Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: GAO report blackout

Unread postby joewp » Tue 24 Apr 2007, 00:40:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechman', 'M')ost of us want a bright, happy, safe, clean, comfortable future. There is nothing wrong with that dream, a nice dream.

Ah yes, the American Dream, soon to be a world wide nightmare.
If people would wake up from that dream, we'd have a better chance of avoiding resource wars and interpersonal conflicts over the next 20 years. Unfortunately the dream is too seductive. People refuse to wake up even if you shake them and shout in their ears. This is why the GAO report was glossed over, as you pointed out. Even the reporters don't want to know what's coming. They want the dream to continue and try to shake off reality if it attempts to intrude.

Sweet dreams, my fellow Americans. The alarm is about to go off, and there's no snooze button. :(
Joe P. joeparente.com
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
User avatar
joewp
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2054
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Keeping dry in South Florida

Re: GAO report blackout

Unread postby jbeckton » Tue 24 Apr 2007, 07:57:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mechman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'P')eople don't like it but it gets their attention and it usually gets good press, at least every time I watch the news I see 90% of the stories are about murder, crime, or corruption. Why does PO not get the attention that the people that get abducted by aliens for "experiments" get?

jbeckton, the difference should be pretty clear from your own list. People really don't expect to get murdered, or violated by crime or corruption or alien experiments.

Sorry, I disagree. People also don't like to see reports of global warming, pollution, or economic decilne; but it effects us all and it is all over the news and it gets great ratings.
User avatar
jbeckton
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2082
Joined: Fri 05 Jan 2007, 04:00:00

Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackouts

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 13 May 2007, 09:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ocuments obtained by the Herald show more than 12,000 transformers from Attleboro to Ayer are operating at above 200 percent capacity, with some as high as 900 percent over design standards. Union officials, who last night reached an agreement in contract talks with National Grid, say the overloads are pushing the state’s electrical system to the brink and could lead to widespread blackouts this summer

Duncan may be right!?!?!? Holy f@#king sh*t!!! Head for the hills!
Newsseeker
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1126
Joined: Thu 12 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 13 May 2007, 09:54:27

It's only the East coast. Good riddens. :razz:
vision-master
 

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 May 2007, 10:49:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')There are no (safety) concerns that I can identify,” said spokesman Ken McDonnell.

How would getting sprayed with boiling transformer oil be a safety hazard? This must be propaganda by the left wing liberal nutwing press!
Much of the US’s power grid has been obsolete for 60 years. They are still running a lot of delta delta Y, 220 systems. Many areas of the country can’t even get three phase. I’m surprised it hasn’t already melted down.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 13 May 2007, 18:52:23

This is why I call bullshit on mass ownership of electric cars.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 May 2007, 19:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')his is why I call bullshit on mass ownership of electric cars.

It certainly would not be feasible in many areas of the US, unless a lot of work is first done on the power grid, and very little has been done to upgrade it in many, many years. I would, guess, probably several trillions worth. As it is, much of it is an accident waiting to happen. Millions of new homes have been loaded on to it in the last few years with very little consideration taken as to where the power was going to come from. Just in my area, I have seen the average voltage drop 5 to 7 volts on hot days in the last four or five years. Some days my 110 is running about 99; ever heard a refrigerator growl?
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby gnm » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:50:35

I got one for you... I have grid intertied pv with battery backup so I can run independent as well. I see 97-137 volts all the time. I had to widen the base settings for the inverter to even get it to choke down the crap ass line power when it opts for a charge cycle from the grid. My wife called me once and says "the inverters making strange noises" and so I had her read off some of the various monitoring systems. I had to ask her twice on input voltage because it was reading 402volts! I told her "shit! throw the isolation breaker!" And things calmed down immediately. When I checked it later it was back to the usual but a bunch of my neighbors lost appliances and tvs etc...

-G
gnm
 

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby fluffy » Mon 14 May 2007, 04:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')his is why I call bullshit on mass ownership of electric cars.

Well, I believe that the current(sic.) idea is that you charge them on a timer (like 9pm-6am) when electric demand is typically low.
So that would in theory just reduce the problem to that of finding the fuel to keep current NG-fired peaking stations running overnight. (OF course, grid upgrades would probably be required as well given the state of the system..)
User avatar
fluffy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 289
Joined: Mon 26 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: UK
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby pea-jay » Mon 14 May 2007, 04:13:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ocuments obtained by the Herald show more than 12,000 transformers from Attleboro to Ayer are operating at above 200 percent capacity, with some as high as 900 percent over design standards. Union officials, who last night reached an agreement in contract talks with National Grid, say the overloads are pushing the state’s electrical system to the brink and could lead to widespread blackouts this summer

Duncan may be right!?!?!? Holy f@#king sh*t!!! Head for the hills!

