[MaterialExcess]

It might be a good time to start buying deep out of the money puts on an index. A significant crash is almost guaranteed now. The problem is timing it though which is impossible. You could just continue to place small bets on deep out of the money index puts. Most will expire worthless, but eventually you will get a big pay off on a downward correction.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') bought $15K of a midcap mutual fund (JAENX) in late 2002 at 25. Its over 50 now. My 15K is now 30K+. Inflation hasn't eaten that up.

[Micki]

Dinopello, apologies if I am totally off and you already understand this, but I just came across this on Safehaven: http://www.safehaven.com/article-7485.htm
It contains a film clip that explains the difference between nominal and real value. Although my rough estimate is that you are still ahead in real terms, in case you are not familiar with the concept of nominal VS real you should have a look so you don't get caught with investments that increase in value but at a lesser pace than dollar looses purchasing power.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 't')he stock market is a giant fraud
who makes all the money ?
the insiders ..

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Foreign economies will eventually cool, for a number of reasons, at which point the Dow will surely crater. This is a last gasp, the last hurrah, where every bit of liquid capital from the idiot class is being squeezed to keep it pumped. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'J')ust remember how "out of nowhere" that adjustment in February felt to everyone. Total shock. Even Cramer was subdued.

The moment before the bottom falls out the party is always still rocking.

Whenever this market begins to correct it will be a shock to everyone.

If you play about equal parts stocks, long bonds and gold, you're set for just about any economic malfunction. No need to load up exclusively on gold for protection, because there may well be another 1-2 years in this bull market and there is no need to sit it out completely because you think it is inflated.

Pay down your debt, too. That's about the best investment there is.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'J')ust remember how "out of nowhere" that adjustment in February felt to everyone. Total shock. Even Cramer was subdued.

The moment before the bottom falls out the party is always still rocking.

Whenever this market begins to correct it will be a shock to everyone.

If you play about equal parts stocks, long bonds and gold, you're set for just about any economic malfunction. No need to load up exclusively on gold for protection, because there may well be another 1-2 years in this bull market and there is no need to sit it out completely because you think it is inflated.

Pay down your debt, too. That's about the best investment there is.

[ColossalContrarian]

Graphs with data in .csv format HERE

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..
Correct me if I'm wrong here. If you buy bonds that mature in say 20 or 30 years at a fixed interest rate of 10%, that seems like a great rate of interest, right now,( particularly European bonds). There is nothing to prevent central banks from raising interest rates over 10% in the next few years. In that case you're stuck with bonds that you can't sell. Long bonds seem crazy, the wildest of speculation, imho.
...

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..
Correct me if I'm wrong here. If you buy bonds that mature in say 20 or 30 years at a fixed interest rate of 10%, that seems like a great rate of interest, right now,( particularly European bonds). There is nothing to prevent central banks from raising interest rates over 10% in the next few years. In that case you're stuck with bonds that you can't sell. Long bonds seem crazy, the wildest of speculation, imho.
...

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')..
The wisest thing to do in the event interest rates drop off AND the dollar weakens considerably, which it should in that event, is to invest in gold. $100 worth of gold could triple or quadruple in that scenario, which would exceed inflation, and you really would profit, in terms of purchasing power---I think --though I admit, am a bit of a bond-tard.

[halcyon]

There are people , like Jeremy Grantham, who are saying all asset classes everywhere are bubbling:

http://www.thestreet.com/_breitbart/fun ... =breitbart

Of course, none of the people who do private investing fee based give out free tips, so this is not 100% true either.

But there's a lot of loose money on all major markets, so there's some truth to it.

So it's not just stock market, gold and real estate.

[mmasters]

While money can vanish as debts are paid wealth doesn't vanish. When that bubble bursts people are gonna run for a "safe haven"
Best be in the safe haven before everyone and their brother tries to come on board. Because at that point the safe haven becomes questionable and selling out into other things may be the best move then. Just have to evaluate it as it happens. IMO, playing the crash will be a juggling act. The market will be like quick sand for most poeple's money.

[Twilight]

I found this to be strangely appropriate.

[steam_cannon]

Commodity Bubble?

Do you think we are in a commodity bubble? If so, is it being caused by money looking for an exit, rising prices from higher fuel prices, weakening dollar, peak mining or a mix? And if commodities are overvalued what do you think the fall out will be? And in what commodities?

Fools running with bulls?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JOHN CLEMMOW', '
')JOHN CLEMMOW: I think that’s fair to say. I think almost everybody would now acknowledge that what we’ve seen is a fully-fledged bubble emerging in commodity prices - is the bubble about to burst or not? I would have to say that the supply and demand fundamentals for the commodities that are consumed - remember gold is not really consumed, so supply and demand doesn’t really come in there - but supply and demand fundamentals for most of the commodities doesn’t justify pricing anywhere near these kind of levels.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19717

[Tanada]

It is the perverse nature of the bussiness that makes everything going up into a bubble, too many pile on and buying exceeds value equals a bubble ready to pop.

[mmasters]

Nearly everything's in a bubble.

At the root of the global bubble is cheap Japanese loan money. It has gotten invested all over the world and in nearly everything.

Food commodities are in less of a bubble than the rest of the market because that's a sensitive area.

[Twilight]

Anything can become a bubble at any time. All it takes is for the magical infinite cash people to shift their focus.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'A')nything can become a bubble at any time. All it takes is for the magical infinite cash people to shift their focus.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'B')ut I'm wondering, do you think in a long term declining market [such as the depression oil depletion should bring], would cause a long term run of money into commodities? Making it less of a bubble and more of a long term trend? I'm just wondering if peak oil/mining could cause an unusual market shift like that. Kind of like as the titanic was sinking the lower levels got flooded first forcing people to go on deck.