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THE US Refinery Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 10:33:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'I') saw on CNBC today that there's several Texas refiners out with power problems. I could only find this article that mildly confirms it:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Since early February refineries in Texas, Louisiana, California, Delaware, Ontario, Pennsylvania and Colorado have trimmed fuel output because of fires and interrupted power supplies.


If we're starting down into the Olduvai gorge, we can expect more refineries with power problems, I would guess. Just another unexpected positive feedback mechanism that will lead to a severe crash. These are the conclusions you have to come to when you realize that the electric grid depends on diesel and gasoline, and gas and diesel production depend on electricity. If one goes, so does the other.


I posted a few stories already this year on power problems causing refinery outages. Since power outages are most likely during peak summer cooling demand, which occurs about the same time as peak driving demand, the possibility of summer price spike in gasoline seems to be increasing as time goes on. Just about all parts of the country are getting closer to their electrical generating capacity. This would be especially true in California, being somewhat of a stranded gasoline market, which is probably why they are pushing so hard for Valero to produce there..
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Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 11:25:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I posted a few stories already this year on power problems causing refinery outages. Since power outages are most likely during peak summer cooling demand, which occurs about the same time as peak driving demand, the possibility of summer price spike in gasoline seems to be increasing as time goes on. Just about all parts of the country are getting closer to their electrical generating capacity. This would be especially true in California, being somewhat of a stranded gasoline market, which is probably why they are pushing so hard for Valero to produce there..


This is already looking like it could be a wild summer and this is just one more reason to think so.
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Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 11:48:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'I')f we're starting down into the Olduvai gorge, we can expect more refineries with power problems, I would guess.


I think the real question hidden in this statement is "At what point do the power shortages become so critical that they have to divert power from the masses to keep the refineries running?"

Will they shut off the grid to the lower class folks to keep the middle class driving, or keep the lights on for everyone and run the pumps dry?
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 20:15:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'W')ill they shut off the grid to the lower class folks to keep the middle class driving, or keep the lights on for everyone and run the pumps dry?

Makes no difference, that's not where the problem is. In my experience, the biggest source of power supply problems in heavy industry is deferred maintenance of local distribution equipment - cables, power transformers and switchboards owned by and/or located on the premises of the business in question. There is no reason to expect the refineries paid any more attention to it than they did to the rest of their operations. Indeed, I would expect the answer is considerably less, as it represents an overhead not directly related to production.

On one occasion, I saw a factory boss say he didn't know when the last time his 45-year old electrical equipment was inspected because the one employee responsible for looking after it, retired a year previously. Equipment not under the oversight of a utility company can simply disappear off asset registers until it fails. It's often in a shed and no-one knows what the shed is for, and who might have a key.

In my experience, most heavy industry is on contracts where it receives power at a reduced rate in exchange for being the first to be disconnected in the event of network-wide power shortage. However, certain industries do the opposite and pay extra to be the last on the list, but there tends to be a special argument to the effect that the safety risk from disconnection outweighs the safety risk to the public from a residential blackout. I do not know what arrangement US refineries have, but the cynical side of me suspects they went for the cheaper option.
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Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby kmann » Sat 24 Mar 2007, 23:57:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', ' ')I do not know what arrangement US refineries have, but the cynical side of me suspects they went for the cheaper option.

I would seriously doubt that. A refinery is not like a light bulb that goes on with the flip of a switch. It takes a month to fire up one of the big ones. They loose a lot of production (money) with a power failure.
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Re: US Refinery Incidents Becoming More Frequent

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sun 25 Mar 2007, 01:36:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'W')ill they shut off the grid to the lower class folks to keep the middle class driving, or keep the lights on for everyone and run the pumps dry?

Makes no difference, that's not where the problem is.


Ah, but it does matter. Refineries are already experiencing power problems. Fortunately, the disruptions haven't been crippling so far, but they have affected pump prices. Looking at demand growth, we could see significant power disruptions as early as this summer. And when I say "disruptions", I mean full-on blackouts in major markets. Who are the electric companies going to cut off? That's the question here. Will they cut off the refineries? Not if they can help it. Refinery disruptions are extremely damaging to the economy (See fire at Nanticoke) and must be viewed as unacceptable by the hydro network. But that means they will have to cut off someone. Is it going to be the "big business" to which you alluded? Unlikely.

