[gnm]

Who/what is SRP? A power company? What region?

-G

[roccman]

If I told ya - I have to kill ya.

Being serious here...

I have posted here the facts related to the southwest power grid.

A large part of Phoenix base load comes from Nat Gas.

Lots of planned coal generation...none with lights on.

Lots of planned transmission...some being built.

Lots of demand and a 400MW deficit year after year.

Mohave off line (1645 Megs) recently.

Lots of talk about solar farms...wind...etc...so what??!!...these will never replace coal.

Lucky it is cooler today than typical...

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'W')hat I am confused about is why Power companies don't demand rationed conservation as a way to stop blackouts from happening. They know its going to be hot- can't they reduce or cut electricity to certain customers during certain times as a way of avoiding a complete and entire collapse?

The thing that kills me up here in the PNW is air conditioning. I don't want to go through blackouts because your fat ass can't handle a little heat...

[thuja]

I agree that unless power companies enforce rolling blackouts there is no way to selectively manage excessive consumption of its customers. But couldn't energy audits be required? State mandated restrictions on excess consumption? Say you exceed a certain level of usage you have to pay a much higher bracket per killowatt. If you reduce below a certain level you get a significant conservation bill reduction.

Instead of just a flat rate, it would fluctuate according to usage. This would give people a serious economic incentive to be very careful with their consumption. In essence, you pay a penalty for being a heavy user...

[Twilight]

I think the way things are going in the US, if the companies did that, people would just phone up the billing center and give them a credit card number. Then good luck collecting the money during the recession. And then what? Cut people off for non-payment as is already being done by water companies in Detroit? That would make great headlines, after the summer demand peak blackouts pass, utility workers disconnect houses permanently.

I think between air conditioning, network constraints and personal debt, the US is trapped. It's a growing clusterfuck whichever way you manage it.

[thuja]

Well it sounds like Austin created a smart program- It seems like excessive consumption would hit the folks with money already- those who live in gigantic houses and are not thinking frugally. The poor tend to conserve anyways but this would give added incentive not to be a "heavy user".

Twilight I agree with you that a certain level there is not much wiggle room. I work with poor and disabled folks who try and get electricity assistance in the winter months here and the amount of federal monies alocated for assistance is dwindling each year. People are forced into food versus fuel/electricity and often hit the food banks when they don't have enough money to eat.

At some point after the credit cards are maxed and the bills are three months overdue, the electricity will get cut off...no more juice.

[kuidaskassikaeb]

http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-9/iss ... -5/p8.html

I found this post from a few years ago. It details most of the problems with the grid. It seems likely that the problems that may occur have little or nothing to do with peak oil and a lot to do with deregulation, specifically FERC888. Although if people wanted less air conditioning it would be good. The second post is from a more peak oil perspective. The last host simply explains what the second post is talking about, as he has some unexplained jargon.

http://anthropik.com/2007/01/the-worlds ... king-down/

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002337.html

Basically, the grid could and probably will fail in a really hot summer, even if there is plenty of coal and natural gas. The thing can't handle the long distance trading.

[pea-jay]

My vote is for Texas (again due to their being isolated from the other grids) and in the Northeast. Small chance for SoCal, though I think you guys will skate this summer as long as the gas fired generators keep operating.

I dont expect large scale blackouts until North American Gas production falls off that anticipated production cliff. We're not there yet.

[Leanan]

I vote for Texas as well. They've already had power outages due to lack of capacity.

Colorado in winter, Texas in summer. They are somewhat isolated from the rest of the nation's energy systems, which has its drawbacks as well as advantages.

[roccman]

Phoenix in the 5 ring.

[kuidaskassikaeb]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... 1_temp.gif


I vote with Roccman it will be Pheonix. Although I have no idea what the 5 ring is.

[pup55]

Phoenix and Vegas are both candidates, but I think you have to look for a place where the following conditions exist:

a. Older infrastructure, built up in the 40's 50's and 60's but still functioning.

b. A place that can get by a lot of the time without AC, but is subject to occasional heat spells which would cause a demand spike over and above the normal usage.

c. A place where there is practically no hydro or nuclear.

d. Pretty big population. Lots of industrial users.

Cleveland. Wait until mid-August.

Electrical generation fuel source by state

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'C')leveland. Wait until mid-August.

[basil_hayden]

Weather decides where the blackouts will occur, resource availability decides what will be repaired.

Eventually, weather wins.

[jupiters_release]

New York City is spending alot of money advertising in subways and newspapers for blackout preparations, they urge everyone to have a "go-bag" ready. I doubt anyone is taking the cautions seriously though.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')lackout of 2003

[Leanan]

I dunno...I think the northeast power grid has learned their lesson, and is less likely to suffer an outage now. They've had a lot of politicians chewing on their butts. Not enough local power generation isn't that big a problem, assuming no more software bugs, since they can draw energy from the larger grid if needed.

Though I suppose we should be more specific about just what we mean by "blackout." Some parts of Texas had blackouts last summer. Denver had blackouts last winter. Hawaii had almost statewide blackouts due to the earthquake. NYC also had blackouts last summer, but only certain neighborhoods. They lasted a long time, though, and turned out to be due to aging infrastructure.

[Twilight]

As a general condition, I would say localised blackouts in New York are going to be a seasonal event now. The real problem is air conditioning load during hot summer months with new power-hungry consumer electrical items piled on top, power equipment has thermal derating applied as it is, it's running on emergency rating, essential cooling cycles are not being followed because air conditioning is run through the night, and at a certain point asset age no longer matters. If you abuse a transformer or power cable enough, it'll show accelerated ageing and go through a 40 year service life in as little as a tenth of the time. Or maybe more realistically, a 20 year old asset living out the final 20 years of its design lifetime in only 5. I wouldn't be surprised if Con Ed are having to replace distribution transformers early like popped fuses now. It costs thousands of dollars a time, so they're not going to be happy, but it's not as if they can tell the city to stop being so damn selfish and switch off the air conditioning. If it's another exceptionally hot month this summer or any summer over there, the network's going down again. The people and their needs have basically outgrown the infrastructure and the utilities' (granted, self-limited) ability to expand.

Looking longer term, Texas is screwed. Half its power is from gas, as far as I am aware it's not got much interconnection with other US grids, and Simmons graphically illustrated years ago that new gas wells are showing 30% decline rates. If they can't import power or LNG quickly enough, they're in trouble. A well-researched update from him on this issue would be really handy, by the way. A one-year production drop of 5-10% could break the system and to most people it would be a perfect storm coming out of the blue.

I don't think it's possible to call the location of the next blackout, by the way. You can assess the risk factors, but the straw that breaks a particular camel's back (out of a caravan of camels) is always a random event.

[HamRadioRocks]

Here's another sad irony about air conditioning: Everyone's favorite way to escape the heat can close off that very avenue for escaping the heat.

Does everyone HAVE to cool their homes down to 72 degrees, or 70 degrees, or 68 degrees? Each degree of improved heat tolerance or passive cooling you can acquire in summer means a lot - more than a degree of improved cold tolerance or passive heating/insulation in winter.

Is everyone that averse to conservation? Conservation has the added bonus of SAVING MONEY.

[Twilight]

A few winners, I think.