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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Can we mitigate the effects of peak oil and avoid a catastrophic societal decline?

Poll ended at Wed 30 May 2007, 16:32:42

Yes
14
No votes
No
40
No votes
 
Total votes : 54

Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 28 May 2007, 01:06:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'N')ice choice, redwoods, safe place, beautiful, I wish you well, we may see you later when we venture out after things have settles down. South from Oregon is the first place I would have traveled to visit. Seattle/tacoma/Portland is going to be too warm.

I would drill two or three hand pump wells one with power and two with hand pumps, the old kind. Because you arent going to drill them later. Hide one in a redwood stump (drill through the stump would be excellent. hide your radio wrapped in aluminum foil then a paper bag then a metal box so it will run later. There will be ham radio people who will survive.
The water on my site is 120 ft down. Do hand pumps work that deep? I have a bunch of redwood stumps. So do I hide the radio and the pump in the stump? (I didn't mean to rhyme)


Yes but most of us ham radio people won't give a fuck. The smart ones sure won't. As I've mentioned a while back, I've realized the first thing to do in an emergency is destroy all ham radio and valuable equipment so it doesn do the enemy (neighbors) any good - they WILL take it. So all they will get is smashed bits. Sigh - I also need to look into getting a gun and plenty ammo, there will be a lot of culling to do. Yeah yeah I know I might be one of the ones culled, but at least I want the joy of taking many, many with me :) When TSHTF, I don't care about hearing the news on the BBC, I care about depopulating the neighborhood.

Better look up what hand pumps can do, hand pumps were a fairly highly developed science before plumbing came in. Hiding stuff, yeah, better get good at that, but you will be tortured if enemies (your neighbors) get ahold of you and think you have something.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 28 May 2007, 01:26:45

Yes, everyone's so hung up on having electricity, how horrible would it be if we lived the way Thomas Edison or Nikola Tesla did growing up? The only electricity they had in their lives was in the telegraph, run from batteries brewed up in jars and kept at each station. And you didn't have the telegraph in your house, it was at the local Western Union or at the train station. Or at the newspaper office, which is why a lot of papers still have the name Telegraph in their name now. It meant they got the news quick.

If you have to feed yourself and your family, do tons of farm work, will it really be worth it to put a ton of time and energy into an electrical system, or after a while are you going to just going to say to heck with it and live with candles and the sun like in the old days? I see us gradually going back to that.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Mon 28 May 2007, 07:57:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou treat 'alternatives' as if they are consumer items. We are not talking about recyclable batteries. Wind farms, solar hydro and tidal systems, nuclear power, all depend on an electrical grid that is very very taxed as is. Expect more blackouts this summer. Your 'alternatives' would simply require re-mapping the entire infrastructure. It was designed and built around abundant cheap petroleum not electricity.

Once again read the Hirsch report before you ask me to read your bland, happy-faced assurances that reasonable and intelligent people acting in good faith will see us through. That is a bunch of cornucopian pap. There is little evidence for it.

Of course I treat 'alternatives' as if they were consumer items. I live in north america, and anything I do here has to work within the economic frame that exists.

And around we come again. Are you problem oriented or solution oriented? Are you in the race for yourself, your family, your clan, your country or your world?

I can't recall who said it, or exactly to what they were referring, but this quote comes to mind... (I may not have it verbatim)

"All that is required for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Mon 28 May 2007, 08:23:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Robert L. Hirsch, The Inevitable Peaking of
World Oil Production', '
')Concluding Remarks

Over the past century, world economic development has been
fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Previous
energy transitions (wood to coal, coal to oil, etc.) were gradual and
evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive
mitigation at least a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive
and long lasting.
Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an “energy crisis” in
the sense that term has been used. Accordingly, mitigation of declining
world oil production must be narrowly focused, at least in the near-term.
A number of technologies are currently available for immediate
implementation once there is the requisite determination to act.
Governments worldwide will have to take the initiative on a timely basis,
and it may already be too late to avoid considerable discomfort or worse.
Countries that dawdle will suffer from lost opportunities, because in every
crisis, there are always opportunities for those that act decisively.

So don't dawdle, and act decisively. There has never been a government that survived without the support of its citizenry. It is up to the people to make the difference, and to compel their governments to act.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 28 May 2007, 14:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'O')f course I treat 'alternatives' as if they were consumer items. I live in north america, and anything I do here has to work within the economic frame that exists.



That's interesting, because I don't treat alternatives as consumer items. I treat alternatives as knowledge and inexpensive useful things people can make for themselves or buy relatively cheaply (now). Survival should not be sold to people, it seems to me (naive rosy-colored person that I am), but should be given freely.


