[hymalaia]

It was that exclamation mark at the end where I lost it, wasn't it?





(god emoticons are annoying)

[MattSavinar]

As far as how much oil is left:

True, no one knows how much. However, I suspect the chances of there being less left are much higher than the chances of more being left.

In other words, the estimates of the experts could very well be wrong. But I think they are more likely to be wrong in the wrong direction, if you know what I mean.

Shell downgrades 4 times in 6 months, now B.P may be downgrading., very little spare production capacity left, OPEC deciding to throw caution out the window and pump full blast. . . .

The idea that things might not get dicey till 2020 or beyond is delusionally optimistic.

Matt

[Onyered]

Oilburner wrote:

“If we all took the sensible precautions (and positive lifestyle changes) like you outlined then the world might well be a better place.”

There’s the way things are, and the way things ought a be.

I don’t see anyone keeping anything from the masses. Did you find out about Peak Oil in a top secret briefing? If the “masses” want to find out they can, easily. Most people don’t want to know.

I do agree with the initial post however.

[nigel]

Matt Savinar - here we go again, inserting a little more fear.

It's quite normal for those owning anything want to boost their borrowing clout, OPEC, capital value or whatever and they will add a thick gloss to their figures. Likewise, those buying, investing and lending to them will do the reverse. The market tries to iron all this out. Once Shell was caught look what happened to its share price. Today in the FT I see it's finally agreed to restructuring. It has had to accept full investifgation of its reserves by independent analysts. BP has always been far more cautious in its approach. I think even you would have to agree that this increased oversight has actually improved the reliance we can place on their figures.

The main thrust of my argument is that WHEN oil production capacity is reached prices will rise, consumption will fall and the huge amounts of oil still left will be run down more slowly. On top of this, new reserves will pop up (more good news 8000' below the sea off Angola this week) a discovery which, even though not huge, will help curb the Saudi's ability to use monopoly pricing. As prices rise so alternatives will be priced within reach and we will invest more in them. Energy will cost more and we will waste it less. Perhaps those buying SUV's and expanding cities in deserts will wake up before the punters are forced away by the energy prices required to cool and water them.

As for those panicked into even considering not going to college - get real man - as we ex-hippies used to say. Remember this: we have had a dry run at oil production capacity being all but shut off. The Saudis did it in the early seventies and the world did not end. A recession hit and we reduced our oil consumption, found other non-Saudi sources and crippled OPEC's ability to blackmail us again (for 30 years at least).

Remember also that Campbell has been predicitng the imminent peak every year since 1989 - he'll be right one day! Also, these Malthusians choose not to count offshore oil which counts for 50% of the future potential of the world for both oil and gas. Money is being made from web sites, books, lecture tours, advice and research by all these people, Be a bit more cynical. The oil business cannot afford to ignore them and want to hear (ie BUY) their analyses. There's money in predicitng the end of the world (what will there be to spend it on, I wonder?).

That's not to say we should not take the plunder, waste and destruction of the world's resources seriously. Anything which encourages people to live more sensibly has to be good. But to create panic - students considering not going to college out of fear - that's counter-productive. For those old enough to remember the seventies you will recall global warming was about to finish us off any moment. The predictions were too dire and the result was that those concerned with shepherding our resources were laughed at and ridiculed. A whole generation of policy makers proceeded to take such concerns with a pinch of salt. Look where we are now.

Complacency - no; concern - yes; panic - never!

[OilBurner]

Sorry if there was confusion there, I didn't mean to imply that the information is being blocked from public view (it's hardly promoted by the PTB though) , rather that there are many people who have suggested that we shouldn't be promoting Peak Oil Theory for reasons x,y and z. Typically: everyone will panic and go nuts if they knew. I think "Little Chicken"'s post is an excellent reposte to that argument. As the Scouts say: be prepared!

[Aaron]

Nigel raises some valid points...

I'm not sure how you know what sort of compensation ASPO or Campbell et al are receiving... (just assuming that I guess)

ASPO revisions are understandable, given the lack of transparency in reserves reporting. As new data emerges, new estimates are appropriate.

I don't see anyone getting rich from publishing on POT. I'll venture a guess that I made more in interest last year that Matt S did in book sales.

IMO hydrocarbon depletion is something which deserves greater attention on the world stage, & I am inclined to support anything which contributes to that debate, even if they are only doing it for money.

Just because you're paranoid, does not mean that someone isn't trying to get you.

[TheSupplyGuy]

The crises of the 70's lasted only a few months. Imagine something like that lasting forever.

[nigel]

Nothing is forever is it?

As prices rise demand falls until a new equilibrium is achieved. Paying through the nose for petrol/gasoline will be tough for those who cannot afford it. Oil is not going to run out (in 2008) but it will become more expensive. This surely is a good thing.

Has anyone considered that perhaps the Saudis might have stacks more of the stuff but they are keeping it back until the other reserves are depleted and they can gain the monopoly? Most plays can be made two ways. The peak oil depressives only read one side of the hand....