It doesn't matter whether the "supply problems" are caused by insufficient capacity, or poor maintainance as you suggest. All that matters is there isn't enough to go around.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I') do not know what arrangement US refineries have, but the cynical side of me suspects they went for the cheaper option.


I can see where you might draw that conclusion, and from a purely cynical perspective it makes sense, but I think you underestimate the level of corporate penetration in the US government, especially in the energy sector. follow the logic of my position for a moment:

I think we can all reasonably agree that the US government is painfully aware of the critical importance of energy to the economy. I think we can also agree that the importance of the stability of the energy supply extends beyond whatever contractual agreements the refineries have entered into with the hydro producers. To that end, I think it's reasonable to assume that the (US) goverment would intervene on behalf of the refineries to ensure adequate power, despite the terms of any existing contracts, even at the expense of the hydro companies' other customers.

I would not be surprised to find out that the refineries both a) opted for the "first cutoff" option as you suspected and b) intend to cite "national security" as a reason to violate those terms when the electricity shortages begin to threaten their revenue streams as early as this summer.
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Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby roccman » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 16:22:31

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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby Newsseeker » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 20:02:18

Wait until we hit peak season and the refineries are working overtime
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 20:06:38

The tank was just toped off & 40 gal is in hiding. Anyhoo, I can bicycle pretty much everywhere right now! :smile:

Time to pick up one of those locking gas caps.........
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 20:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'h')ttp://www.koco.com/news/13211973/detail.html


For some reason, refineries seem to get far more than their share of lightning strikes. I suppose it's the high metal towers, but maybe some scientist reading this could explain if there is some other reason.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 27 Apr 2007, 23:50:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'T')ime to pick up one of those locking gas caps.........
I've already got my locking gas cap and a couple siphons (for transferring gas from cans). :roll:
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 00:46:59

FYI, this is a tiny refinery (50,000 bb/day), and IIRC, Kerr-McGee sold it after threatening to close it around 10 years ago. I believe it's operating as an independent right now.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby joewp » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 01:30:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'h')ttp://www.koco.com/news/13211973/detail.html


For some reason, refineries seem to get far more than their share of lightning strikes. I suppose it's the high metal towers, but maybe some scientist reading this could explain if there is some other reason.


Murphy's Law.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby pup55 » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 10:11:09

Update: CNN has been running stories on this all morning (but nothing on their website). Reason: Apparently this blaze got into the storage tanks overnight and is still burning out of control.

KOCO Oklahoma City TV station has some video from last night.

EIA Refnery Listing

This outfit is kind of small, only 54KBPD.

Gary Williams website

Here is the company website.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby MD » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 10:23:45

All shortages this summer will be attributed to refinery problems, unless a hurricane volunteers to help.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 10:47:31

MD said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')All shortages this summer will be attributed to refinery problems, unless a hurricane volunteers to help.


If we run out of refinery problems and the hurricanes don’t show up, they will start blaming it on the decline of the honey bees, wheat rust or Rosy O’Donald’s comments. Any port in a storm for the TBTP. The sad thing is that most of the population will buy it.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 28 Apr 2007, 12:06:33

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/04/28/tanker ... index.html

Some great video from the refinery fire last night is now on www.cnn.com
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby pea-jay » Sun 29 Apr 2007, 03:50:32

Refinery fires are dramatic and make for good TV. Hurricanes and warfare aren't too shabby either. All are better than depletion. Depletion is like reading the technical manual to that new DVR you bought. You know you should pay attention to it but you dont.

The media is event driven and as long as we have some event to affix blame to we will. At least we are only blaming things, not specific people.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby ExtractionEngineer » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 13:55:53

My farm is on top of a hill about 45 miles west of this refinery. I watched smoke pour into the atmosphere all day Saturday. It stretched as far south as the eye can see....and I can see a good long stretch down into Texas from my place. I have not heard about the extent of damage done. They had another explosion at the same refinery about a year ago.
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Re: Another Refinery Fire

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Apr 2007, 15:42:45

We are about 4 hours NE of OKC and our pipe comes from there – we are consistently at the bottom of the national gasoline pricelist. I went and topped off the tanks as soon as I heard about the fire at around $2.5x / gal.

It will be interesting to see what the price this weekend when we go to town again.
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