Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Airline industry "experts" in total denial

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby patrick_b » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 15:17:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'W')ell, the ariline industry wants to cut fuel consumption per km by half to 2020.


That gonna be hard... Except solar panels on the wings to add small electric engines there is not much to do...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'A')nd there are 2.4 billion potential Indian and Chinese tourists.


They'll remain potential.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'T')he Peakoilers claim that higher oil prices would have to mean that economic growth disappears.
Oil prices increased from less than 20 to more than 60 $ in the last few years, and global economic growth is now stronger than before.


Well the problem is that economic growth does not necessarily means more cars, more powerful cars, etc... It can also mean a better quality of life, less transportation and so on...

But also the economy is now in recession... The miserable growth rates in the west don't even compensate the inflation, meaning we're in recession. Also the small artificial growth measured is the result of huge expansions of credit, which means more debt, more foreclosures, more bankruptcies... The stock market is currently booming because of inflation, just like before the crisis of the 1930's...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'I') think, as long as there's economic growth, there will be growing numbers of passengers to be transported.


With which fuel ?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', '.')..and at higher prices, energy effiency will be increased while the energy intensity of our economies falls sharply.


This is true to some point, but energy efficiency usually means more costs, more labor intensive production...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'A')irlines and governments seem to think the same.


This does not prove they're right. Airlines are run by managers and governements by politicians. They're not the kind of persons who know a lot about technical stuff.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'I') doubt the government just wants to keep the construction industry grwoing by building a few airports. They could do that better ih they'd subsidies building new efficient homes for millions of Britons...


The time they'll notice these bad investments will be already made...
User avatar
patrick_b
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon 11 Jun 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby rsch20 » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 15:24:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.

everyone seems to be referring to Omnitir with this and the replies to it, yet he joined in 2005 and has over 800 posts...

Really? So 25 is the same as 800? Hello?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'B')y 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.

How can we, or anybody else, possibly take him seriously when he spouts nonsense like that?


25 is not the same as 800, which I think was my point, hello?

'new poster' is also not the same as 'joined in 2005'. hello?

His statement about the energy crisis is a valid one. I don't share his optimism but his thesis is his opinion based on available evidence. If you disagree with him then show data that contradicts his assertion (exponential growth in solar technology) rather than just calling it nonsense.



3rensho, good point about Moore's Law, I use the
Law of Accelerating Returns in it's place whenever I can although Moore's Law is more commonly known, have any comment on the validity of the Law of Accelerating Returns?
User avatar
rsch20
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 275
Joined: Mon 26 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby peripato » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', 'F')ailure to recognize this means that solutions are just solutions in isolation, and are guaranteed to make matters worse by extending the size of the economy, and the number of people that are supported by it.


Why would any solution extend the size of the economy, or the number of people supported by it? The way I see it, if you propose to substitute A by B, because B is sustainable and A isn't, it wouldn't have to extend anything.

Technofixes simply cause the symptoms of the growth malaise to be dealt rather than the underlying cause itself which is perpetual growth. Meanwhile the economy, the infrastructure being supported and the population that is dependent on it would continue to keep increasing.
User avatar
peripato
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1335
Joined: Tue 03 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Reality
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'H')is statement about the energy crisis is a valid one. I don't share his optimism but his thesis is his opinion based on available evidence. If you disagree with him then show data that contradicts his assertion (exponential growth in solar technology) rather than just calling it nonsense.

No, you have it backwards. The burden is on him to show us how solar power is going to replace the oil, gas, and coal that fuels all those power plants, and the various liquid fuels that power the billion or so cars, trucks, buses, aircraft, trains, motorcycles, ships, boats, agricultural equipment, construction equipment, and electrical generators that are running today.

If he'll start talking seriously, we'll take him seriously.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
User avatar
Zardoz
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6323
Joined: Fri 02 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 20:30:42

rsch20, do you know what happened to the recent liquid fuels thread? I can't seem to find it. Has it been deleted? Because I posted a response to Aaron about how solar power will provide all of our energy needs within 25 years, and now the thread is no show.