Don't be quite as alarmed. Loss of transformers usually mean localized outages. Most electric companies will be able to replace them reasonably quickly after they fail. Plus if an entire section of town goes offline, it takes pressure off the rest of the grid. Self mitigation.

Transformer loss will only suck AFTER we are well into the decline and can no longer acquire replacement transformers (and other parts) to fix the inevitable breakage. I had a conversation with a SoCal Edison guy a few years back. He told me the utility is dependent on a single company out of Buffalo NY for a certain part utilized thoughout the SCE territory. Minor part, but no substitutes and not local to CA. Replicate that and you can see how minor failures over a long period of time will do more lasting damage than widespread but limited blackouts. The grid is incredibly complex and dependent on an extremely high level of precision to work. Even then it only works 99% of the time. Start unraveling the economy and I see no other conclusion than enforced random powerdown.

It probably wont even be dramatic at first.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
User avatar
pea-jay
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1547
Joined: Sat 17 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: NorCal
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 14 May 2007, 07:57:34

Do you guys think we will begin to see rolling and then permanent blackouts soon? Soon being around 2008 when Duncan predicts.
Newsseeker
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1126
Joined: Thu 12 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 14 May 2007, 15:22:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')his is why I call bullshit on mass ownership of electric cars.

Well, I believe that the current(sic.) idea is that you charge them on a timer (like 9pm-6am) when electric demand is typically low. So that would in theory just reduce the problem to that of finding the fuel to keep current NG-fired peaking stations running overnight. (OF course, grid upgrades would probably be required as well given the state of the system..)

That won't work. If you are running a transformer 200-900% over its normal rating by day (CRAZY!), you really need the long night-time low load period to let it cool. If you add night-time load, that doesn't happen and you've got equipment running at its cyclic rating long-term. Its lifetime is dramatically reduced. The same applies to power lines and cables. All are designed to have their rating exceeded for a short time (a spec might give an emergency rating of 8 hours), provided they are permitted to cool (a spec might say 16 hours). Bear in mind equipment must be de-rated above a certain ambient temperature. Once you've got high ambient heat, high night-time load, and region-wide practice of accepting the overloading of equipment due to capacity constraints, you've got New York in summer with air conditioning running 24/7, not letting the equipment rest. You resign yourself to hitting 'ignore alarm' as the oil gasses round the clock, replacing equipment and calming angry people every time it fails.

The surprising part to many is what pea-jay mentioned. Some parts are indeed unique to a single manufacturer (or worse, discontinued and unique to a stockpile while it lasts). If your supplier goes bust, you may find there is no substitute and you have to work around it.
So electric cars are not an option except as a novelty item, certainly not in US NE and SW. That unused night-time capacity does not really exist - it is already allocated and in dangerously short supply. Sadly I find the concept of thermal cyclic ratings even more difficult to explain to the layman than peak oil.

"But no-one is using electricity at night!"
"Oh yes they are. They are using 'not using electricity'."
The absolutely worst thing you could do is shift the transportation energy burden onto the power grid. You might as well sell your car, buy a crate of candles and open the breaker. Have no illusions about the fragility of the electrical energy system. For tens of millions of people in the US, it is in no better condition than their gasoline supply, and it gives no warnings.

The UK is not much better off with growing demand, closing power plants and near-impossibility of building new overhead line circuits. Many industrialised countries have their own areas with similar conditions. It's problems like this that reveal electric cars to be the folly that they are. And air conditioning, to be honest.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby pea-jay » Tue 15 May 2007, 02:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'D')o you guys think we will begin to see rolling and then permanent blackouts soon? Soon being around 2008 when Duncan predicts.
Simple answer: No.
Duncan may be conceptually right but he expects the worst upfront. Barring a catabolic economic collapse, I dont think it will play out that way. We will have dramatic outage, rolling blackouts to be certain. But we will slide our way into for the most part as our highly trained electrical engineers fashion make shift alternatives at to bridge gaps and improvise fixes while demand destruction due to economic failure will lower the overall load on the grid.

We'll probably end up with a jerry-rigged electrical system held to gether by Chewing gum and paperclips, running off a mix of renewables and waste boiler fired thermal plants before we slide off into oblivion, if that does indeed happen (I dont think it is a guarenteed occurance).
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
User avatar
pea-jay
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1547
Joined: Sat 17 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: NorCal
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby pea-jay » Tue 15 May 2007, 02:25:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'S')o electric cars are not an option except as a novelty item, certainly not in US NE and SW. That unused night-time capacity does not really exist - it is already allocated and in dangerously short supply.