And what do you know, I live in North America, too!


Regarding "consumer" alternatives, such as solar, they are too expensive right now to compete with the grid. I have a couple solar panels, they cost as I recall, over US$500.OO a piece. Not enough to do much with except pump water very low head, or run a few lights. I don't have the spare cash to buy more right now. So, if the poopy hits the turbine, I might have a couple lights or a fan or pump on 12V. But that's all. No refrigeration, no electric stove. oh, ha ha, and no running water!


For those of us on limited incomes, how do you propose to enable us to buy your consumer items? And why would we, when we can get so much more so much more cheaply from the grid?


After the economy hits the skids and we lose our jobs, how will we buy your alternatives when we can't even pay the grid electric bill anymore?


These are basic, day to day, nuts and bolts questions which have nothing to do with being "a good man" or whatever.


How do we pay for it?


A simple question.
Last edited by Ludi on Mon 28 May 2007, 16:13:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Jack » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:08:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '
')So don't dawdle, and act decisively. There has never been a government that survived without the support of its citizenry. It is up to the people to make the difference, and to compel their governments to act.


And the people want....

1) Lots of cheap, tasty food
2) Lots of cheap, dependable energy
3) Lots of cheap, convenient, comfortable transportation
4) Lots of cheap consumer goods
5) A house in the 'burbs. Another on the coast.
6) Trashy entertainment that doesn't tax the "brain"
7) Free porn on the internet
8 ) Cheap opiates (alcohol or various contraband)
9) Free health care (due to all of the above)
10) No responsibility
11) Lots of cheap sex without consequences
12) Lots of money for nothing

Notice that all of the above are delivered in abundance by our representatives, who are really quite good at supplying the masses what they want. While perhaps not comprehensive, I find that the above list largely defines the aspirations of the great majority of the yeast-cells infesting today's world.

Nowhere on the list is there anything to do with hard work and sacrifice. Particularly for some altruistic goal.

There are a few people who do not fit the above list. They are a small minority, easily ignored.

So, before any solutions can be accomplished in the external world, it might be best to determine if a solution to the existing patterns of human behavior might be accomplished.

First, one would need to get a consensus on making such a change. Then, implement whatever policies were required to accomplish it. I suppose it would take about 20 years before the first of these paragons of virtue rolled off the assembly line.

Assuming it were possible. Which I don't. The Soviets tried to create the New Soviet Man, one who was socialist to the bones - and they failed. China tried much the same. They failed. Pol Pot tried. He failed.

So I'd rate the chances of changing people to hard working, self-sacrificing little altruists as...umm...about....zero.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:22:17

Assuming it were possible. Which I don't. The Soviets tried to create the New Soviet Man, one who was socialist to the bones - and they failed. China tried much the same. They failed. Pol Pot tried. He failed.


Of course it isn't possible, but someone will try and when they do very few will remember the previous failed attempts. Ask a group of typical high school kids about Pol Pot or Stalin and you'll see what I mean.

Public opinion is much like clay and can be shaped in just about any manner as long as the primary distributors of propaganda (mass media) are controlled by a single entity controlled by (or controlling) the PTB. Sound familiar?? The PRC, USSR, Cuba, USA all have (or had) this machine in place already. Venezuela is coming along this path nicely too as well as many other nations for which a list is quite long and getting longer.

I suspect we'll be taking another stab at this New Man nonsense fairly soon as a means to try to control central power during the descent.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:29:54

This point can't be emphasized strongly enough - any viable solution HAS to work with us as we are, and not depend on us suddenly becoming virtuous.


Can one effectively sell consumer alternatives to people by implying they are not "good men" if they don't invest in these alternatives? Maybe, but certainly not in the way it is being presented here. Maybe with a big fat advertising budget. I don't know if foresight has ever been something one could sell. There needs to be a present benefit to a product if one is to be easily sold on it.


What is the present benefit of consumer alternatives?
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:42:01

We're pretty damned virtuous in our natural habitat - that of the hunter-gatherer.

Since going back to that will require a complete collapse, I guess all we can do is do all we can to bring on a fast, and thorough, collapse.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:47:47

I guess all we can do is do all we can to bring on a fast, and ...

ILP, you just did something incredible!! You connected 17 one syllable words in that one single sentence. I would never have guessed that was possible at all. I believe it may very well be an all-time record on this site... in fact, it may be an all-time record in the use of the english language!