Is this what Zardoz means by being taken seriously? When someone shows that the energy crisis is a short term problem the argument gets deleted? Surely not.

Zardoz, solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends, which amazingly, people on this site still appear to lack.

Solar production has been growing at 33% per year for the past decade, as is expected to continue this trend for the foreseeable future. This is pure exponential growth:
Image

As long as solar production can keep on it's current development, it will meet ALL of civilizations energy demands within 25 years.

The trend my slow because of resource depletion, or world war, or any other reason. But if it doesn't slow, this is the future.



And my argument about Moore's Law wasn't that it had anything to do with solar power. It was that we are seeing the same kind of trend in solar as we did in microprocessors. It's a layman's way of explaining the law of accelerating returns.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Omnitir wrote:
By 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.


How can we, or anybody else, possibly take him seriously when he spouts nonsense like that?

And yet you and most others here are perfectly happy to assume that it's a given that society will have collapsed in a few short years. How is my saying that the energy crisis will be solved by 2025 any worse than your saying that there won't be any airlines by 2025? So the burden is on me to explain my claims while you can get away with any prediction about future collapse without backing it up?
Last edited by Omnitir on Tue 12 Jun 2007, 20:38:00, edited 1 time in total.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
User avatar
Omnitir
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 894
Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Down Under
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Valdemar » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 20:35:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'r')sch20, do you know what happened to the recent liquid fuels thread? I can't seem to find it. Has it been deleted?

Because I posted a response to Aaron about how solar power will provide all of our energy needs within 25 years, and now the thread is no show.

Is this what Zardoz means by being taken seriously? When someone shows that the energy crisis is a short term problem the argument gets deleted? Surely not.

Zardoz, solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends, which amazingly, people on this site still appear to lack.

And my argument about Moore's Law wasn't that it had anything to do with solar power. It was that we are seeing the same kind of trend in solar as we did in microprocessors. It's a layman's way of explaining the law of accelerating returns.


Because a current trend is guaranteed to carry on indefinitely at the same pace in the future, amirite?

Certainly solar power companies are immune to the laws of economics too, so any recession or depression (which is coming with or without PO anyway) won't harm such ventures, I'm sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')And yet you and most others here are perfectly happy to assume that it's a given that society will have collapsed in a few short years. How is my saying that the energy crisis will be solved by 2025 any worse than your saying that there won't be any airlines by 2025? So the burden is on me to explain my claims while you can get away with any prediction about future collapse without backing it up?


Because we happen to have a nice precedent set here for the direction we're proposing, whereas you seem to stick to wishful thinking, assuming solar is going to magically solve our energy crisis despite the huge amounts you'd need just to replace what we're losing today. Did I mention the infrastructure upgrades and costs to the consumer as well?

You don't see to grasp the situation well at all. I can quite easily say nuclear will trump your solar (and it would too), but I don't, because building 10,000 fourth gen. pebble-beds by 2025 is about as realistic as every family on Earth being solar sufficient to the point of having their home AND transport vehicle covered. It's bad enough assuming today, in an age of economic prosperity, that this would happen. During an economic upheaval with a permanent energy crisis? Hysterical. I suppose PV cells and EVs will be $10 each by this point.
"Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
-Pinbacker, Sunshine
User avatar
Valdemar
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 356
Joined: Wed 28 Mar 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Cambs., UK
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby TheTurtle » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 20:53:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'r')sch20, do you know what happened to the recent liquid fuels thread? I can't seem to find it. Has it been deleted? Because I posted a response to Aaron about how solar power will provide all of our energy needs within 25 years, and now the thread is no show.

Is this what Zardoz means by being taken seriously? When someone shows that the energy crisis is a short term problem the argument gets deleted? Surely not.


It looks to me that your thread was merged with the "We're Saved! Water for fuel?" thread in the Open forum, which looks to have been started before yours, but covering the same topic.

