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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortality)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 30 May 2007, 01:30:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Do you posit that in a post-peak world, the SOL is going to continue to rise?



Well, nearly 2 years in and it sure hasn't changed yet!! You would think this party would have STARTED already.


What planet are you on?

Read the news lately?

Escalating debt and asset depreciation does not raise the SOL.

Increasing debt gives an illusion.

Like Wyle the coyote, we have run out on thin air at the edge of the cliff.
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Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 30 May 2007, 01:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Do you posit that in a post-peak world, the SOL is going to continue to rise?



Well, nearly 2 years in and it sure hasn't changed yet!! You would think this party would have STARTED already.


What planet are you on?


You think ET is surfing the boards nowadays, worried about Peak oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Read the news lately?


And TOD as well, I'm charging up the credit cards and laying in the final stocks for the great dieoff. Aren't you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Escalating debt and asset depreciation does not raise the SOL.

Like Wyle the coyote, we have run out on thin air at the edge of the cliff.


I KNOW IT!!!! I'm just hoping that the consequences arrive before next months credit card bill.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby roccman » Wed 30 May 2007, 01:41:19

With all due respect Monte...I think what Praisedoom was getting at was:

Mayhem and death in the streets...empty case of MRE's...people stealing gold fillings and boots off the dead...the stench of decomposing bodies...undrinkable water...burned and gutted homes...broken windows and blood stains...pillaging, roving gangs on "THE ROAD"...the despair...dreams gone...wails in the night.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby roccman » Wed 30 May 2007, 01:49:53

Also...a small detail about the two year treasury bond auction today....

[sup]China DID NOT BID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![/sup]

Rates UP!!!!

Wonder if China not buying our debt is a good thing...NOT!!!!!

Popcorn anyone??
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 30 May 2007, 01:55:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')ith all due respect Monte...I think what Praisedoom was getting at was:

Mayhem and death in the streets...empty case of MRE's...people stealing gold fillings and boots off the dead...the stench of decomposing bodies...undrinkable water...burned and gutted homes...broken windows and blood stains...pillaging, roving gangs on "THE ROAD"...the despair...dreams gone...wails in the night.


Well, I am still not sure what he was driving at. Peakoil is not a date in time.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 30 May 2007, 02:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')ith all due respect Monte...I think what Praisedoom was getting at was:

Mayhem and death in the streets...empty case of MRE's...people stealing gold fillings and boots off the dead...the stench of decomposing bodies...undrinkable water...burned and gutted homes...broken windows and blood stains...pillaging, roving gangs on "THE ROAD"...the despair...dreams gone...wails in the night.


Well, I am still not sure what he was driving at. Peakoil is not a date in time.


Well I certainly think it is. I certainly think this website didn't spring into existence to have lazy conversations about future scheduling of bridge games and tv programming conflicts.

Wake up man!! Peak oil is in the past, this entire website was built to TALK about it, first as it was approaching, as it peaked, and now as we slide down the far side of the curve and into the Gorge.

Not a date in time.... :lol: 9000+ posts and you haven't gotten around to figuring this out yet?
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Re: Uranium Supply

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 30 May 2007, 06:02:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Sure, there will be an increase in temperature, even if we stopped today. I never said anything else. I said I don't think it will be very serious.


Again your ignorance on GW is showing; it is already serious. Have you not read the literature?

Things are not at all serious at this moment. Off course, that depends on what you call serious.

I mean what has happened?

People always moan about the weather. If it's colder than usual that's because of climate change, and if it's warmer it's due to climate change, and if it's perfectly normal no one thinks of it, they don't say: "hey, you know, the weather is normal so climate change isn't that bad!".

And still, weather doesn't have much to do with climate in the short term. Climate is about averages over longer time spans. In the last 100 years average temperatures rose about 1 degree Celsius if I recall correctly, and things are still fine. If they rise another degree it won't be a disaster. But if they rise 3, 4, or 5 degrees it might be rather awful. But this is not going to happen because the ultra-cornucopian IPCC is very, very wrong about fossil fuels.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 30 May 2007, 11:01:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Not a date in time.... :lol: 9000+ posts and you haven't gotten around to figuring this out yet?


Yes, I have, but you haven't or don't understand.

Peakoil is not a date in time where things suddenly go to shit.

We don't even know yet that we have reached peakoil.

That will only be seen in hindsight, just like the US peak in 1970.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 30 May 2007, 11:04:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Things are not at all serious at this moment. Off course, that depends on what you call serious.

I mean what has happened?

People always moan about the weather. If it's colder than usual that's because of climate change, and if it's warmer it's due to climate change, and if it's perfectly normal no one thinks of it, they don't say: "hey, you know, the weather is normal so climate change isn't that bad!".

And still, weather doesn't have much to do with climate in the short term. Climate is about averages over longer time spans. In the last 100 years average temperatures rose about 1 degree Celsius if I recall correctly, and things are still fine. If they rise another degree it won't be a disaster. But if they rise 3, 4, or 5 degrees it might be rather awful. But this is not going to happen because the ultra-cornucopian IPCC is very, very wrong about fossil fuels.


Are these guys wrong as well?

