$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON -- The bad news: Gasoline prices will be high all summer.
The good news: Supplies will be adequate.
The scary news: A strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico could knock out refineries and quickly send pump prices soaring.
"We are one major incident away from a 1970s-style gasoline crisis," Paul Sankey, an oil analyst, warned the Senate Energy Committee yesterday.
Because of insufficient refining capacity, the United States has enough gasoline inventory to last only 20 days, he said. That leaves the U.S. industry vulnerable to storms, accidents, equipment failures and foreign supply disruptions.
"Be prepared to take emergency measures" such as tossing out environmental rules and drawing down strategic reserves, Sankey urged Congress.
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'70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
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'70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by Newsseeker » Thu 17 May 2007, 08:21:03
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by pup55 » Thu 17 May 2007, 09:26:57
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by newman1979 » Thu 17 May 2007, 10:41:22
I think twenty days of inventory is optimistic. Westexas on TOD has 17.7 days of gasoline inventory ex California.
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by aahala » Thu 17 May 2007, 11:52:37
"Be prepared to take emergency measures" such as tossing out environmental rules and drawing down strategic reserves, Sankey urged Congress.
I'm not sure I know what he means by that last part. The story
seems to be about refinery capacity. not the lack of crude. The
only US strategic oil product reserve I'm aware of is home heating
oil and the amount compared to total oil product demand would
be very small, perhaps less than 3% of one weeks oil consumption.
And you couldn't possibly use heating oil in your car, could you?
If he actually meant working inventory, there was no need for
him to show up. If we actually had inventory that could help out,
we would already be using it, the gas price spike would not have
occurred.
I'm not sure I know what he means by that last part. The story
seems to be about refinery capacity. not the lack of crude. The
only US strategic oil product reserve I'm aware of is home heating
oil and the amount compared to total oil product demand would
be very small, perhaps less than 3% of one weeks oil consumption.
And you couldn't possibly use heating oil in your car, could you?
If he actually meant working inventory, there was no need for
him to show up. If we actually had inventory that could help out,
we would already be using it, the gas price spike would not have
occurred.
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aahala - Tar Sands
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by DantesPeak » Thu 17 May 2007, 12:07:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', '[')b]"Be prepared to take emergency measures" such as tossing out environmental rules and drawing down strategic reserves, Sankey urged Congress.
I'm not sure I know what he means by that last part. The story
seems to be about refinery capacity. not the lack of crude. The
only US strategic oil product reserve I'm aware of is home heating
oil and the amount compared to total oil product demand would
be very small, perhaps less than 3% of one weeks oil consumption.
And you couldn't possibly use heating oil in your car, could you?
If he actually meant working inventory, there was no need for
him to show up. If we actually had inventory that could help out,
we would already be using it, the gas price spike would not have
occurred.
I'm not sure I know what he means by that last part. The story
seems to be about refinery capacity. not the lack of crude. The
only US strategic oil product reserve I'm aware of is home heating
oil and the amount compared to total oil product demand would
be very small, perhaps less than 3% of one weeks oil consumption.
And you couldn't possibly use heating oil in your car, could you?
If he actually meant working inventory, there was no need for
him to show up. If we actually had inventory that could help out,
we would already be using it, the gas price spike would not have
occurred.
I expect that EPA and other US/state government agencies will issue waivers (rule suspensions) on gasoline, which will be announced as early as two weeks from now. These may suspend environmental, shipping, content, and other rules to increase gasoline supplies as reformulated summer gasoline blends are needed. Expect these to be announced with little fanfare, as the GWB administration is already under pressure for not properly enforcing pollution guidelines.
In addition, they already suspended SPR purchases for the summer, although the DOE has $700 million sitting in a trust account specifically for that purpose.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu 17 May 2007, 12:11:07, edited 1 time in total.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by Fiddlerdave » Thu 17 May 2007, 23:04:43
"Toss out environmental rules"? Exactly. There is no price Bush will not make us pay (to him) to accomplish his goals of total freedom (for the oil operations).
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by Newsseeker » Fri 18 May 2007, 08:05:23
The situation is desperate now but imagine what it will be like five years from now. Not pretty.
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Re: '70s-style gasoline crisis possible, Senate told
by pea-jay » Sat 19 May 2007, 03:54:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fiddlerdave', '"')Toss out environmental rules"? Exactly. There is no price Bush will not make us pay (to him) to accomplish his goals of total freedom (for the oil operations).
These are relatively minor environmentally impacting rules. Lots of buck, little bang for it. Lifting just means gas can be subbed in and out of areas "easier". I say that in quotations because it really isnt that easy move great volumes of gasoline from one place to another. Other wise California gas would be heading east right about now... Remember, we are essentially at peak refinery capacity and demand has gone above that level with not a lot of help from those foriegners.
Here is what might come out of a 70s style gas crisis:
For starters, absent a war or a catastrophic collapse of Ghawar, OIL wont be culprit. What we do with it will be.
1) Expect a new and substantive push for one or more NEW refineries. I dont see how this one is going to get deflected (except by the Oil Majors themselves). This push could well take the form of a multibillion dollar handout for somebody to build something somewhere, dammit.
2) Strategic Gasoline reserve. We've got an OIL reserve and we store Natural GAS for winter use. Aside from a small store of heating oil in New England, we dont keep any refined gasoline stores anyway. Wouldnt be surprised to see the government look to this as an option.
3) Blame-a-thon. Everyone will be fair game. Look to blame to be handed out to enviros, big oil, GWB, Congress, the US populace and Iran. Okay, I know Iran doesnt haveanything to do with this thread but any blame they can take makes a future invasion easier. hahah.
The only question is will Bell bottoms make a comeback?
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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