So it hasn't been deleted. :)
Last edited by TheTurtle on Tue 12 Jun 2007, 21:06:05, edited 1 time in total.
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
User avatar
TheTurtle
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1905
Joined: Sat 14 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 21:01:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'r')sch20, do you know what happened to the recent liquid fuels thread? I can't seem to find it. Has it been deleted?

Because I posted a response to Aaron about how solar power will provide all of our energy needs within 25 years, and now the thread is no show.

Is this what Zardoz means by being taken seriously? When someone shows that the energy crisis is a short term problem the argument gets deleted? Surely not.

Zardoz, solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends, which amazingly, people on this site still appear to lack.

And my argument about Moore's Law wasn't that it had anything to do with solar power. It was that we are seeing the same kind of trend in solar as we did in microprocessors. It's a layman's way of explaining the law of accelerating returns.


Because a current trend is guaranteed to carry on indefinitely at the same pace in the future, amirite?

Certainly solar power companies are immune to the laws of economics too, so any recession or depression (which is coming with or without PO anyway) won't harm such ventures, I'm sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')And yet you and most others here are perfectly happy to assume that it's a given that society will have collapsed in a few short years. How is my saying that the energy crisis will be solved by 2025 any worse than your saying that there won't be any airlines by 2025? So the burden is on me to explain my claims while you can get away with any prediction about future collapse without backing it up?


Because we happen to have a nice precedent set here for the direction we're proposing, whereas you seem to stick to wishful thinking, assuming solar is going to magically solve our energy crisis despite the huge amounts you'd need just to replace what we're losing today. Did I mention the infrastructure upgrades and costs to the consumer as well?

You don't see to grasp the situation well at all. I can quite easily say nuclear will trump your solar (and it would too), but I don't, because building 10,000 fourth gen. pebble-beds by 2025 is about as realistic as every family on Earth being solar sufficient to the point of having their home AND transport vehicle covered. It's bad enough assuming today, in an age of economic prosperity, that this would happen. During an economic upheaval with a permanent energy crisis? Hysterical. I suppose PV cells and EVs will be $10 each by this point.

Firstly, please go back to my previous post as I was editing it to explain exponential growth in solar while you posted your response.

Regarding economics and technology ventures, I think you have a lack of understanding here of accelerating technology. It's not about a specific venture, it's a general trend. And based on the historical evidence, do a large and very real degree, yes, technological acceleration is actually immune to economic downturns (within reason). Take a look at the technological progress that occurred during the twentieth century. Even despite the Great Depression and two world wars, technological progress actually continued relatively smoothly throughout these periods. Mass unemployment, mass poverty and starvation, massive refocusing of industry to stop the Axis of Evil, and through all that, technology marched forwards without so much as a pause.

You can argue that this progress was entirely reliant on oil and therefore progress will slow post PO - and there will be little I can say to counter such an argument. Perhaps this position is entirely accurate. However, based on the historic performance of technological growth, it appears unlikely (to me) that anything less than the total collapse of the industrialised world will halt technological progress. And I will point out that peak oil is often argued as "the long emergency", just as die off is generally argued to be a gradual process occurring over many decades. And all we need for solar (along with other technologies to solve other issues) to become advanced enough to solve the energy crisis, is less than two decades of progress.

Is the developed world really going to completely collapse within two decades? This seems highly unlikely. Civilizations typically take hundreds of years to collapse, and we have oh so much "fat" in the system to chew through before we are even in real trouble.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
User avatar
Omnitir
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 894
Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Down Under
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 21:03:55

I haven't bee reading this thread and I don't know if this has been posted before but it's on subject:

I think it was on CNN's "We Were Warned", which aired again recently with more PO content than the original version, that Richard Branson, CEO of Virgin Atlantic Airlines said that he had been growing increasingly concerned about high fuel costs, a business-buster for any airline.

Branson was of course concernd about present fuel costs but much more concerned about the forecasted costs going out just a few years. As he gave his interview, the crow's feet at the sides of his eyes seemed to reflect that this was indeed a deeply worried man who understood some hard realities about the very near future. He appeared to be a sincere CEO committed to protecting his beloved company's future.

