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Peak everything

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Peak everything

Unread postby Leanan » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 13:52:26

Earth's natural wealth: an audit

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') "I get excited every time I see a street cleaner," says Hazel Prichard. It's what they collect in their sacks that gets her juices flowing, because the grime and litter they sweep up off the streets is laced with traces of platinum, one of the world's rarest and most expensive metals. The catalytic converters that keep exhaust pollutants from cars, trucks and buses down to an acceptable level all use platinum, and over the years it is slowly but steadily lost through these vehicles' exhaust pipes. Prichard, a geologist at the University of Cardiff in the UK, reckons that tonnes of the stuff is being sprayed out onto the world's streets and highways every year, and she is hunting for places where it is concentrated enough to be worth recovering. One of her prime targets is the waste containers in road-sweeping machines.

This could prove lucrative, but Prichard is motivated by something far more significant than the chance of a quick buck. Platinum is a vital component not only of catalytic converters but also of fuel cells - and supplies are running out. It has been estimated that if all the 500 million vehicles in use today were re-equipped with fuel cells, operating losses would mean that all the world's sources of platinum would be exhausted within 15 years. Unlike with oil or diamonds, there is no synthetic alternative: platinum is a chemical element, and once we have used it all there is no way on earth of getting any more. What price then pollution-free cities?


There's also this tidbit:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Chinese government is supplementing its natural deposits of rare metals by investing in mineral mines in Africa and buying up high-tech scrap to extract metals that are key to its developing industries. The US now imports over 90 per cent of its so-called "rare earth" metals from China, according to the US Geological Survey. If China decided to cut off the supply, that would create a big risk of conflict, says Reller.


The other day, someone using the name Geonic posted an interesting comment at TOD. He says he has 40 years of experience in mineral exploration, and while he doesn't think rare metals are actually all that rare, he does think that peak oil will make it impossible to extract them.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reality [is] that PO will seriously inhibit large scale mining of all 'bulk' commodities and virtually all specialty metals. At least some part of the exploration/development/mining cycle is critically dependent on 'cheap' oil. Even in large coal open pits, where draglines and face shovels are electric, trucks and mobile plants use diesel - and a lot ot it. So 'geologically' things aren't too bad for most (or all?) non-fuel commodities, this will be irrelevant thanks to PO.
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 14:26:15

We only have 10^35 years before protons may start to decay. 8O
I don't think heavy fuel oils will impact the price of extraction that much. High prices would kill personal automotive demand way before they'll impinge on heavy industry in the same way.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 16:06:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reality [is] that PO will seriously inhibit large scale mining of all 'bulk' commodities and virtually all specialty metals. At least some part of the exploration/development/mining cycle is critically dependent on 'cheap' oil. Even in large coal open pits, where draglines and face shovels are electric, trucks and mobile plants use diesel - and a lot ot it. So 'geologically' things aren't too bad for most (or all?) non-fuel commodities, this will be irrelevant thanks to PO.


I've got 30 years of mining experience, and this guy is right on. When you look at any kind of resource extraction, the first thing you take into consideration is the overburden. You could have a one foot vein of solid gold, but if it is under 300 feet of solid granite it is absolutely worthless.

In know of incredible deposits of all kinds of minerals; they lay deep in the ground, and that is where they are going to stay. As oil gets more costly, deep will get closer and closer to the surface.
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby dissident » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 21:29:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f China decided to cut off the supply, that would create a big risk of conflict, says Reller.


So the US thinks it has a right to the resources in other countries. The dimwitted US leadership is having a hard time grabbing Iraqi oil, what makes it think it can roll over China?
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 03:41:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')e only have 10^35 years before protons may start to decay. 8O
I don't think heavy fuel oils will impact the price of extraction that much. High prices would kill personal automotive demand way before they'll impinge on heavy industry in the same way.

Protons are either decaying with slow rate of half life at least 10 E35 years or not decaying.
There is no reson why laws of physics should change after 10 E35 years for protons to begin decay.

In reality they are probably decaying with much slower rate than 10 E35 if one takes into consideration concept of heat death of Universe.

All arguments about proton decay/nondecay can be boiled out to problems related to conservation of quantum property known as baryonic number.
If it must be conserved, then protons will not decay to leptons and evaporating BH will have to leave small and stable "remnant" on the end.
If conservation of baryonic number can be violated (most physicists are now in this "violation" camp), then protons must decay at certain rate and BH will evaporate completely.
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby BastardSquad » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 03:55:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f China decided to cut off the supply, that would create a big risk of conflict, says Reller.


So the US thinks it has a right to the resources in other countries. The dimwitted US leadership is having a hard time grabbing Iraqi oil, what makes it think it can roll over China?


There is no way in hell we can take China!

Be that as it may,if the U.S. economy tanks,China's economy tanks,so it is not in their best interest at this time to cut us off.

That said,they are not a democratic,(entirely) freemarket system(they can change the rules on a whim).So once again,we see how us dumbass Yankees have painted ourselves into one more corner.



WHOA!!

THAT(!!!) ............was a somewhat (completely!!!)contradictory response!

I really need to stop replying to posts in the middle of the night when I'm well into the second half of a 30 pack!!!

(I think it's time for you guys to organize an intervention)..................................................................................................................where I don't listen,...............and then................................I go on tell you guys to F^%$ yourselves,...........and then............................................................................... I begin ranting about how "you have no idea how truely F#^$ed you all are!!! Don't you get it?!?! We are soooo F#*@ED YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW!!!" .....and then you try to tell me I'm "CRAAAAAAZZZZYYYY" and sick (with the evil alcoholic gene)and need "help".

What were we talking about?

Wow,I'm reaching a new low tonight. :(
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 05:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f China decided to cut off the supply, that would create a big risk of conflict, says Reller.


So the US thinks it has a right to the resources in other countries. The dimwitted US leadership is having a hard time grabbing Iraqi oil, what makes it think it can roll over China?

Objection of conflict with China would be precipitating of nuclear exchange to end up the party on "equal" levels, even if equal means return to stone age for US, China and other nations.
Much of US military would probably prefer that scenario than option of China overtaking US and (together with Russia) rulling the world for the reason of having some resources left and US/West being depleted.

So dissident is right, albeit objection of such conflict would be completely different than you think.
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 10:46:33

80% of China’s GDP is exports, and 50% of those go the US. When the US melts down so does China; then China has 1.3 billion people that it can’t feed!
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby dissident » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 11:07:01

It is clear that China depends on exports and the USA for its economic well being. So why all the recent anti-China hysterics in the US media (which takes its queue from the leadership)? The Chinese did not threaten explicitly or implicitly to cut off the US supply. One gets the impression that xenophobes are in charge of the US who treat their paranoid delusions as reality. Trade is the exchange of goods, not the extortion of goods with threats of conflict.
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 11:47:42

dissident said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is clear that China depends on exports and the USA for its economic well being. So why all the recent anti-China hysterics in the US media (which takes its queue from the leadership)? The Chinese did not threaten explicitly or implicitly to cut off the US supply. One gets the impression that xenophobes are in charge of the US who treat their paranoid delusions as reality. Trade is the exchange of goods, not the extortion of goods with threats of conflict.


China is on a one way trip to oblivion, and the same minion wing-nuts in Washington that fostered it, just to make a quick buck, know it. When it melts down, they can say, “We tried to do something”. Yea, sure you did!
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Re: Peak everything

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 16:54:30

nvm pm'd
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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