Outside of the real hot parts of the west, night electricity is available and encouraged. Where I live about half our electricity is geothermal (always on) and operational loads well handled by the existing infrastructure. A major mining outfit where I used to live and work went as far as to shift most of their rock crushing and conveyance operations to evening and night hours due to the significant savings and encouragement by the utility
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
User avatar
pea-jay
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1547
Joined: Sat 17 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: NorCal
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby fluffy » Tue 15 May 2007, 07:17:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')he absolutely worst thing you could do is shift the transportation energy burden onto the power grid. You might as well sell your car, buy a crate of candles and open the breaker.

Maybe deregulation didn't work perfectly..
Seriously, if the situation is this bad (and I have no reason to doubt), then it's almost seperate from that of electric cars. I suspect that a few large scale blackouts in rapid succession would suddenly mean that funds to replace and upgrade equipment became more available.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')he UK is not much better off with growing demand, closing power plants and near-impossibility of building new overhead line circuits. Many industrialised countries have their own areas with similar conditions. It's problems like this that reveal electric cars to be the folly that they are. And air conditioning, to be honest.

Although the electric sector certainly does need more investment and capacity, I still regard this as far more 'do-able' than (for instance) replacing oil with ethanol and biodiesel. It's a matter of taking planning out of the hands of day traders and back to the engineers..
User avatar
fluffy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 289
Joined: Mon 26 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: UK
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby SevenTen » Tue 15 May 2007, 08:56:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'I') suspect that a few large scale blackouts in rapid succession would suddenly mean that funds to replace and upgrade equipment became more available.

Addressing the problem reactively (after a crisis) will cost much more than addressing it in a preventative manner. "A stitch in time saves nine" and all that.

As fossil fuel depletion rapes the economy, governments continue to respond with inflationary money printing ... but the money supply itself is abstract, and what the abstraction represents is a shrinking resource base. Shrinking, due to fossil fuel depletion. In relative terms, the farther down the depletion curve we go, the exponentially more expensive it becomes to get anything done that uses fossil fuels and a fossil-fuel-dependent system.

There is a good chance that in the case of a few large scale blackouts, the resources simply won't be there to turn the power back on, and the blackouts become, as Duncan's Olduvai Theory predicts, permanent. :x

edit: depend -> dependent
Last edited by SevenTen on Tue 15 May 2007, 09:42:59, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
SevenTen
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 195
Joined: Sat 07 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 15 May 2007, 09:36:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', ']')As fossil fuel depletion rapes the economy, governments continue to respond with inflationary money printing ... but the money supply itself is abstract, and what the abstraction represents is a shrinking resource base. Shrinking, due to fossil fuel depletion. In relative terms, the farther down the depletion curve we go, the exponentially more expensive it becomes to get anything done that uses fossil fuels and a fossil-fuel-depend system. There is a good chance that in the case of a few large scale blackouts, the resources simply won't be there to turn the power back on, and the blackouts become, as Duncan's Olduvai Theory predicts, permanent.

Very well put Seven. As I’ve been saying for some time that fiat currencies, all 3000 of them that we have seen during the course of civilization, have one commonality - they have all collapsed at some point! The idea, that money creates economic activity, is a paradigm that is so embedded in our culture that we just can not comprehend the fact that it is economic activity that creates money; not visa-a-vis. Economic activity requires energy, and as our energy base declines, so will our economic activity. How much money that then exists - is completely irrelevant.

I wonder if, someday, they will be using Federal Reserve Notes for transformer insulation? "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero." --Voltaire
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 15 May 2007, 13:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'I') suspect that a few large scale blackouts in rapid succession would suddenly mean that funds to replace and upgrade equipment became more available.

It's a sad day when a crisis is required for action.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fluffy', 'I')t's a matter of taking planning out of the hands of day traders and back to the engineers..

At this stage we might as well wish for the stars. Some countries will succeed here, others will fail. Sucks to be in the ones that fail.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby lawnchair » Thu 17 May 2007, 15:54:42

Houston transformer explosion, 17k customers inconvenienced. High temperature today, 80 F? link Gonna be a scorcher this summer.
User avatar
lawnchair
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 866
Joined: Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Union: Overloaded grid ready to ‘pop’: Warns of blackout

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 17 May 2007, 16:05:14

That's the most rubbish website design I have ever seen in my life.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to North America Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests