[peaker_2005]

This is sorta how I see things playing out.

I think we're at the green dot, peak has passed, as has peak Economy, with the red dot being a year to a year and a half away. Not more than two years, IMHO.

[cynicalheretic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'S')o, should I start buying gold and silver before is become $1,000 and $30 an ounce, respectively?

Edit: Also, see my quote about urban sheeple in the signature.

[Prince]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'E')xactly. We're not getting any good news at all. The doomer camp is increasing its numbers daily, it seems.

It doesn't bode well, does it? This is the source of the "feeling in our bones" we're starting to get. It isn't our imaginations. It's our intuition.

The cornucopians are absolutely dead wrong. They have it completely backwards. Too many negative factors are at work, and nobody can possibly fashion any sort of accurate model of how they interact and exacerbate each other. My crude, unscientific feeling, however, is that they don't just pile up on each other. It's worse than that. The negative factors don't each add individually to the total ill effects, they multiply them. We're looking at multiplication, folks, not addition.

Hence the "fast forward button" analogy we've been making around here for some time. Things are deteriorating at a bewildering pace that nobody in the past predicted. If my simple-minded theory is correct, that pace can only increase.

[Baldwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cynicalheretic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'S')o, should I start buying gold and silver before is become $1,000 and $30 an ounce, respectively?

Edit: Also, see my quote about urban sheeple in the signature.

[Jack]

I suspect it will be a little different than cynicalheretic suggests.

Let's suppose you have a really big black hole - like the one at the center of a galaxy. You travel closer and closer, and at some point you cross the event horizon without knowing it. When that occurs, you cannot get out, cannot escape - space-time is twisted such that all possible futures lie deeper in the black hole.

And that's where we are now. We've either crossed, or soon will cross, the event horizon. We don't (and won't) feel a thing. Oh, maybe gas will be a little more expensive...food will be up....we'll see an empty shelf at the store...no problem....

And a few months later as we spiral in, gas will be somewhat more expensive, with uncertain supplies...food will be up...there won't be many fresh foods available...our neighbor will become unemployed...

And months later, we'll have gone deeper. Everything will be a little worse. We'll trade jokes about how cheap gas used to be when it was less than $5...

But each step will be just a little worse, much like peaker_2005's graph. We'll crash, alright - but the masses will be too stupid to realize it.

So, yes, Cynicalheretic, you're right - quite possibly, two years from now will be crunch time from our perspective here and now.

And there will STILL be people saying inane things like "I can still buy gas! I can still buy things! What Peak Oil? It's not going to happen!" They won't admit it until their guts are ripped apart by the singularity (or peak oil, whichever comes first).

By the way...I took a trip to Costco a couple days ago. Lots of goods, but an entire area that used to be filled with fresh fruits and vegetables was empty. Just temporary, I'm sure. But someday - it won't be.

[Ludi]

The gas stations in our nearby small town run out of gas regularly, and this is during these "good times." I expect when times get truly tough, they will be out of gas for days, perhaps even weeks at a time.


Being one of the people on the edge financially (small income, small savings), I expect to be among the first to feel the effects of hard times. I'll let y'all know how it goes. So many of you seem to feel very secure in your jobs and professions, not part of the "waste" that folks always say needs to be trimmed. I know very well I'm part of that "waste" having no illusions of my own importance in the scheme of things!

[dinopello]

Well if the energy optimists are correct, then this is what Cosco will be like some day:

Cosco of the (Cornicopian) future

[kochevnik]

The crash is coming!!!

--------------------------

Again ?

We've been hearing this since I joined this site - YEARS ago.

The system has INCREDIBLE momentum. There is a saying in investment circles - "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - the DOW is going to hit 13,000 soon. I don't see that as a particular harbinger of doom.

I find preparing for PO/misc crash scenario to be much like playingc the futures market - it's not enough to be right about the DIRECTION (in this case - down) but you also have to be right about the TIMING.

Preparing (seriously) too early can be as bad as being too late. I think a lot of people here will be overtaken in preps by people who started much later in preparing - I think the majority of posters here (and I am as guilty of this as anyone) like to spend their time ANALYZING and very little time PREPARING. Look at the OilDrum for nice examples of this behavior.

The crash is coming but it is pretty useless (other than as an avenue for motivation) to predict the exact year/month.

Personally, I think the crash will happen just like the Peak has already - it will only be identifiable by the masses in retrospect.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'I') find preparing for PO/misc crash scenario to be much like playingc the futures market - it's not enough to be right about the DIRECTION (in this case - down) but you also have to be right about the TIMING.

Preparing (seriously) too early can be as bad as being too late.

[Frankieboy]

What about biodiesel from algae? Looks promising to me

[killJOY]

Frankiedarling, no doubt, someone will benefit from biodiesel made from algae.

But it won't be me.

Or most of us, for that matter.

Keep reading about peak oil. This issue is uglier, awfuller, sadder than you can probably imagine right now.

Start with this video, right NOW! Hear me???

Arithmetic, Population and Energy

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Frankieboy', 'W')hat about biodiesel from algae? Looks promising to me

[cynicalheretic]

Trust me on this guys, I can feel it in my bones, I sense I should stop going to college and prepare to learn from local bums on what trash in the garbage cans is safe and which is not.

The world is collapsing around us. BTW anyone know where I can get some good tutorials on how to build my own wind powered turbine?

[Monk]

I'm using the gold/commodity bull market to time when I think the most shit will hit the fan.

....and most of us agree that increasing gold prices are a harbinger for tough times ahead both economically and politically, etc

.... Bull and bear markets generally run 14-20 years in length.....

..... the current gold bull has been going for about 6 years, leaving 8-14 years before gold tops and the most shit has hit the fan..... causing gold to start losing its luster from that point onward.

[oowolf]

Here you go, dude:
http://www.otherpower.com/

http://www.otherpower.com/hamster.html !!!!!!!

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cynicalheretic', 'T')rust me on this guys, I can feel it in my bones, I sense I should stop going to college and prepare to learn from local bums on what trash in the garbage cans is safe and which is not.

The world is collapsing around us. BTW anyone know where I can get some good tutorials on how to build my own wind powered turbine?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'A')T first (2003) I was motivated to DO SOMETHING by educating people about the peak.

That stage didn't last long. I now only speak about this to people that are already predisposed to listen.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe some rich dude will let me into his compound in exchange for my skills

[PrairieMule]

I feel it too, and luckily so do my parents as well. I figure in 3.5 years I'll be by todays standards a 40yr old ranch hand living in Oklahoma. Better to be a poor old okie fat off of brangus beef than poor yuppie caught on a sinking ship with a big hat but no cattle.