Congratulations!!! :-D
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 28 May 2007, 16:53:22

"thorough" has 2 syllables. Although in American, it's often pronounced "thro"
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Mon 28 May 2007, 17:44:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')hat's interesting, because I don't treat alternatives as consumer items. I treat alternatives as knowledge and inexpensive useful things people can make for themselves or buy relatively cheaply (now). Survival should not be sold to people, it seems to me (naive rosy-colored person that I am), but should be given freely.

<snip>
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')his point can't be emphasized strongly enough - any viable solution HAS to work with us as we are, and not depend on us suddenly becoming virtuous.

Just out of curiosity, how do you reconcile in your mind these two statements.

How did you come by your knowledge? Did you buy books, attend seminars, buy a computer and rent a dial up connection to link to the web for research? Did you barter for services? Or did someone just walk up to you and hand you a survival manual? Maybe you stole a laptop and sit at Starbucks to use their hot spot connection, and let the insurance premiums for the stolen computer and exhorbitant price for coffee pay for your education. (Not trying to be mean or accusatory, just trying to make a point)

The point is, someone paid to implement the alternatives you currently employ. That person was probably you. You probably looked at the wasteful things you were doing, decided you needed an alternative, and went out and found one you could afford.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'F')or those of us on limited incomes, how do you propose to enable us to buy your consumer items? And why would we, when we can get so much more so much more cheaply from the grid?


I don't propose to enable you. I'm not in the business of enabling individuals. The only person who can enable you is you.

How much can you save, or barter for? What can you do to invest in your future well being? You set your own limits on your income. How can you make yourself more valuable in the current economy? How can you make yourself more valuable in a post peak economy?

Always remember the total cost of ownership when you make your investments. Sure, a fridge that plugs into the grid can be had for the cost of the unit, plus the cost of every kilowatt it consumes. It's cheap to use grid electricity while the monetary cost is low, but if you think the price is going to rise beyond the support of your income, you have two choices.

1) Raise your income

2) Invest in an alternative that doesn't rely on tying to the grid. Set it as a priority and sacrifice less important things until you manage to get it. Then focus on the next most important thing.

Sure would be nice if there was an alternative available before energy prices got so high they used up all the discretionary funds you had.

I don't have to make you feel virtuous, I just have to demonstrate that it fills your need better than something with a higher total cost of ownership. You'll do the rest on your own.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 28 May 2007, 18:07:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')fter the economy hits the skids and we lose our jobs, how will we buy your alternatives when we can't even pay the grid electric bill anymore?

These are basic, day to day, nuts and bolts questions which have nothing to do with being "a good man" or whatever.

How do we pay for it?

A simple question.

Excellent question.

The unstated assumption (in Europe) is that the government will take care of it, or (in America) that everyone will have jobs in the new economy based on making all that stuff (it is further assumed that the new stuff will not be made in Asia - as if).

The sustainability techno-fix cornucopians (as exemplified by Thomas L Friedman) do not realise that no government is going to give away power generation equipment free of charge. For example, the monthly UK household PV/wind subsidy budget is so small, it is exhausted by noon on the first day of each month. That's not going to change much as North Sea revenues tank and demand on the welfare and defence budgets soars. Going forward, most national governments will see revenues decline and demand grow. Funding an energy revolution as a benevolent act on behalf of the people will be out of the question.

Believers in the Invisible Hand are also going to be disappointed. No PV, turbine, gearbox or rectifier manufacturer is going to give a damn about demand exceeding their production when it's coming from people with -$10,000 on their credit cards. Get a job, clear your debts, save some cash, then tile your roof with PV. Why would any company choose to expand and build new plants to serve a market in recession with the nice people at market research saying the people in their segment are insolvent?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')his point can't be emphasized strongly enough - any viable solution HAS to work with us as we are, and not depend on us suddenly becoming virtuous.

Very true. A lot of people out there are moral vaccums, with no beliefs, no principles, no obligations, holding nothing to be sacred. To succeed, a solution to our predicament would have to allow for the fact that a very large proportion of people are not going to give a fuck. You can demonstrate to them that changing their ways will be better for society, hell, even better for their wallet. They're going to respond with profanities and keep wasting resources, polluting and running up debts, expecting it to be cleaned up after them. As someone said some years back, if someone owes you $100,000, they have a problem. But if someone owes you $100,000,000, you have a problem.

Our hypothetical holistic solution can leave such people to sink or swim, but they are so large in number, the result will be collapse. Too many people sinking and taking others down with them.

That's our predicament. The invisible hand of market forces is not going to have much influence on quite mainstream people who have already been telling it for years to go commit a lewd act. And we are not paying for new technologies with money taken from the future, because we have already taken trillions from there. I have a feeling the future is going to downgrade our credit.

