Cycles of History
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web site of Marlowe C. Embree, Ph.D Psychology, University of Wisconsin', 'S')trauss and Howe (whose ideas are, admittedly, controversial: see the note at the end of this Web page) begin with the observation that a wide range of sociological, psychological, and economic variables -- from crime rates to attitudes about gender to vocational patterns -- are well correlated and track in tandem, in a generally predictable, cyclic fashion (see the figure below, where X = time, Y = some empirical variable of interest)...
They note that just as a human life traditionally has four "seasons" each lasting about 20-22 years -- the "spring" of childhood, the "summer" of young adulthood, the "autumn" of midlife, and the "winter" of elderhood -- so, too, can the cultural saeculum be divided in this way. The parallel is that just as humans are born, live, and die, so eras or epochs in history (the saecula) have a natural life span: they are bounded by (begin with, and end with) a time of crisis, chaos, external threat (such as a major war), or ekpyrosis. At the end of each saeculum, the culture must, in a sense, die and be reborn -- or fail to be reborn, as when an entire civilization ceases to exist. The transformation in a society engendered by moving from one saeculum to another is so dramatic, so radical, so much of a "quantum leap" change that one might say that the society is born into a "new world". (Hence, Americans still use the phrase "postwar" to refer to the contemporary era or saeculum, even though World War II took place nearly sixty years ago.)
As a nation, America has experienced three such ekpyroses or saecular crises: the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Great Depression and World War II. If Strauss and Howe are right, we are due for yet another one -- the end of the current saeculum -- somewhere around the year 2025. This is, of course, a testable hypothesis, so it will be interesting to see whether or not they are correct; if alive, I will only be 70, and hopefully capable of reflecting on the concept.
It's going to be an energy/resources/overpopulation thing this time around.
Don't worry that you won't make it to your 60's or 70's. Just remember the immortal words of The Rolling Stones - "What a drag it is getting old".