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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Can we mitigate the effects of peak oil and avoid a catastrophic societal decline?

Poll ended at Wed 30 May 2007, 16:32:42

Yes
14
No votes
No
40
No votes
 
Total votes : 54

Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby strider3700 » Fri 25 May 2007, 23:32:45

Once upon a time there was 6.5 billion cars, traveling along a dark, rain-slick street, going anywhere from 10-80 MPH.

Out of the shadows ambled a horse.

A few dozen yards before impact, the fastest drivers saw the horse. In the time before the impact the first driver pumped his brakes and started steering towards the left.

A prayer flickered through his mind. His pupils dilated as his muscles stiffened. The second driver slammed into the back of him and the chain reaction started to pile up.

The leaders said a single word. It wasn't a nice word.

In the end everyone doing over 55 MPH was in the pile up. Half of them died in the crash, the rest with various degrees of injury. Everyone doing less then 55 slowed and came to a halt some quickly others nice and slow. They where stuck many of them so far back that they had no idea there was ever a horse they just saw that everyone was in their way. As they sat the anger started to burn and they laid on the horns. Those involved the crash where at first shaken but as they overcame the shock realized that these others eople still had perfectly working cars and off the went to get them. They had placed to go after all...
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Fri 25 May 2007, 23:45:27

Fortunately for the slower drivers, the hoarde of fast drivers were now on foot. Some had sustained injuries and some were dead.

Realizing the road ahead was jammed with the wreckage of the imprudent, the slower drivers guided their vehicles off the highway and found different routes to their destinations.

As for the angry mob from the wrecked cars...

Seems they couldn't overrun or overpower the people who had working vehicles.... Even though they were a bit slower.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Jack » Fri 25 May 2007, 23:48:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'A')s head of the fifth column, I pass these responsibilities on to you.

Seek out the shelters we have made.


Oh, yes. Yes, indeed.

I will seek it out. I will smile and be ever so congenial. I will agree with almost everything you believe. I will gently disagree on a few points - but will allow your superior logic to persuade me of the rightness of your actions.

And when I've gained your trust, and worked my way into your organization, I will betray you utterly to the dictator and the secret police. And I will be rewarded - for the secret police value those cold blooded informants who can feign friendship while maintaining toad-cold indifference.

I shall enjoy the luxury goods my deceit will purchase.

That's the beauty of peak oil. Lots of great opportunities.

8)
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Sat 26 May 2007, 00:08:10

In the end, Sharkey was murdered by one of his own minions.

His fortress was razed, the grounds around it cleansed, and the land recovered.

The peace loving folk went back to their modest happy existance after a short period of recovery.

I doubt that they made the same mistakes.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby strider3700 » Sat 26 May 2007, 02:35:23

sometimes I miss the zombie thread
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 26 May 2007, 05:13:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'O')nce upon a time there was a car, traveling along a dark, rain-slick street, going 80 MPH.

Out of the shadows ambled a horse.

A few dozen yards before impact, the driver saw the horse. In the time before impact, he slammed on the brakes. Then he tried to steer to the left - but the road conditions, the application of brakes, and his own reaction time left no time.

A prayer flickered through his mind. His pupils dilated as his muscles stiffened.

He said a single word. It wasn't a nice word.

The car hit the horse, and the horse came in through the windshield. Man and horse died instantly.

All of the above is purest fiction. It is also an allegory of our present economic and cultural situation. By all means, apply the brakes, attempt to steer, and pray if you wish.

But physics ordains the outcome for peak oil, as surely as it did for the driver.

Really?
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Jack » Sat 26 May 2007, 12:29:22

Neat photo, Twilight.

Actually, in the old days, when cars were a little higher off the road, the horse wouldn't come into the vehicle. Instead, the horse's head would come in and, generally, decapitate the driver.

One of the things one learns hanging out with highway patrolmen.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby katkinkate » Sat 26 May 2007, 20:43:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I') imagine a planet where people came to within a hairs-breadth of catastrophy, and with deliberation, hard work and consideration learned to live responsibly and sustainably.....


The message will have been relegated to myth within 5 or so generations and we'll be back to war and have to learn the same lessons all over again.
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Jack » Sat 26 May 2007, 22:00:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I')n the end, Sharkey was murdered by one of his own minions.


Sharkey was an amateur.

Putting Gandalf on the roof of Orthanc? Nonsense. You never leave an enemy alive. Toss him off, then tell everyone that he was acting really depressed lately.

8)
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby bobcousins » Sun 27 May 2007, 08:32:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I')f we work to develop solutions before we have problems, we have the potential to evolve from a depletion model to a sustainable model for existance.


Sorry, 70% hardcore doomers here!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') guess what I'm looking for is a group where people are concentrating on solutions, rather than throwing up barriers.

I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded.


Perhaps somewhere like www.worldchanging.com?

There are too many people here wedded to a particular idea to have any sensible discussions. Most open-minded people don't stay, leaving the doomers and crazies.
It's all downhill from here
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Aaron » Sun 27 May 2007, 10:58:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are too many people here wedded to a particular idea to have any sensible discussions. Most open-minded people don't stay, leaving the doomers and crazies.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Recycling can save us!"

"No... it can't... here's why..."

"What?!? Then what's your solution?"

"I don't have one."

