books if anyone is interested:
“Collapse, how civilisations choose to survive or fail” Jared Diamond, 2005
“The Collapse of Ancient States and Civilisations” Norman Yoffee & George Cowgill 1998
“The Collapse of Complex Societies” Joseph Tainter, 1988
The long and short of it is this. The times coming are going to be harder than anything in living memory. Some very bad times are going to go down. That being said, there will come a point when things stabilise. Then who ever is left picks up the pieces and it all starts once more. The question will be, will those who are left learn anything? Will they act accordingly? I believe we have it in us to get past this as a civilisation but we must evolve or be left behind.
!!! As a minor niggle, ![[smilie=profe.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/profe.gif "profe")
please use the search function to check for:
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![[smilie=love4.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/love4.gif "love4")
techno-cornucopia land ![[smilie=dark1.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/dark1.gif "dark1")
, the markets ![[smilie=3some.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/3some.gif "3some")
, and exponentialism ![[smilie=iamwithstupid.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/iamwithstupid.gif "iamwithstupid")
will save us.
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pill ![[smilie=glasses7.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/glasses7.gif "glasses7")
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humanity can ignorantly shove itself.
![[smilie=director.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/director.gif "director")
Now choose!
