[cube]

If we are to assume that PO == peak economic growth then therefore PO == peak everything (world population, computer speed, car sales, the size of your waistline....everything). Keep in mind that humanity's limits is not purely based on technological know how but also market demand. For example we know how to build supersonic passenger jets but there is no market demand for them.

It's time to dust off the crystal ball and make a prediction folks. What is the maximum limit of humanity? What I mean is:

1) What is the fastest train that will be built before humans can no longer go faster?

2) What is the fastest consumer desktop computer you'll be able to buy before the economy crashes and it's no longer profitable to build faster computers?

3) Is the HDTV sitting in your living room right now as good as it gets?

Use your imagination! You can pick whatever you want....it doesn't have to be something as obvious as say SUV size or sales....which has already peaked.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cube's prediction:

There will never be a Sony PlayStation 5!

Right now Sony is learning the hard way that the market demand for a $600 PS3 is anorexic. By the time Sony breaks even on this financially disastrous product we may be looking at PO through the rear view mirror. They'll probably give it another swing and make a PS4....but that will be the peak. It sounds depressing, knowing that my future grandkids will not be able to enjoy a video game console with better graphics.

There will never be another Martha Stewart!

Martha Stewart is a brilliant business woman who glamorized homemaking (folks I'm not talking about construction). She came up with the idea that if you sell something overpriced then people will think the product must be of a higher quality and therefore the price is justified. I'm not sure what type of "peak" this is. Peak stupidity, ridiculousness, or wasteful money spending. I'm not sure how PO is going to play out but it's not going to be Martha Stewart Living that's for sure!

[bonjaski]

PO == peak in doomer brain

the theory that the world won't go on without oil,
that we will get rid of comfort,
that we won't find a better solution without oil

is the result of a low imagination and ignorance of doomers


also doomers are very antisocial individuals,
its very interesting that they doubt that we will come together to find a solution;

so its good to know that our modern system will sort them out and that we will get rid of them;
(they won't find a good work in our team oriented world)

[RonMN]

bonjaski, it's rare i disagree with every single word somebody writes, but this is one of those instances.

Quote:
the theory that the world won't go on without oil,
that we will get rid of comfort,
that we won't find a better solution without oil

The world WILL go on...just with alot less living people & alot less cushy comfort...and the plain fact is, there is no better sollution without oil.

Quote:
is the result of a low imagination and ignorance of doomers

No, it's the lack of imagination to foresee the train comming at you for fear it may be real...If you look the other way, the problem will vanish.

Quote:
also doomers are very antisocial individuals,

Not true. Doomers began by trying to protect others by giving them advanced warning of impending danger...after being scorned, ridiculed, and verbally attacked/bashed, we finally gave up & said "to hell with them". But it wasn't for a lack of effort on our part.

Quote:
its very interesting that they doubt that we will come together to find a solution;

Tell me a time in history when this has ever happened(?) I have never heard of 1 persons kids starving while the neighbor has his food stockpile & a great peace broke out between them. Even feeding that neighbor & kids would create jellousy & mistrust.

Quote:
so its good to know that our modern system will sort them out and that we will get rid of them;
(they won't find a good work in our team oriented world)

And YOU call DOOMERS anti-social? get rid of them? Don't forget, it's the doomers who are armed...consider that fact when you & your SS squad try to "get rid" of us

[Twilight]

Faith in human ingenuity cannot remain a faith position forever. There must be evidence of change. So far there is none. We are travelling ever faster in the opposite direction. I don't care much about what might be done in future. What is being done now? That is the question. Right now, nothing. You cannot find solutions to a problem the existence of which you deny. That's what it boils down to.

The oncoming train is not there. It is not there. It is not there.

Repeat after me, people.

It is not there.