"Then you're a close-minded doomer who can't engage in a sensible discussion."

"Ummm... no... Our disagreement is a discussion & your insistence that I offer an alternate solution is a close-minded & foolish method of examining the merits of my arguments."


Maybe there is some solution I have not recognized to our energy dilemma, but conservation & efficiency ain't it, for the reasons I outlined earlier.

now it's your turn to comment.

And then I respond, & so forth.

That's a discussion.

Insisting that people who disagree with you must offer their own alternatives, or be considered biased & unreliable, is itself, a foolhardy & unwarranted judgement.

Why must I present an alternative, for my other observations to be considered reasonable?

It's really simple actually. I can see & understand the circumstances which will cause all sorts of problems for our planet going forward, but I don't see any viable methods of abating the consequences.

Therefore I think we should keep talking about the topic & bring new minds to examine the issues, hoping for some breakthrough in thinking which offers some hope.

Why is this so difficult to comprehend?

Here's a problem... we don't know what to do... discuss.

Yeesh...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost open-minded people [s]don't stay[/s]discuss topics freely, [s]leaving the doomers and crazies[/s] & consider all points of view... the rest are simple-minded buffoons who contribute little or nothing.


There... FTFY
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Sun 27 May 2007, 12:33:24

For Ludi, I'll be happy to offer a part of the solution. Ludi was kind enough to point out to me that espousing belief in solutions without offering any was a little pathetic... My words, not Ludis'.

One caveat I would like to offer Aaron is that I realize this is not the solution. I do not think that there is any one solution in isolation, but many efforts working in concert will have a mitigating effect on a hard crash.

One project in the works is for the treatment of human sewage and organic wastes.

If we take an small urban area with a dense population, and divert all collected sewage and organic food wastes to a treatment facility, we can concentrate the solids. Anerobic bacterial action in a sealed environment would produce methane gas.

Take the gas, and run boilers for steam generation of electricity. Use the electricity to run the plant, or sell if there is excess. Make sure that the plant is designed to use sun and wind for energy inputs as well, and the methane becomes a backup stored energy source.

Use the buildings around the facility as condensers for the steam, to harness the process heat to a usefull end. It would also help if the surrounding buildings employed as many systems as possible to provide for their own energy needs, and were built to suit the climate rather than fight it.

Sterilize the processed solids and use them for fertilizer.

This system has the benefits of taking what would normally be a waste product that would require energy to dispose of, and turning it into a valuable input that would produce energy and a useful byproduct.

For the doomers out there, remember "Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome" Pigshit=energy.

It's not the solution, but it is a part of redesigning the way we do things to be a part of the solution.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Sun 27 May 2007, 13:01:27

Shannymara, we all know that hindsight is 20/20.

Developing this kind of system for new construction would be a snap. The will to produce better and more efficient housing is growing every day.

Separation of the waste stream is an exercise in engineering.

Changing the infrastructure, or upgrading it is useful and has to be done periodically anyway. Also has the benefit of increasing the GDP. I'm resonably sure our infrastructure is being maintained to a certain degree, as I still enjoy delivery of potable water to my property, and my sewage is not backing up in the basement. Resources to do what has to be done are always found.

If we're solution oriented, we'll find solutions. If we're problem oriented, we'll find problems.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby DavidFolks » Sun 27 May 2007, 13:27:42

Shanymara, I think you're missing the point.

If the only tool you have is a hammer, all your problems start to look like nails. Seems to me your only tool is a oil and oil based technology.

If a solution oriented person needs a ditch, he'll get a ditch. Use a backhoe if you have the machinery and diesel fuel. Use a group of people with shovels if you don't. Divert runoff to cut a trench. Get on your hands and knees with a spoon if necessary.

I simply posit that oil and oil based technology is not the only way to do things. I also believe that if we make an effort to find the ways to the ends without relying on oil, the crash will be easier to bear.
If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be called research. ~A. Einstein

TANSTAAFL ~R.A.H.

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today. ~Chinese proverb
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby Jack » Sun 27 May 2007, 13:29:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I')f we're solution oriented, we'll find solutions.


Good point. You've persuaded me.

Our problem is too many people consuming too much of the available resources.

The solution, then, is to reduce both. Eliminate about 5 billion people and transform the remainder so they like scratching out a meager subsistence during a short, brutish, miserable life.

My work here is done. I'll leave the details to others. 8)
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Re: I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded

Unread postby bobcousins » Sun 27 May 2007, 14:18:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I') simply posit that oil and oil based technology is not the only way to do things. I also believe that if we make an effort to find the ways to the ends without relying on oil, the crash will be easier to bear.


Doomer 101 says that oil <b>is</b> the only to do things, and therefore without oil, our society will immediately collapse.

An intelligent person like you can see the flaws in that proposition. The people here can't see the flaws in that proposition. Believe me, many people have tried pointing out the flaws, but to no avail. If you love whack-a-mole, have a go, if you like, but I guarantee you will get nowhere! Every time you addresss a problem, another problem will be brought out (nuclear power? Peak Uranium!), until finally the joker is played "we have exceeded our carrying capacity! We're all going to dieoff!".

You will also find that a lot of people here don't actually want to "solve" PO, so will argue against any and all "solutions", contrary to what Aaron might think. They would really prefer a die-off.
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