[Taskforce_Unity]

Nexen, one of the oil companies producing the stuff succesfully out there has a working pilot running which mines the bitumen with the bitumen. Don't know the details but it probably is economic and energy positive.

This will solve the natural gas situation over time, more problematic is the worker shortage...

[AFO]

Curious to know if any one has come across on a study regarding Non-OPEC peak oil.

I think this topic is more serious than World Oil peak.

[seahorse]

AFO,

It has been discussed. Oil and Gas Journal had several articles on it a few years ago. You may want to search them online to retrieve them. I did post them here at one time, but don't rememeber the forum - you might try the Opec peak production forum under "depletion." You may also try the Saudi Production thread.

However, from memory, the two articles in the O&G Journal both said the "cross-over" event would be anywhere from 2007 - 2012, most likely about 2009. Cross-over being that time when Opec production exceeds non-opec production.

[Taskforce_Unity]

I discussed non-opec peak separately in my report from novemer 2005 which you can download here:

http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/upload ... report.pdf

I possibly was slightly pessimistic there, (non-opec peak in 2008). could be a little bit later.

[JoeW]

If the non-OPEC peak is not until 2008, then how does it make sense that so many believe we are already past the global peak? If non-OPEC hasn't peaked, and OPEC hasn't peaked, then the world hasn't peaked. Right?

The concensus among the posts that I have read on peakoil.com seems to be that non-OPEC will peak prior to OPEC.

I might just have to look up production figures to figure this thing out now.

[Taskforce_Unity]

JoeW,

This depends on whether one considers all liquids or just crude oil also

Whether we have peaked now or not, there is no consensus about that.

[nero]

Opec versus non-opec is an artificial distinction. You could also calculate Non-Opec/Non FSU production in which case peak is probably yesterday.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')INGAPORE - Oil production outside the OPEC cartel will keep rising until about 2015, while global output will continue to expand through 2025 at least, a top analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.


Countering doomsday “peak oil” theorists who believe global oil production may be reaching its limits, Wood Mackenzie said research based on its database of field-by-field global data showed supplies should keep expanding for at least 20 years.

It expects global oil production outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to rise to about 52 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 from 47 million bpd now, based mostly on existing fields and imminent developments, Kate Broughton, head of oils research at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'T')here has been a lot of chatter on these boards that PO is breaching the mainstream. Sure. Here's the breach:
"Countering doomsday “peak oil” theorists who believe global oil production may be reaching its limits."
We're like partial birth abortion. We've never called "partial birth abortion" by the MSM - we're called "so called partial birth abortion," which is there way of saying, "we despise that title and we're only using it because the term we prefer is not recognized by most people and is rather stupid sounding, unlike the ring to "partial birth abortion""

So what are we? Doomsday theorists:
1. Believing PO will occur soon is not, per se, doomsdayish. So the inclusion of "doomsday" is to liken us the the sandwhich board lunatic on 7th avenue declaring the end of the world.
2. PO is not, imo, properly described as a "theory". Not any more than it would be a theory to suggest that if you had a bowl of pretzels and you and your family began eating the pretzels that the pretzels would eventually be gone. That's not a theory - that's physics - if you use up a limited thing, it eventually runs out.

The point of calling it a theory is that it makes it seem as if ANY peak occurring is open to debate. To idiot listeners/readers who don't know squat about oil, this might seem reasonable. Again, the only real debates are:
1. When it occurs, and
2. How bad is the fallout.

[Valdemar]

Something dark is coming, and this will spell the end of the world we have enjoyed for near two centuries. When you broach this subject to Joe Bloggs on the street, the first gut reaction is "doomsday cultist", and it's not like he'd be unforgiven for thinking that, what with other cults cropping up via religious or other technological events e.g. Y2k bug.

But none of those are anything like an energy crisis, and because your average Layman is poorly educated in the concepts of science and economics that need more than soundbites to explain their workings, you have a long, wide streak of denial fuelled by ignorance and wishful thinking.

[seahorse2]

Before we put too much faith in Wood Mackenzie, keep in mind that just last year they previously forecast non-opec oil production to increase by over 1.5mbpd in 2007 - NOT HAPPENING!

Energy Bulletin

[Cobra_Strike]

There is a difference between 'The end of the world' and 'The end of the world as we know it' people who see fit to refute the concept of peak do not understand the difference.

These kind of people make me sick, even if the peak is not around now...they have thrown their hat into the ring and said it is 2015. You are not refuting the theory, only the date. Doing so makes them in support of the theory, even if they pose the idea its not right now.

Its maddening how conflicting this type of article is.

[Newsseeker]

I think it's a step up that WoodMac is at least putting their figures together and arriving at a date that is close to the PO ballpark. Personally, it is too optimistic but far better than the pap CERA spoonfeeds to the masses.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kate The Obfuscator', 'A')gainst oil demand estimated to rise an average annual 1.8 percent up to 2015, non-OPEC output will force the cartel to hold back some 8 million bpd of capacity by early next decade, a factor that could send price down to $45, she said.

“Around that point (spare capacity) begins to tail off again,” she added, which should revive oil to around $60 by 2025, in a repeat of the capacity crunch that caused a spike in 2004. It expects oil demand to grow an average 1.1 percent a year from 2015 to 2025.

Broughton estimated that Saudi Arabia would have the capacity to pump some 16 million bpd by 2025, up from 11.3 million bpd now, despite concerns raised several years ago that its huge but older reservoirs may struggle to pump more.

[Starvid]

If the Saudis pulled all the stops and exploited all their reserves at the maximum pace they might well reach 16 mbpd, but then they would peak before 2025.

But why in the name of everything sacred would they go to 16 mbpd? Would you if you were in their position?

Plateauing at 10-12 mbpd for the indefinite future seems a far better idea to me, and what's more, that's what the Saudis say they are going to do.

[Cynus]

All these forecasters were off by 10 years for the North Sea, so I figure they're off by 10 years again. That puts the peak at 2005, the current C+C peak.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')think it's a step up that WoodMac is at least putting their figures together and arriving at a date that is close to the PO ballpark.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ArabianBusiness.com', '
')Non-OPEC peak oil, or the point of maximum production of oil, will not occur before 2014, according to industry analysts Wood Mackenzie.

The company has disputed views that a pinnacle may be in sight and contends strong supply growth will prevail in the short term. Barring unexpected disruptions to production, Wood Mackenzie expects total global capacity to grow steadily from 86.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2006 to 96.7 million bpd in 2010.
(more at link)

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'S')he goes on to tout the "technology will save us" mantra, but an interesting statement from a Platts' editor.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')mazing, isn't it? I think technology is the true religion of the day. Questioning it amounts to heresy.

Perhaps we should burn a pinch of incense to The Lord God, Tech?