[DavidFolks]

I've been watching the PO forums for a while now. I had hoped to find a group of concerned people working toward ways to mitigate what will undoubtably a huge upheaval to our quality of life.

I've noticed that for the most part, we have three types of participants:

1) The Doomer; proponent of catastrophic die-off, energy and resource wars, famine, pestilence and death. We can't fix or mitigate the problem, just wait until TSHTF and hope we can pick up the pieces. The only way to avoid it is to power down and de-populate, but as we're not likely to do this on our own, it will happen to us. Woe betide the unprepared.

2) The Cornucopian; technology will save us. We are infinitely adaptable, will find new technologies, resources, ways of doing things. All is rosy and bright... the next breakthrough is the one to save us.

3) The Magic Cure; proponent of the one true fix. What ever their pet theory is will be the one panacea for all of our ills. Be a vegetarian, build an electric car, bio-diesel is the way to go. Whatever it is, it solves all the problems if we would all just get on board.

I think all three raise valid points, and have legitimate concerns. I don't think any one view is correct in its entirety though, and I think that paying attention to all three views will have a better net effect on saving us from ourselves.

You see, I think that we can be saved. I think we can mitigate the effects of fossil fuel depletion. But I don't think it will be easy, and the opportunities to slip into catastrophic decline are many and varied. The only way to avoid them, is through options.

The discussions always seem to break down because people are so wedded to their own theories and plans, that they can't see the validity of someone else's. I would like to propose that there are many small ways to mitigate the problems associated with depletion. If we employ enough incremental changes, and work hard to educate ourselves and others, we should come through with fewer problems.

If we work to develop solutions before we have problems, we have the potential to evolve from a depletion model to a sustainable model for existance.

If we are so busy arguing about whether or not someones ideology is correct, or how a suggestion might fail to address all the problems, we will most assuredly fail.

I guess what I'm looking for is a group where people are concentrating on solutions, rather than throwing up barriers.

I'd like to think I'm not completely deluded.

[evilgenius]

I don't think you are deluded. I do think you aren't respecting the length of time it will take for people to abandon their positions up until now. In the first case there is the group that hasn't begun to understand that they have been wrong (most people). Then there is the side that has themselves to look out for. Getting them to relax and take a corporate approach will be traumatic for both them and you. They aren't likely to admit what conservation can do because it would be some kind of admission. Wisdom is between these two view points. Either could take off and be the prevailing approach as the world goes forward. Either could wind up as the subject of the ridicule of the teenagers of the future. Both of them could fall under the wheels of the Olduvai Gorge.

[Twilight]

"Insufficient response to circumstances", as Tainter wrote.

Or to put it more plainly...

We can try, but I'm not holding my breath.

[AirlinePilot]

I agree with Shannymara on this. Once youve really studied what is appearing daily before our very eyes, you come to the conclusion that the pooch has already been screwed. I still hold a very small shred of hope that we can powerdown without catastrophe. I think we are in for a long period of economic decline and suffering. Possibly a generation or two.

Your thoughts are laudable, but until large scale political will is swayed and big money steps up to the plate, nothing you seek is going to go down. We will likely continue the current paradigm until we cant any longer. That sure is what it looks like is going on right now. Once we recognize that, is when the real ugliness starts. Ive never been a die-off doomer, more a lasting depression/dark age type.

[strider3700]

We probably could save the world.

Here's how to do it.

First we need to find someone that recognizes the problem and can find solutions to the problems. I do believe that people capable of doing this exists.

Next we need to put that person in charge of everything. Lets make it easy and just say make them president of the US since I believe fixing the US goes a long ways towards fixing the world. Get rid of the majority of the politcal system though so that these ideas happen when he says to do them. No debates or drawing out the process.

So now we have the ideas man and he has the power to implement them so we need the resources to do it. So lets take the majority of the economy and put it towards implementing these changes. Companies have to do as told or they are scrapped. Thats pretty much the only way that for a profit business would be willing to work in these circumstances.

Now we just have to get all of this stuff done before things get bad. Not a problem the quicker we need to do these things the more resources you throw at them.

So all we need to do is
- change over to a dictarship or something close to it.
- scrap capitalism and go to something sort of like communism
- put the countries resources towards solving the problem.

Shanny is right 30-50 years ago we probably did have the time to make the necessary changes without so much of a harsh change. These days we wouldn't be willing to accept the changes to our lifestyles. The major issue is anything that we do/find to extend the oil age doesn't help because we just take it as a sign that all is well and no need to change.

[dbruning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') change over to a dictarship or something close to it.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) The Doomer; proponent of catastrophic die-off, energy and resource wars, famine, pestilence and death. We can't fix or mitigate the problem, just wait until TSHTF and hope we can pick up the pieces. The only way to avoid it is to power down and de-populate, but as we're not likely to do this on our own, it will happen to us. Woe betide the unprepared.

[DavidFolks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'S')o all we need to do is
- change over to a dictarship or something close to it.