[notacornucopian]

Nigel,

Just a suggestion, not a personal attack.....if you haven't already, read a few of the books available on the peak oil subject ( Heinberg's " The Party's Over " would be a good start - and feel good about supporting people who write these books ) and then reread some of your posts. Although there is such as thing as demand destruction, that alone will not save us from the difficult decades ahead.

No one here who is serious about this subject believes oil will " run out "in 2008 - that has been suggested as a possible peak production date.

Opinion is wide and varied here - feel free to express yourself...

[Pops]

Nigel, I would suggest that you split your arguments into specific threads. It is certainly easier to follow the conversation when it focuses on a particular aspect of the situation. Start as many as you like.

Failing that, perhaps edit your topic title to reflect your main point – The Invisible Hand or whatever.

[MG-42]

This is my first post. I found this site my luck and enjoy reading the responses.
I have tried to do a great deal of what yoda has stated. I currently live on 6 acres, I have 7-100 watt pannels and 4-75 watt pannels, I do all my own building and recycle everything ( infact my house and all my shops are built from recycle material), both of my ups are recycled. We have started a program of reducing fuel usage, I store food and we have our own well and storgae tank, Yet there is still more to do.
I feel the peak oil is a real problem thet is not being effectly addressed and will eventuality bit us. Hoping to learn more from this site. Thanks :D

[Whitecrab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nigel', 'N')othing is forever is it?

As prices rise demand falls until a new equilibrium is achieved. Paying through the nose for petrol/gasoline will be tough for those who cannot afford it. Oil is not going to run out (in 2008) but it will become more expensive. This surely is a good thing.

[nigel]

notacornucopian - I am not complacent, I am concerned, I am open to argument, I am not a Malthusian nor a cornucopian. Have you read Peter Odell's works? What do you think?

Pop - My intent was to try and put a broad brush argument and a bit of balance into the debates to counter some of the extreme reactions - PANIC - some people were displaying. I appreciate that single threads are better for specific debate and that listing a host of counter-points allows respondents to avoid any problematic points I might have raised or to counter any baloney I might come up with. My single point was 'don't panic'.

Having lived through 4am Red Alerts in Berlin, the threat of M.A.D. and nuclear winter, Mao's solution to consumer capitalism, the dominoes, the 70's predictions of imminent doom - deforestation, pollution, global warming and yes, energy shortages, AIDS (which I haven't got but is a plague on our children's future), mad cow disease (which, as an ex-burger eater, I might yet develop) , the IRA blasting London on and off for 30 years - and being alert to the immediate threat of Bin Liner's insane medievalism and its possible effect on Saudi oil and the neo-cons as well as the thermohaline Gulf Stream switch - well, you get the picture. Peak oil production is merely one of the many things we should be seriously concerned about. There are too many of us on this planet and everyone seems to want to consume as much as Americans do. It is not possible, that's the real problem.

Running away, not going to college, sneaking off to a cave in Montana etc because oil production is going to peak sometime in the next 2-50 years - is a bit, well, bonkers.

Whatever happened to the positive can-do attitude you yanks are famous for? Get a life (okay, okay pessimists - while you can) - go to college!

Whitecrab - as I understand it, oil production is expected to plateau. According to IHS, World Oil, Oil and Gas Journal, OPEC, BP etc, world oil and gas reserves are increasing not decreasing well above 1.1 trillion barrels of oil (1.3 if you count in heavy oil and tar sands). The Malthusians choose not to count offshore oil (50% of future potential for oil and gas) - so I would not be surprised if the plateau was not extended - if bumpy - for some considerable time. There is no immediate shortage of the stuff, there appears to be a production bottleneck approaching. This will make life difficult but not impossible.

It's going to take a crisis before people will vote for a politician who wants to tax petrol, SUV's aviation fuel and energy use generally and invest heavily in seeking and developing alternatives. Let's hope its a small crisis and not Bin Liner knocking out Saudi oil supplies.

[MattSavinar]

As far as money, let's look at the doomsayers (other than myself):

Jay Hanson: No book to sell, and he was a self made millionaire anyhow.

Matt Simmons: Has a book, but the man is a billionaire. He probably makes more in one day from his investments than he ever will from his book.

Richard Heinberg: have met him in person and can guaran-damn-tee you he is not in it 'for the money.' If he is getting rich from his book, he sure has a funny way of showing it.

Colin Campell: has a book, but has worked for years as a petro-geologist. My guess is he will have made more in one week from his previous endeavors than he will ever make from book sales.

In other words, the "doomsaying" crowd doesn't stand to gain very much by scaring you.

On the other hand, the "optimist" crowd stands to lose a ton if they fail to reassure you/sugarcoat the situation.

If any of the various optimists came out with the truth, the market would crash and they would lost a ton of money.

Even Campbell stated that it would serve no one's interests if the truth was acknowledged on a wide scale, as this would cause all the markets to crash very quickly.

As far as book publishing in general, it is generally not a very profitable endeavor.