NASA: Danger Point Closer Than Thought From Warming

'Disastrous Effects' of Global Warming Tipping Points Near, According to New Study

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven "moderate additional" greenhouse emissions are likely to push Earth past "critical tipping points" with "dangerous consequences for the planet," according to research conducted by NASA and the Columbia University Earth Institute.

With just 10 more years of "business as usual" emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas, says the NASA/Columbia paper, "it becomes impractical" to avoid "disastrous effects."

The study appears in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Its lead author is James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

LINK
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby Chaparral » Wed 30 May 2007, 14:45:22

Starvid really needs to do himself a favor and read "With Speed and Violence, Why Climate Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change" by Fred Pearce.

It is a quick easy read with large print and there are enough references in the back that even a modestly skilled grad student could go find all sorts of supporting arguments in the peer-reviewed journals.

There appears to be far more to climate change than just CO2 ppm. It looks as if there are some pretty nasty feedback loops, non-linearities involving CH4, various oscillations and water under the ice caps as well.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 30 May 2007, 14:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Not a date in time.... :lol: 9000+ posts and you haven't gotten around to figuring this out yet?


Yes, I have, but you haven't or don't understand.

Peakoil is not a date in time where things suddenly go to shit.

We don't even know yet that we have reached peakoil.

That will only be seen in hindsight, just like the US peak in 1970.


Well, so far, it sure appears to ME we've peaked, and everyone else who has been graphing global oil output seems to have placed Peak somewhere in hindsight, just like you requested.

I realize that some don't do agree that Peak=Doom, but thats because they haven't read enough of the Prophets Kuntsler, Ruppert and Duncan.
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Re: Is Life Getting Better? (Cheeseburgers and Child Mortali

Unread postby smiley » Wed 30 May 2007, 19:16:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') mean what has happened?

People always moan about the weather. If it's colder than usual that's because of climate change, and if it's warmer it's due to climate change, and if it's perfectly normal no one thinks of it, they don't say: "hey, you know, the weather is normal so climate change isn't that bad!".

And still, weather doesn't have much to do with climate in the short term. Climate is about averages over longer time spans. In the last 100 years average temperatures rose about 1 degree Celsius if I recall correctly, and things are still fine. If they rise another degree it won't be a disaster. But if they rise 3, 4, or 5 degrees it might be rather awful. But this is not going to happen because the ultra-cornucopian IPCC is very, very wrong about fossil fuels.


With due respect I think you're wrong here.

The climate debate is not about climate but about weather. Obviously weather and climate are connected via statistics and disconnected via locationality, which makes this debate rather complex.

The statistics on weather are such that one cannot blame one extreme weather event (like eg Katrina) on the climate. However the amount of extreme weather events that have occurred over the past decade have become a compelling statistic in it self that weather is changing. Compelling enough for a skeptic like me to be convinced that things are changing.

The effects of that are profound. For instance in Europe we notice that the Jet Stream is shifting. This gives us now consistent dry springs and wet summers instead of the other way around. You don't really notice this when looking at the average yearly temperature or yearly rainfall. But ask any farmer here and he will tell you how his crops have turned up the past few years (which is pretty bad).

In order to asses the effects of climate change you have to make the step from global averages over long periods to local effects in limited time periods. That means the weather. Due to our limitations in knowledge and the fundamentals of statistical events, this translation does per definition involve a lot of guesswork and uncertainty. That is what makes this debate so difficult.

But to postulate that we will not have a problem at 1 degree and might have a problem at 2 degrees worldwide, without taking account the local extremes that might occur within this population is just wrong.
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Re: Uranium Supply

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 31 May 2007, 11:11:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', ' ')Things are not at all serious at this moment. Off course, that depends on what you call serious.

I mean what has happened?

People always moan about the weather. If it's colder than usual that's because of climate change, and if it's warmer it's due to climate change, and if it's perfectly normal no one thinks of it, they don't say: "hey, you know, the weather is normal so climate change isn't that bad!".

And still, weather doesn't have much to do with climate in the short term. Climate is about averages over longer time spans. In the last 100 years average temperatures rose about 1 degree Celsius if I recall correctly, and things are still fine. If they rise another degree it won't be a disaster. But if they rise 3, 4, or 5 degrees it might be rather awful. But this is not going to happen because the ultra-cornucopian IPCC is very, very wrong about fossil fuels.


Are these guys wrong as well?

NASA: Danger Point Closer Than Thought From Warming

'Disastrous Effects' of Global Warming Tipping Points Near, According to New Study

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven "moderate additional" greenhouse emissions are likely to push Earth past "critical tipping points" with "dangerous consequences for the planet," according to research conducted by NASA and the Columbia University Earth Institute.

With just 10 more years of "business as usual" emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas, says the NASA/Columbia paper, "it becomes impractical" to avoid "disastrous effects."

The study appears in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Its lead author is James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

LINK

Those guys are the same guys as these guys.

So yes, it's a non-linear process which might have very nasty and unexpected tipping points. But peak oil et al must be taken into account.

This is what James Hansen of the Goddard Institute says will happen if peak oil is in 2010.
Image
Peak CO2 level in 2040 at 425 ppm.

And what does Mr Hansen say we should do, what policy we should follow? Exactly the same as I say. Stop using coal. We don't use any coal and things are still great here. Why can't you people just do the same?
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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