by JPL » Sat 26 May 2007, 21:34:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '
')So are you saying that us in Europe will not face food/water problems as a result of peak oil? I respect your posting and would be interested in your opinion.
Wherps, I can sense a chorus of groans from some of the older members here but I will persist (grin).
The dreams and aspirations of Europe basically perished 90 years ago on the killing-fields of Somme. That's when European civilisation hit it's nadir and our decline was quite brutal for the first half of the 20'th century - tens of millions of us died and our world-dominating economies & political systems were basically wiped out. By the end of WW2 we had dropped down the worst part of the curve and were starting to flatten out. The story since then has been one of more gradual, controlled decline in influence, economic power and so-on. Sort-of benign decay, as it were.
So we have already had our crisis. It's done. It's over. We have nothing like the problems that the Americans are facing now, because our part on the world stage has already been played out - we lost, and everyone ignores us now. Now that gives me a comfortable feeling - I like the idea that a post-peak world will ignore us (grin).
You mention the 'credit crisis'. Yes, that's something that may well happen. It may well hit people in the UK hard, but I would also point out that it's a credit crisis, not an oil crisis. We have had similar before (Google on 'South Sea Bubble') & we will have the same again in the future, no doubt.
Food from supermarkets. From a health point of view, the sooner it's gone, the better. Look around you, do you see a well-nourished, fit & healthy nation? Or one that's slowly killing itself on oven-ready meals, saturated fats and beer? I leave you to figure that one out...
I'm sorry that this is a lengthy post but what I'm trying to say is complicated. Basically, I lived through the 70's oil crisis and the subsequent recessions. One upshot of this that is not often mentioned is that although it was a time of economic hardship, culturally (particularly if you were a young person) it was one of the most EXCITING times to be alive. Music, philosophy & popular culture flourished and it was a very fertile time intellectually. The modern 'green' movement was arguably born out of the oil crisis and I'm sure the coming oil crisis will also cause similar changes in the way people think. I think a lot of the changes will be positive.
I could carry on but I will give one good example of the way things can happen in Europe that will be quite unique & positive. Today I went to an eco-fair & alt. tech showcase. One of the new projects blew me away (& a lot of other bearded, middle-aged types as well). It's called 'La Restauration Du Bocage Et La Filiere Bois-Energie'. Trans: The re-creation of the woodland landscepe and the connection with wood-energy.
The problem is simple. Our local landscape (Bas-Normandie) was originally a broadleaf woodland which was carved into its current a pattern of small fields, orchards & copses in the medieval era. It's
a very difficult area to convert to modern agriculture which is why it's now in decline. The French govt. has been propping it up with agricultural subsidies for years, but now they have had a much better idea. The concept is basically to replant the area with its original mixed woodland & look after it intensively. The trees will be managed and used for local heat & power. This will be on a 'village' scale - farmers will recieve grants for the tree-planting, and local house-holders will get automatic grants of 50% to convert to wood-powered heating. Local authorities will also recieve grants to install small-scale heat & power systems using the locally produced wood.
One of the demonstrations I looked at was the result of research into maximising the efficiency of the system - they had a big tractor-driven machine into which they were feediing ENTIRE TREES and turning the whole thing into wood-chips. Apparently by doing it this way they both reduced the drying time and also upped the total energy per hectare by about 30%.
There is some big money behind this project & for me, one of the best things about it is, it's not theoretical, it's actually happening now. And it's to best permaculture practice. Brilliant.
But, you see, we can only do this sort of thing in Europe because all you have to do is strip away the last couple of centuries, and the original infrastructure is still there. Of course we can heat our homes with wood, that's what we always did.
To wrap up, I guess I would say there's only one place that you can go to, to hide from an uncertain and potentially terrifying future. And that, of course, is the past. We in Europe have a past. The Americans don't. So I think we in Europe will be OK, on balance. We just have to take-stock a bit.
JPL