[Plantagenet]

There isn't a concensus yet about Peak Oil or about Greenhouse warming and other issues.

When some crisis forces a concensus on the diverse political interests that make up the US, then there will be action.

Thats the way a democracy works.

The last thing the US needs is a dictator. Any single person put in power can make disasterous decisions, and then use the system to squash all dissent to his program. The strength of a decentralized democarcy like the US is that more voices and more options are heard, more policies are considered, states can make their own policies, and eventually the correct governmental policies will become apparent by trial and error.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', '
')How about having a highly motivated and charismatic businessman

[DavidFolks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')You make human die-off sound so negative.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DavidFolks', 'I') just think that a decline through catastrophic die-off is inelegant. I would prefer to see a decline through natural death and reduced birthrate.

[DavidFolks]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'T')he hardcore doomers are counting in months or a very small number of years not decades. Personally I think that things could be very very different from today in 4 months and one badly placed hurricane. No amazing CEO could be ready in that amount of time. Even if I get all optimistic I don't expect to see the 2010 olympics my government is pushing so hard to make perfect. Even the US geological survey has peak being only 13 years away. GM takes 10 years to go from scratch to a new car. You think you can change the world in the same time?

[zorn]

I think the global warming thing is starting to make people open their eyes a little. I think most people have a unconscious idea that something is wrong. Even if global warming is overstated, people are talking about how we (THe US) creates so much waste, and that waste= lost energy.

But then again... i still dont know why they havent made plastic bags illegal. why not have people buy canvas bags and reuse them at the grocery store. its just a small thing, but its one step in the right direction.

[NEOPO]

I think someone just needs to learn more

[Ludi]

"Can we?" YES!



"Will we?" Sadly, no.



So, I'm not sure how to respond to the poll.


I think there are plenty of things we CAN do, but, we aren't doing them (much), nor will we (likely) do them fast enough to make much difference.


That's my gloomy outlook. And I'm one of the most optimistic people on this board!


Anyway, I'm happy to discuss solutions which we're currently implementing, and those we can start to implement as soon as tomorrow. Solutions probably exist, at least, they do in my opinion. It's the implementing in time which is the problem.

[Jack]

Once upon a time there was a car, traveling along a dark, rain-slick street, going 80 MPH.

Out of the shadows ambled a horse.

A few dozen yards before impact, the driver saw the horse. In the time before impact, he slammed on the brakes. Then he tried to steer to the left - but the road conditions, the application of brakes, and his own reaction time left no time.

A prayer flickered through his mind. His pupils dilated as his muscles stiffened.

He said a single word. It wasn't a nice word.

The car hit the horse, and the horse came in through the windshield. Man and horse died instantly.

All of the above is purest fiction. It is also an allegory of our present economic and cultural situation. By all means, apply the brakes, attempt to steer, and pray if you wish.

But physics ordains the outcome for peak oil, as surely as it did for the driver.

[Aaron]

I humbly accept your offer appointing me the Benevolent Monarch of all Mankind, & I promise to set aside these emergency powers when the threat has abated.

After I get back from Area 51, (I just gotta know), I'll be accepting applications for positions in my cabinet. Those preselected will be spirited away without warning when you least expect it.

I have some new laws to announce later, but there will only be one punishment from here on out. Break the law, & it's a one-way trip to Mindless Chat Island (location TBD), where you'll be exiled naked, & forced to attend "chats" lead by Rosie O'Donnell & Michael Jackson.

Again, thanks for your confidence in my leadership & I look forward to working with all of you to meet our hydrocarbon challenges.

Oh yeah... almost forgot... I gotta kill off about 1/2 of you... sorry about that but we just won't have enough for everybody.

Thanks for understanding.

Love,

Aaron

[DavidFolks]

Once upon a time there was a car, traveling along a dark, rain-slick street, going 80 MPH.

Out of the shadows ambled a horse.

A few dozen yards before impact, the driver saw the horse. In the time before impact, he twitched the wheel to the left and pumped the brakes.

A prayer flickered through his mind. His pupils dilated as his muscles stiffened.

He said a single word. It wasn't a nice word.

The car missed the horse by a fraction of an inch, and the car shuddered to a halt just before the ditch.

Chastened, the man in the car resumed his journey at a measured pace, careful not to exceed the speed limit.

[DavidFolks]

As head of the fifth column, I pass these responsibilities on to you.

Seek out the shelters we have made. They will keep you warm and dry without leaking heat to betray your presence.

The transport we have developed doesn't require the fuel our dictator controls. You may not be able to travel fast, but with care and management the vehicle will not fail to deliver you to your destination if you plan well

We cannot provide you with the same variety of food you're used to, nor quantities that allow waste. We can deliver enough calories to sustain your life though.

It is unfortunate that the dictator has decided to kill half the population off to sustain the standard of living he desires. When he dies, we'll have one less madman to deal with, and with luck, the hapless fools that allowed his reign will continue to be easy to control. We will be able to pick up the pieces and get on with life.

With a more managed and responsible approach, we will flourish within our bounds.