The solution is not to expect a bailout. To DavidFolks I'd say look after yourself and don't wait for anyone else to start acting in enlightened self-interest. They won't act until it's too late, help won't be forthcoming, don't be waiting with them.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 28 May 2007, 18:38:56

Thanks David for your response. I've found no consumer alternatives which are as affordable as a small handful of books. No one is paying me to share the information I've learned from the books or from my own experience. I'm paying to share this information (I suppose, in a sense, paying to give something away). Do you see the point I'm trying to make? I have paid for something (information) which I'm now giving away.


Whatever it is you are selling, I hope you are more successful at selling it in "real life" than you have been here. I haven't found your sales pitch to be at all compelling or encouraging, to be honest. So, I have to say, so far, you haven't demonstrated that whatever alternative you're selling fills a need better than, say, fruit trees, which is what I spend my "discretionary funds" on.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby eastbay » Mon 28 May 2007, 18:56:12

'Thorough' would have made 18 words. Still 17 in a row is quite impressive. :-D
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Mon 28 May 2007, 22:01:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Whatever it is you are selling, I hope you are more successful at selling it in "real life" than you have been here. I haven't found your sales pitch to be at all compelling or encouraging, to be honest.

Firstly, I'm not trying to sell anything on this forum, as per the published code of conduct we're supposed to ascribe to.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('admin-Code of Conduct', '
')The following post content is subject to edit/deletion:
<snip>
Unsolicited advertisements: This includes offering goods, services, employment, or soliciting donations. This also includes advertising for a website. If you have something to sell, please contact an administrator and buy a banner.
<snip>

I started this thread to suggest that we could mitigate a hard crash, and perhaps provide a forum for solution based discussion.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I') would like to propose that there are many small ways to mitigate the problems associated with depletion. If we employ enough incremental changes, and work hard to educate ourselves and others, we should come through with fewer problems.

If we work to develop solutions before we have problems, we have the potential to evolve from a depletion model to a sustainable model for existance.

If we are so busy arguing about whether or not someones ideology is correct, or how a suggestion might fail to address all the problems, we will most assuredly fail.

I guess what I'm looking for is a group where people are concentrating on solutions, rather than throwing up barriers.

I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded.

I've been moderate in tone, and tried to discuss each issue as it arose, with consideration for dissenting points of view. I have also tried to show, in a very general way, that we can have a mitigating effect while acting within our current social and economic structures. You have shown your own personal incremental changes that will mitigate the effect of Peak Oil on you and those you have touched.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'ve found no consumer alternatives which are as affordable as a small handful of books.<snip>...(and)fruit trees, which is what I spend my "discretionary funds" on.

Which are consumer commodities that allow you to, in this example, provide your own fruit. Obviously, investment in a food producing asset is important to you. What other needs do you have that might need to be filled by someone with a different skill set than you posess? (Don't bother answering, this isn't a sales pitch, but a demonstration that you are already acting within our economic envelope.)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')o one is paying me to share the information I've learned from the books or from my own experience. I'm paying to share this information (I suppose, in a sense, paying to give something away). Do you see the point I'm trying to make? I have paid for something (information) which I'm now giving away.
Shows how you are trying to educate yourself and others. Thats the whole point to this thread. To generate ideas, and solutions. To get people thinking and doing.

To expand the discussion, and infect as many people as possible with the desire to change.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 29 May 2007, 03:57:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', ''')Thorough' would have made 18 words. Still 17 in a row is quite impressive. :-D


OK you want to get technical, look at that "sentence" again, that's a comma, not a period. Bunch'a multisyllabic words in thet-there beginnin' part.
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Unread postby Pops » Tue 29 May 2007, 13:57:30

I guess I range all over the 3 categories you mentioned in your original post.

I recall you said that people here generally dismiss or attack ideas different than there own or requiring skills, knowledge, interest and assets outside their ability.

That doesn’t seem too unusual if one is familiar with the human race.

Jack sells cold-blood
Ludi sells permaculture
Gg3 sells collectivism
Thuja sells urban transition
I sell rural
Others sell alt. energy, global warming, politics, yadda, yadda.*

To think that we would be a homogenous cult is to hope for exactly the opposite of what you seem to be looking. The fact there is no consensus here underscores the fact there is no one answer - but perhaps if we try there are many.

As you said: "If we employ enough incremental changes…"

As you can see, many here are doing exactly that - just don’t think those changes will all be the same or we will agree on the perfect path because we are not all capable of walking a single path.

We are each payin’ our money an’ takin’ our chances…



* Sorry if I misrepresented what anyone is selling.
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