He said that had identified present fuel shortages as resulting from a lack of crude oil refining capacity and so he set himself the task of developing a brand new refinery that would specifically cater to Virgin as well as operate profitably as an independent business.

However, he was soon acosted by the likes of Al Gore and others who, he said, drove home the point very clearly that greenhouse gases caused by the burning of hydrocarbons were causing the globe to warm at an alarmingly quick rate. They talked him out of his refinery project and convinced him the biofuels were the way to go - or ,at least, the best alternative.

The camera then showed scenes of vast fields of rape or whatever with Branson standing in the foreground implying that Branson was now embarked on growing crops to power his airline.

Does this not seem utterly ridiculous to everyone here? It seemed to me that Branson, a very sincere person, was being used in some sort of deep energy politics game.

I think it's been mentioned before that "Global Warming" can often be used as code for "Peak Oil"and I think Gore is a master at doing this. I'm not intending to disparage GW science here - just remarking that it also has the utility that allows politicians to avoid mentioning the dreaded PO phrase.
Carlhole
 
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Judgie » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 22:34:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3rensho', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', '
')Yes Moore's law and cpu clock speeds, hmmmm........... clockspeeds of silicon based cpu, hit a brick wall 2 years ago (remember Intel saying backl in 2000 that we'd have 10ghz Pentium 4's as early as 2005?: http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/0,1000 ... 090,00.htm) with the last of the Pentium 4 series, at 3.8ghz. Now we have multiple lower-power core on chip processors, with clock speeds scaled back to 2ghz up to 2.6 in the mere-mortal range. 3ghz is only available now to people willing to spend $1000+ on a cpu.


The problem with this? most commonly used applications do not successfully scale beyond a single thread due to their very nature OR do not require more than one. However, I do enjoy running more than one app at a time :). That's where multi-core shines.


Not to derail this any further, but Moore's Law talks about transistor counts, not clock speeds and is still holding. For how long is anyone's guess however.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oore's Law is the empirical observation made in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 months.


You have incorrectly equated clock speed to computing power, a common layman mistake. Likewise you have some similar layman's views on multi-core and computer architecture in general that are essentially incorrect.

This book would be a good place to start if this topic is of your interest:

Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach
By John L. Hennessy and David A. Patterson

Having taught the subject for a few years I am used to seeing Moore's Law misinterpreted or misused in areas where it has no application. Clock speeds is a common misinterpretation and to be clear, I do not mean anything in my post as an insult towards you.


No not at all :)

I'll put the book on the to-read list.
Judgie
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon 07 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 22:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '.')..solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends...

Easy to double such a small quantity at the moment. You know perfectly well that this rate of increase is not going to continue.

Are you seriously suggesting that we're going to have solar-powered aircraft, ships, trucks, and cars by 2025? You really think that all those coal, oil, and gas-fired power plants are going to be replaced by solar sources? You do realize how much electrical generating capacity we're talking about, don't you?

Read this summary of a white paper by the International Solar Energy Society:

http://www.ises.org/shortcut.nsf/to/wp

Not one word about using solar power for transportation. Absolutely nothing about it replacing our precious liquid fuels. Sure, solar will grow in importance more and more. We'll be bathing in solar-heated water, and keeping the lights on, to a limited extent, with solar-charged storage systems.

Great. That'll help maintain some vestiges of civilization. However, any suggestion that solar power will somehow solve our transportation dilemma, or even come close to powering the electrical grid like it is now, is just silly.

__________________________________________

By the way, this isn't my quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Z')ardoz wrote:

And yet you and most others here are perfectly happy to assume that it's a given that society will have collapsed in a few short years. How is my saying that the energy crisis will be solved by 2025 any worse than your saying that there won't be any airlines by 2025? So the burden is on me to explain my claims while you can get away with any prediction about future collapse without backing it up?
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
User avatar
Zardoz
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6323
Joined: Fri 02 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Omnitir » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 23:02:24

Opps, not sure what happened there. Bit of an editing problem. I meant to reply to this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'B')y 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.