Now if you will excuse me, I will be antisocial and step out of the way.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 'P')O == peak in doomer brain

the theory that the world won't go on without oil,
that we will get rid of comfort,
that we won't find a better solution without oil

is the result of a low imagination and ignorance of doomers


also doomers are very antisocial individuals,
its very interesting that they doubt that we will come together to find a solution;

so its good to know that our modern system will sort them out and that we will get rid of them;
(they won't find a good work in our team oriented world)

[threadbear]

The status quo is going to have to change. That is all. It's happened before and it can happen again. It will be difficult. There will be less of everything but perhaps there will be more time to enjoy the little things.

I propose a new philosophy for this change, and a book devoted to it.

"THE POWER OF POSITIVE SHRINKING"

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')ell me a time in history when this has ever happened(?) I have never heard of 1 persons kids starving while the neighbor has his food stockpile & a great peace broke out between them. Even feeding that neighbor & kids would create jellousy & mistrust.

[Madpaddy]

Two million refugees.

Quitters more like. They should have charged the all British Army Barracks en mass.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'T')wo million refugees.

Quitters more like. They should have charged the all British Army Barracks en mass.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'T')wo million refugees.

Quitters more like. They should have charged the all British Army Barracks en mass.

[malcomatic_51]

My prediction is that SUVs will get much bigger, but fewer in number. I shall explain why.

I have this idea that after Peak Oil, there will arise a principle that I call "Safety Theory". Stated at its simplest, the theory is:

"When there is a clash of values, there must be a test of safety features. The safest shall prevail, and all else shall vanish as if it never was".

This is similar to the Survival of the Fittest, but is specific to the situation of extreme shortage in human society. For instance, a rabbit has no chance against a fox, but rabbits can still flourish provided they have adequate food and the foxes have a choice to distract them. In the world of Safety Theory, we're specifically in the human world, overpopulated and shambolic; there is nowhere to run. The heirarchy of survival is set by control over resources, and control of resources is set by who has the power to keep control of them. This is where the test of safety features come in. To get control of resources, you test your safety against the guy who currently controls them. If your safety features are superior to his, then you prevail and he disappears.

This fixation with safety is already visible with gated suburbs and the current range of SUVs, which are the heaviest automobiles ever mass-produced for personal transport. SUVs are 50-100% heavier than the supposedly wasteful gas-guzzlers of the 1960s. A Cadillac of 1962 had a kerb weight of 4,500lbs, whilst a Hummer hits almost double that. Even an "ordinary" modern car like a Mercedes weighs more than that Cadillac.

I would foresee that governments will initially swell, but eventually they will go bust in their hopeless attempts to respond with democratic conscientiousness to a situation that cannot be addressed. Governments probably will not be able to be pitiless enough. Sub-societies will form around existing combines of money and organisation. I would expect the Police and the armed forces to merge with big landowners and wealthy industrialists to form private "states". The society will be a bit like feudalism. A tiny, remote superclass will control great, poor populations, whilst securing the frontiers of their "state" against "useless feeders" who would cause starvation.

Anyway, there will be a superclass quite removed from everyone else. This class's credibility will rest on fear and actual effectiveness of their safety features. These people will drive around in vast vehicles, probably a bit like armoured cars. They will be confident they can take out anything else they are likely to meet.

Well, that is my prediction.

[Ludi]

And nobody will blow up those giant vehicles with IEDs?

[Byron100]

I have a better idea....just toss out anti-tire strips in the path of these vehicles...tossing large rocks off of overpasses works just as well...

This idea of a "super-class" isn't going to last in a world of a hungry middle class accustomed to a "decent" standard of living. If we have to go down, we ALL have to go down...

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'T')his idea of a "super-class" isn't going to last in a world of a hungry middle class accustomed to a "decent" standard of living.

[Ludi]

Or they can devise a different way to live, and go do that. There are plenty of models.

[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')In South America, the FSU and some ME Gulf states, they live in walled suburban compounds with CCTV, razor wire, armed guards and where practical, electric fences. Meanwhile, the masses outside can look back at the golden age of times past and watch their per capita GDP tank.

It'll be the same in the West once the toppling economic dominos fell our own, and I doubt the masses will lift a finger, because they so seldom do. Those who do, can except bloodshed, a few years of elation and a repeat of the same cycle.