by MrBill » Wed 23 May 2007, 08:43:25
roccman posted:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Nevertheless, consider for a moment what might have happened without 9/11: The market would likely have collapsed to a Dow which by today would likely be under 3,000 and perhaps as low as 700, while the life savings of most Americans (and everyone else trying to scrape together enough for retirement) would have disappeared. Jobs violence would be endemic. The homelands of America's competitors, Russia and China would likely have fallen into disarray, which in turn would lead to increased pressures in those countries for military action (thinking mushrooms) as a bait & switch to keep the powers that be in control of those countries would have become necessary.
I didn't even bother to read the article because I have read it all before or stuff just like it.
This is all conjecture pure & simple. We have no idea what would have happened if 9/11 and other such events had not taken place? And to jump to the conclusion that the system would have collapsed had those events not taken place is, well, pure conjecture.
Especially to say that 9/11 stopped Russia and China from collapsing. Please. This is really just posting junk on peak oil dot com. I am surprised MonteQuest is taking part in this discussion as it has zero to do with depletion economics? Should I move it to the Open Discussion or not now?
History has proved time and again that economies grow under conditions of peace and certainty. Wars and all the economic activity surrounding wars usually bankrupt their sponsors, and end up destroying wealth. Sure, it takes economic activity to wage a war and then clean-up afterwards, but it leaves behind less wealth.
Yes, all fiat currencies are loaned into existance. Just like all houses are built, all gold is mined, all oil is extracted from the ground. Even debt has to be signed into existance. Pennies do not fall from heaven. I think this is self-evident and not really an insight.
If I look at all assets, financial and non-financial, they have several values, not just one. One is the nominal amount or face value. The second is its intrinsic worth. The third is it disposal or salvage value. The fourth is its income generating ability. And the fifth is its clean-up and reclamation cost. This last one is a negative value, but one of the costs of owning an asset.
Another cost of owning an asset is its funding cost. So in order to generate 'a profit' on an income earning asset - through rents, coupons, dividends or profits (revenue - costs) you have to fund it. Yes, that interest has to be re-paid. The standard measure is repayment in a currency that is legal tender.
Legal tender is backed by the government that issues it. It is a claim against all the assets of the government plus its ability to tax and raise income through asset sales and leasing of government property. Legal tender is issued into existance.
But the government also has the ability to buy back its currency. If there is inflation its value may have fallen. Yes, at some point they will have to issue new currency to pay the interest plus the nominal amount issued in the first place, but its value is not constant. It changes all the time. Its internal value changes against other fiat currencies, and its intrinsic value or buying power changes domestically through the effects of inflation.
Wealth is created when the sum of the whole in terms of land, labor, capital and intangible assets - including energy of course - are worth more in aggregate than the cost of the inputs. That wealth is not dependent on printing fiat currencies to repay debt.
However, monetizing that wealth may entail exchanging it for something that is tradeable. That could well be another more liquid asset, say gold, or for a fiat currency, that is created by the government's agents, or for a piece of paper that gives its holder an ownership stake in a piece of land, a share of a company or the bond of a government, which is just a promise to repay.
In turn those assets all have different values based on various circumstances. Farmland for example has one value expressed as its ability to produce an agricultural surplus and another worth based on its value to be developed into urban housing. Ditto for a forest managed by sustainable logging producing an annual harvest based on its total allowable cut per year. That may be more valuable than a forest left to mature and eventually die or fall victim to a wildfire. Or a deep water port. A deep water port without infrastructure may have value as a marine habitat, but it is commercially more valuable with docks, roads and rails connecting it to the outside world and abroad.
None of those assets are directly connected to the creation of a fiat currency, but assets need to be funded to be built and maintained, and fiat currencies are easier to transact with. But that farmland, those forests and that deep water port do not depend on endless perpetual growth. They provide a service and create value on their own.
And if the government disappears the value of those fiat currencies evaporates along with their ability to repay on demand, but those assets are still there. Except now instead of one currency, someone pays and receives their rents and fees in another, which could of course be gold or another tradable asset (labor for example) as well.
I think that expressing debt creation and repayment as (P / P + I) is very interesting and shed's light on money creation by central banks. But the above examples show that an asset's value can be expressed in many different ways, so the relative value of P also changes as well. There is no P in 'debt default', but there should be.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.