Typcially, the author will get about 5% of the book profits. So even if the publisher earns a million dollars in profits, the author will get only $50,000.

That sum is nothing to sneeze at, but when you look at the type of money Simmons, Hanson, and co. have made, it may as well be chump change.

Matt

[MattSavinar]

As far as panic - it can be a useful and sometimes necessary state of mind.

If your friend is driving the car 90 mph and about to go off a cliff, the best thing for you to do is to panic and either start yelling at him, or physically take control of the car yourself.

Calmly reasoning with him is likely to do no good.

Do the words "Let's Roll" mean any thing to you?

Matt

[The_Virginian]

Nigel,

I know where your comming from.

But rest assured Peak Oil is REAL.


Nobody needs major life disruptions over hogwash predictions of Doom and gloom.

At the same time it does no good to lie to college students about their future a career choices. The US gov. does it all the time.

For Example:

In 1998 the "tech field" outlook from the US gov. was "Rosey" A lot of people invested time, money and effort becoming Microsoft certified "whatever" (Enginiers, NT etc.).

All the while the US gov was (and still is) Running programs to HELP us Companies achieve more "productivity" by outsourcing to india and China.

Result? A lot of unemployed "computer geeks."

THE TRUTH may "bite" but it's better to recognize EARLY ON than to get stuck in a bad field, or a bad Housing situation. etc.


Panic is not what we need, I agree. We don't need Y2K style gurus running around saying "Buy my friezed dried Cranberries, cause I ran out of Frosted Flakes yesterday, and these foodstocks are going Quick!"

What will help is if People wake up to the SOMBER FACTS that Oil will be harder to extract from the remaining 50%, and as demand/population rises, this will put double pressure on the petrolium industry to provide what it can not, namely: CHAEP ENERGY.

Tell me that you see the Oil/ cheap energy situation gettin BETTER in 20 years? We'? No'?

As for Matt, the man gave up his possible career in law because he BELIEVES in this. Why can you respect that? If he gives that same advice
to some university bound starry eyed 18 y.o. why would you expect anything less from the man. It's called consistancy.

I KNOW a "Die off" can be avioded. Cuba has shown that Organic agriculture is viable for feeding the masses. The 1,000,000 quid question is: Will our leaders adopt a "Joseph" type stratagy in time to save the civilization from chaos?

OR

Will chaos, in respect to economic , political, and social events overtake MOST areas of the globe BEFORE things settle down?

With our short sighted leaders, those who cant even balance a budget, my bets are on the latter.

[nigel]

Matt Savinar - Sincerest apologies to all concerned who are in the Peak Oil fraternity and who are not out making a penny from it. To those who prophet for profit by sowing fear - *@%&* etc.

Panic is unreasoned re/action. The fight/flight response is always inappropriate when there's time to think it through. Those who think tend to survive longer. I don't think the car example fits the situation (but might not the handbrake or gear stick/ shift lever be the better things to grab? Won't your panic incite fear in the driver?). Where this site is reasoned, positive and balanced it's great.

The Virginian - I think we might agree on many things.

What, for example, do you think the logical position for the Saudi's might be given the obvious fact that world oil production cannot increase forever to meet demand? Might they not shepherd their stocks until everyone elses' runs out? Would they expose what untapped reserves they have and invite the oil wastrels to pressurize them to pump more and cheaper oil? What will their children and granchildren have - beyond sand and fanatics - if it they pump it out on demand for $10 a barrel? America is the only nation with the power ( at the moment) to force the Saudi's to show their hand and allow in independent surveyors. This might be something to aim at the politicians with. Pressure costs nothing and they may get a few votes.

[Ender]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')The idea that things might not get dicey till 2020 or beyond is delusionally optimistic.
Matt

[Guest]

I'll put it this way: I don't see how we will not have a total collapse in the US by 2020. My definition of "total collapse" is something much, much, worse than the Great Depression

In the 1970's, we had the following things going for us:

1. Much less debt to finance
2. Much greater spare capacity
3. Much less total consumption
3. Handful of large oil fields yet to be discovered
4. Very few nations had peaked

These factors are what allowwed us to pull through. We have none of that going for us.

Sure, we have much more technology then before, but as I have said time and time again, technology uses energy - it does not produce it.

Matt

[Guest]

The car example is an analogy. Like all analogies it is not perfect. The point is this: we are on the verge of a civilization changing event, and thus major action is warranted.

Some might say, "Don't worry - it's going to be okay." Others might say, "Run for the hills." Others might say something totally different.

Regardless of what camp you fall into, anytime a civilization goes through an event of this magnitude, it becomes stupid not to seriously reasses your plans.

In other words, if there were every a time to quit school, find a new career, or make some major life change in preparation for what is to come, it is now.

Those who will survive/prosper are those who have the balls/ovaries to make major changes that others will consider rash/unwise.

The sense of fear (of the unknown) is actually what keeps many people stuck:

"Gee, I better keep this job/major/education path cause what if Peak Oil turns out to be no big deal. I"ll feel like such an idiot and my family will think I'm a loser."

Matt