How can we, or anybody else, possibly take him seriously when he spouts nonsense like that?

And yet you and most others here are perfectly happy to assume that it's a given that society will have collapsed in a few short years. How is my saying that the energy crisis will be solved by 2025 any worse than your saying that there won't be any airlines by 2025? So the burden is on me to explain my claims while you can get away with any prediction about future collapse without backing it up?
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
User avatar
Omnitir
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 894
Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Down Under
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Doly » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 10:36:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Because by 2025 we will all be doing our air travel in our private flying cars. Though pockets of the airline industry will remain as they are reinvented as a holiday destination - to Earth orbit.

Sound ridiculous? About as ridiculous that PO will destroy ALL airlines within 18 years. By 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.


Because the magic of an exponential trend is going to solve it? That's the weakest argument I've ever seen, as I explained in a previous post.

I have done some number-crunching on the issue, and other people have done much more serious number-crunching.

And, to cut a long story short, the results are:

IF we are very careful and start managing things properly, we can stabilize the situation... and still, there's no way to avoid a serious energy crisis and the biggest economic crash in history, that is guaranteed to lead to a complete re-think of economics.

If not, we are heading for a major crisis. I wouldn't say "collapse", because I'm pretty sure we have so much slack in the developed world, that reducing by 50% our consumption we would still be perfectly OK. But it will certainly be very unpleasant times to live. Avoid any area where crime is rife already, because it will get a hell of a lot worse.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby rsch20 » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 13:45:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')Because the magic of an exponential trend is going to solve it? That's the weakest argument I've ever seen, as I explained in a previous post.


Here it is for reference

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'A')s somebody who studied maths at college, I have a lot to say about exponential trends.

The most important thing to know about exponential trends, and I wish people got this one right, both doomers and optimists, is that nothing, nothing, NOTHING ever stays in an exponential trend for very long. For the obvious reason that they grow so quickly.

Whenever you see a graph that seems to approximate an exponential trend, you shouldn't continue it and calculate that in a few years you will get a gazillion of whatever-it-is. You should say: "This is a sign that we have no clue what happens next."

Unless you happen to know something more about the underlying factors that are causing a seemingly exponential trend, and then, you use your knowledge to make a better, non-exponential, approximation.


I agree with you, exponential trends end. However, how about evaluting this exponential trend, and letting me know when you think it will end.

It's the exponential trend of exponential trends, and it's been exponential for a VERY LONG TIME, i.e. since the universe was created.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... stones.jpg

edit, sorry, embedded picture was too big, use the link instead.
User avatar
rsch20
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 275
Joined: Mon 26 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 14:08:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Z')ardoz, solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends, which amazingly, people on this site still appear to lack.

How much instantaneous generating capacity (in GW) is added in 2030 assuming that rate of growth remains constant?

The article you linked, claims 600 MW total in 2003.

In 2031, it would be 1.9 TW.

In 2030, 500 GW would go online.

PV? Think that's possible? :roll:

You can't keep doubling anything physical for very long without running into constraints. Your basic understanding of exponential growth is exactly that - basic. You do not progress beyond simple extrapolation, make no attempt to observe limits in action, or introduce them into your model. You mis-apply the concept. Your approach is not fit for purpose, not even for a simple case.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Omnitir » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 21:04:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Z')ardoz, solar power is doubling about every 2 years. It doesn't take any serious debate to predict the outcome of this, just a basic understanding of exponential trends, which amazingly, people on this site still appear to lack.

How much instantaneous generating capacity (in GW) is added in 2030 assuming that rate of growth remains constant?

The article you linked, claims 600 MW total in 2003.

In 2031, it would be 1.9 TW.

In 2030, 500 GW would go online.

PV? Think that's possible? :roll:

You can't keep doubling anything physical for very long without running into constraints. Your basic understanding of exponential growth is exactly that - basic. You do not progress beyond simple extrapolation, make no attempt to observe limits in action, or introduce them into your model. You mis-apply the concept. Your approach is not fit for purpose, not even for a simple case.

In today's world it would seem impossible, and I understand why one would think merely asking if it's possible and posting the rolling eyes emoticon is enough argument to counter the concept.

But one must visualise what the would would be like if we actually made it that far. If we actually made it to the late 2020's and had solved PO, than doubling the installed PV based would be easy. We are talking about an age where molecular fabrication technologies would allow "printing" physical objects from home, like we do today with paper printers, only these printers assemble objects at the molecular level, so not only would it be easy to produce a large number of PV's world wide, it would be easy to make the PV's far more effective than toady.

2030, and someone breaks a window in their home. So they go online and purchase a new window, download it, and hit print it. The nano-factory begins placing carbon molecules in the patented pattern of some company, which half and hour later results in a new perfectly transparent glass window, that captures enough sunlight to power a light bulb in the home for a day. The energy that the window captures, along with the energy the rest of the home captures, is stored in a locally to power the entire home and its vehicles, all through the power of the sun, and all produced without any external energy or resource input, apart from the simple raw elements used in the molecular nano-factory.

So yes, it's quite easy to imagine that if we get to 2030 with this technology than 500GW could go online in a single year.

Though as I agreed earlier, this is a single exponential trend, and exponential trends don't stay exponential forever. They do however, get replaced by other exponential trends, which has been happening smoothly not only since the beginning of the industrial age, or even since the beginning of human technology, but since the beginning of the universe. Peak oil has an impressive task ahead if it is to break this trend, which to date has been a universal constant.

Of course I fully expect all this to sound far too high-tech and "science-fictony" for anyone immersed in oil-apocalypse to be able to accept. But then, even Bill Gates couldn't envision the microprocessor revolution 25 years ago. Most people today don't have a chance of accepting the high tech future that could await us, least of all a group of anti-modern peaknics. But that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
User avatar
Omnitir
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 894
Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Down Under
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Judgie » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 22:50:53

Transmission distance and land area needed for 500GW is the problem. Then again, if you are willing to accept a worldwide population below current levels (say 1 - 1.5 billion, with population control measures in place) then we may not even require that. IF we make it through peak oil, it is possible. Just be prepared to set population growth aside.

Personally, i'd like to see the flexible solar panels that are currently in development taken one step further, and turned into a fibre suitable for sails, tarpualins and tents. Regarding sails, it should preferably have near or the same characteristics as the kevlar-aramid sails that have been around for nearly a decade now. Of course, if it could be integrated with Dacron, that would be just as good.

Regarding the molecular printer, you can procure one of the early ancestors of these, if you have a spare US $50,000 to set aside.

Here:
http://www.zcorp.com/

I have a nagging suspiscion though, that we would see the introduction of a "content" for want of a better word, licensing system, like your Microsoft Vista licence, whereby you do not actually own the window, you merely have a licence to print the window for so many window frames, or for your home only, etc. Furthermore, it could be revoked at any time and the windows removed. Window piracy anyone?, for those who do not wish to pay full price?. Actually, I think corporate window design and licensing could be a very lucrative business sector, especially if architecture continues as is, with glass facade's as it's darling. Anyone care to join me? :lol:
Judgie
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon 07 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Omnitir » Fri 15 Jun 2007, 05:30:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', 'T')ransmission distance and land area needed for 500GW is the problem. Then again, if you are willing to accept a worldwide population below current levels (say 1 - 1.5 billion, with population control measures in place) then we may not even require that. IF we make it through peak oil, it is possible. Just be prepared to set population growth aside.

Personally, i'd like to see the flexible solar panels that are currently in development taken one step further, and turned into a fibre suitable for sails, tarpualins and tents. Regarding sails, it should preferably have near or the same characteristics as the kevlar-aramid sails that have been around for nearly a decade now. Of course, if it could be integrated with Dacron, that would be just as good.

Regarding the molecular printer, you can procure one of the early ancestors of these, if you have a spare US $50,000 to set aside.

Here:
http://www.zcorp.com/

I have a nagging suspiscion though, that we would see the introduction of a "content" for want of a better word, licensing system, like your Microsoft Vista licence, whereby you do not actually own the window, you merely have a licence to print the window for so many window frames, or for your home only, etc. Furthermore, it could be revoked at any time and the windows removed. Window piracy anyone?, for those who do not wish to pay full price?. Actually, I think corporate window design and licensing could be a very lucrative business sector, especially if architecture continues as is, with glass facade's as it's darling. Anyone care to join me? :lol:

I have a friend that is working on a similar technology to the zcorp CAD printer only for a major player in the printing industry and printing, well, 'other' things that one wouldn't normally imagine as something you print. Can't really elaborate because of NDA, but it's pretty astonishing what's possible already. Given another couple of decades it would really be revolutionary stuff.

Even given all the hassles of licensing, which we know from software and music/movie downloads are a read nightmare, this technology just has so many advantages over traditional manufacturing. Just think of all the different stages involved in producing a sheet of glass today, from mining and refining raw materials, processing refined products into the end products, all the transportation at different stages - all that is eliminated by simply doing the whole lot locally. It's the ultimate in conservation, and if you could do it for all material goods, you would revolutionise the world by achieving the utmost in sustainability. Economic growth would no longer be based on what we can take from the Earth and dump back into it. Economic growth would be based on virtual growth, since the manufacture of all goods would be an information technology. Compared to today, you would basically have the capability for true unlimited economic growth. Assuming the population could stabilize of course.

To me, such a system sounds far more attractive than the current system, even if this system would enforce strict and dodgy "fair use" licensing systems. I'd rather have to pay for the right to print each glass window I wanted and consume in a totally sustainable way, than actually own the window that the natural environment paid for. Especially when you go from printing glass windows, to complex machines like cars and computers (or even food for that matter).

And regarding transmission distance - that would not be a problem with such technology because every system would be localised. Most energy consumed in a household would also be generated in that household, and likewise for every other sector. With the increase in cost performance of energy generation and storage, comes an increase in decentralized power generation. If such technology comes to be, I don't see why there would be much need for power transmission (apart from perhaps short distances, which could be done wirelessly by then).
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
User avatar
Omnitir
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 894
Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Down Under
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Boris555 » Fri 15 Jun 2007, 11:16:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('malcomatic_51', '
')Boris555, what is this miracle fuel that is going to spare the airline industry? Hydrogen? Ethanol? Rubber bands? Yup, rubber bands it is - and you can do the winding, laddy.
.


I'll make a bet with any of you.

Let's find out the number of major aircraft flying today (40+ passengers) and then when 2025 rolls around, lets find out the number of major aircraft flying.

In 2025 I'll give you $5 per aircraft for each one LESS than is flying today.

OR

You give me $5 per aircraft for each one MORE than is flying today.

And I live on a farm, so if your scenarios come true and everything collapses, I WILL still be around for you to collect. Just be sure to give me a way to identify you so I don't blow your head off like I will have to with all you other city folk trying to steal my crops, water, solar panels, etc. If it all collapses, I'll even give you the equivalent value in supplies if you want since money will be worthless.

If I'm right and things don't collapse, your welshing ass better be around for me to collect from. I plan on using that money for a good time in Vegas.

I doubt any of you have the balls to put your money where your mouth is.
User avatar
Boris555
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 83
Joined: Wed 01 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Airline industry "experts" in total denial

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 15 Jun 2007, 14:26:38

Let me know when they can print inverters up to transmission scale.

You are going to have to match that growth in every other connected area. There are enough to make it a challenge.

I guess I will know the revolution has arrived when I am paid to partake in building one. Not quite on the horizon just yet. But hey, maybe the secret proposal for a commercial size unit will be on my desk on Monday. Life may have a surprise in store yet.

If it has a chance of happening, I will know about it, years in advance.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests