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PeakOil is You

Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Non-believers: What DO you believe?

I believe I am an atheist
7
No votes
I don't believe, but I believe peak oil is apocalyptic nonetheless
4
No votes
I don't believe peak oil is apocalyptic, but I believe something
4
No votes
I don't believe in belief
10
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Total votes : 25

Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby killJOY » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 11:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]I know what I believe. I will continue to articulate what I believe and what I believe--I believe what I believe is right.

A bushism.


Belief/non-belief: a fascinating topic.

I don't believe in beliefs.

How does belief relate to peak oil?

I keep coming back to: it doesn't matter what one believes. The physical universe will do what it does.

But then again, humans have gone on for the last century as if they BELIEVED oil were an infinite blessing from YHWH.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]You have fattened my head with oil. Psalm 23


I can't believe peak oil is apocalyptic because I can't pretend to know the future. But the very fact that I can't know anything for certain about how this will play out is cause for GREAT ANXIETY.

The simple facts: we humans have known about this for 50 years. I've known about it since the 80s. Everyone knows that production has been declining in the US and imports have been growing. Everyone knows as goes one oil province, so goes another. Everyone knows we can't rely on growing oil supply forever.

Everyone knows oil is not going to "run out."

Everyone also believes: "not in my lifetime."

Everyone knows this fact: in the US, nothing has been done, and it looks like nothing will be done. Since I began studying this seriously in 2003, I have not only not seen anything being done, I have seen bad go to worse go to unbelievable.

I believe that nothing will be done.

But I don't believe apocalypse as scenario: The world is NOT going to end.

We should be so lucky.

YHWH should be so merciful as to end it for us.

No, the world will continue (broken) and we will have to deal with it.

Imagine an SUV as the proverbial albatross around one's neck (along with one's high-ceiled, no-inside-walled, leveraged to the hilt Mcmansion and subprime mortgage.) (Doesn't mortgage mean "dead-something"?)

Another non-apocalyptic facet of peak oil. NO MESSIACH.

People who equate peak oil with eschatology/parousia/dispensationalism miss the crucial (pun intended) aspect of it: the return of the Son of Adam/messiach/son of god. The institution of the Kingdom.

Not gonna happen.

There is no messiach.

In fact, the "alternatives" will SAVE us people are the true apocalypticons: "Here comes the SUN, doo doo doo doo...it's all right."

What Believ'st Thou?
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Bas » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 12:16:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone knows this fact: in the US, nothing has been done, and it looks like nothing will be done. Since I began studying this seriously in 2003, I have not only not seen anything being done, I have seen bad go to worse go to unbelievable.


They made a good start starving the mexicans with the corn ethanol program :cry:

As for believing; I don't believe in armageddon or in the God of any organized religion or church. I actually believe in extraterrestrial intelligence before I believe in a higher power of any kind.

And yes I wholly agree with your assesment of the future being impossible to predict; I would go even as far that just because of this unpredictability every human being (including myself) is inclined to either see the future in a much too negative way or in a much too postive way; for both his or her personal life and for the world as a whole.

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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Heineken » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 13:30:11

Some of the survey items concern religion; others, Peak Oil; still others, both at the same time. Yes, there's a connection, but overall the survey doesn't make sense because of the hazy overlap between survey items.
Last edited by Heineken on Sun 01 Apr 2007, 13:31:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby killJOY » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 13:53:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, there's a connection, but overall the survey doesn't make sense because of the hazy overlap between survey items.


That's because I'm silly. I'm clowning.[smilie=XXjester.gif] Like girls giggling as they pass the graveyard.

I bleeve my unconscious mind might be secretly terrified of 2007.

2007 seemed so far away back in 2003. Surely we can do a lot in 4-5 years. If we just get the word out.

Word's out. Nothing's changed.

I bleeve 2007 to be The Year. Whether because of imminent decline in oil production, or "unforeseen above-ground geopolitical event."
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby JasonHam » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 14:25:11

Its why Peak Oil and Peakers are consider part of the lunatic fringe . Just lump your "civilization coming to an end" talk in there witht the Rapture, Y2K, Nostradamus, and the boogie man. Peakers are convinced that they are right and that they somehow know more than the majority of people and governments. Nothing can save us from the desctruction that is about to occur, just in a few years. And in a few years it will be a few years more, and so on and so on. Just wait !!! Its right around the corner!! The total descrustion of humankind. People wont have any running water, they will be killing each other for a cheeseburger!! Nothing is going to work!! The Alternatives, new sciences, conservation is all a waste of time!! Just go ahead , buy a cabin in the woods, with a stockpile of shit and.....pick your nose.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby killJOY » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 14:31:26

Mr Ham, thanks for shoving all those DELICIOUS WORDS AND CONCEPTS into my mouth, I can barely chew..

...give me a minute.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Windmills » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 16:38:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JasonHam', 'I')ts why Peak Oil and Peakers are consider part of the lunatic fringe . Just lump your "civilization coming to an end" talk in there witht the Rapture, Y2K, Nostradamus, and the boogie man. Peakers are convinced that they are right and that they somehow know more than the majority of people and governments. Nothing can save us from the desctruction that is about to occur, just in a few years. And in a few years it will be a few years more, and so on and so on. Just wait !!! Its right around the corner!! The total descrustion of humankind. People wont have any running water, they will be killing each other for a cheeseburger!! Nothing is going to work!! The Alternatives, new sciences, conservation is all a waste of time!! Just go ahead , buy a cabin in the woods, with a stockpile of shit and.....pick your nose.


A great many people haven't even heard about peak oil. I think that almost definitively points to a person who is peak oil aware as knowing more than the majority of people.

Many people haven't a clue about risk analysis, either. They don't know how to interpret it, much less make rational decisions based on the results. Just because worst case scenarios are put forth doesn't mean that every peaker believes in some kind of apocalyptic doom as being the only possible future. There are is a continuum of possible outcomes and each person assigns their own individual probability to each.

Then you have people who believe that hydrogen is an energy source and that "sustainable growth" isn't an oxymoron. Most people subconsciously believe in infinite growth on a finite planet. This group includes a lot of people, and that would indicate again that people who have studied peak oil do know better.

Many of the regulars here have spent a great deal of time reading, studying, and arguing or discussing peak oil and its related subjects. The years of doing this have coalesced their thoughts and given them certain outlooks and lenses through which to evaluate information. A number of them have already explored many topics deeply enough to come to reasonable conclusions. As a result, when ignorant newcomers stumble upon the site, they tend to be met with a range of sometimes blunt and brief yet succint responses that leave novices unsatisfied. The novice comes here filled with unfounded and ignorant ideas and propaganda. Defensiveness, derision and disbelief are natural responses to being suddenly presented with the idea that much of what you believed is a lie.

I think a better approach is to ask questions and present your ideas specifically, probably one at a time, and with more detail. Perhaps an even better idea is to shout less and read more. If you bother to read the articles and posts here, you can see a huge array of subjects discussed in detail.

Another place that novices get tripped up concerns the important distiction between what could be done and what will be done. That point can hardly be overstated. What could we do to mitigate our problems? It's easy to conjure a utopia built on workable ideas. But there is a gulf between what we could do and what we will. Given how short-sighted, lazy, and greedy humans can be, how much faith should we put in humans playing their cards perfectly? We could have ended poverty and hunger and many other social ills. But we haven't. We have the means, but we don't use them. The same lack of will and self-sacrifice plagues the responses to peak oil. We already have alternatives on the market for personal transportation. Are we using them as much as we should? No. Could and will. And don't forget the clock is ticking. It's not that we couldn't build a million of these or those, but rather, will there be the time once your country finally realizes that oil production is in undeniable trouble? We could have dealt with global warming in a rational manner 20 or 30 years ago. Did we? What did we actually do? What are we doing now? We're going to wait. We'll wait until the fire is at our doorstep. The problem is that not every crisis can be solved at the last minute. So it is with global warming. And so it will be with peak oil. Sometimes humans have to plan ahead.

So it isn't that many here have no faith in all the proposals that have been offered. They may just lack faith in people caring to implement them until it's too late. So far, they're dead right.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby americandream » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 17:00:30

I don't think it takes a great degree of intelligence or reading of the tea leaves to deduce that 6 billion straws slurping out of the earthly pool of oils gonna see the koolaid kinda lose volume....fast.

If there's more of the stuff lurking around in deep wells or abioting at a rate of 1 cup per million years, go do your maths on what state the feckin earths going to be in after these goons have finished sticking her like a pin cushion or, on an optimisitic note, how far we're likely to get on a million yearly cuppa the black stuff.

Go figure and while you're at it, use the KISS method mate!
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby NEOPO » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 17:26:46

Yes, why cant we simply believe in ourselves.....
I believe in me and I want to believe in us.
We are in agreeance that it doesnt look good and everything from an educated Peaker perspective seems to indicate that all is lost yet as we know not to underestimate our enemies we should also know not to underestimate ourselves and that certainly seems to be the case more often then not.
Nearly two years ago few could imagine the Hirsch report or the GAO report and all the indications that Peak was going mainstream and that hell maybe there was some hope.
I mean really why even try to get the word out unless you like watching flies in jars or rats in cages..... you sadistic f$%^s you! :)

Jason, calm down as you are stuck in it and wiggling only makes it worse :-D

No one can accurately predict the future yet it is possible to look at our past as well as current M.O. and then somewhat gauge our speed and relative direction.
That is all many are doing as it looks like a brick wall, sounds like a train on a track, feels like we are moving very rapidly and gaining speed and it seems like everyone including the conductor is completely oblivious - how else would you describe it?

Yet again like an echo, All is not lost until it is.
I believe in me so screw your no thing and your some things! :lol:

In my head I have a spot reserved for total fucking chaos and a similarly sized portion for a peaceful transition yet the thought that occupies most of my head space is the grey area in between where lives my own determination to survive regardless of what may come.

Seems like the middle path is the only reality.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
IMHO - If anyone believes and tells others any different they are simply lying not only to others but to themselves as well.

<steps away from the podium grabs the nearest electric guitar and proceeds to dry hump a large amplifier for maximum feedback effect> :-D
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Ludi » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 18:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'A')nother place that novices get tripped up concerns the important distiction between what could be done and what will be done. That point can hardly be overstated. What could we do to mitigate our problems? It's easy to conjure a utopia built on workable ideas. But there is a gulf between what we could do and what we will. Given how short-sighted, lazy, and greedy humans can be, how much faith should we put in humans playing their cards perfectly? We could have ended poverty and hunger and many other social ills. But we haven't. We have the means, but we don't use them. The same lack of will and self-sacrifice plagues the responses to peak oil. We already have alternatives on the market for personal transportation. Are we using them as much as we should? No. Could and will. And don't forget the clock is ticking. It's not that we couldn't build a million of these or those, but rather, will there be the time once your country finally realizes that oil production is in undeniable trouble? We could have dealt with global warming in a rational manner 20 or 30 years ago. Did we? What did we actually do? What are we doing now? We're going to wait. We'll wait until the fire is at our doorstep. The problem is that not every crisis can be solved at the last minute. So it is with global warming. And so it will be with peak oil. Sometimes humans have to plan ahead.

So it isn't that many here have no faith in all the proposals that have been offered. They may just lack faith in people caring to implement them until it's too late. So far, they're dead right.



I really like what you say there, windmills.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby steam_cannon » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 18:31:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I')magine an SUV as the proverbial albatross around one's neck (along with one's high-ceiled, no-inside-walled, leveraged to the hilt Mcmansion and subprime mortgage.) (Doesn't mortgage mean "dead-something"?)

Mortgage means literally --> Death Vow
A term from French law...

"A mortgage is a method of using property (real or personal) as security for the payment of a debt.
The term mortgage (from Law French, lit. death vow) refers to the legal device used in securing the property, but it is also commonly used to refer to the debt secured by the mortgage, the mortgage loan."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby zoidberg » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 21:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JasonHam', 'I')ts why Peak Oil and Peakers are consider part of the lunatic fringe . Just lump your "civilization coming to an end" talk in there witht the Rapture, Y2K, Nostradamus, and the boogie man. Peakers are convinced that they are right and that they somehow know more than the majority of people and governments. Nothing can save us from the desctruction that is about to occur, just in a few years. And in a few years it will be a few years more, and so on and so on. Just wait !!! Its right around the corner!! The total descrustion of humankind. People wont have any running water, they will be killing each other for a cheeseburger!! Nothing is going to work!! The Alternatives, new sciences, conservation is all a waste of time!! Just go ahead , buy a cabin in the woods, with a stockpile of shit and.....pick your nose.


Its not that the doomers are wrong, but so anxious are they to see the end of world(as we know it) they often quicken the pace. Really the unwinding of the oil age is going to go on for quite some time, peak oil is merely the beginning. A few years after peak will be quite indistinguishable from a few years before. More price volatility, greater instability in regions dependent on oil exports etc... but nothing that wont blend in with todays news.

Really though you cant blame them. They may be smart doctors and engineers and such, but its hard to be cross discipline across such wide and indirectly connected fields such as petroleum geology and international political economics. So its best to take prediction as opinions and leave it at that.

Stretch the timeline out to 2030+ though and my opinion is that we are going to be fucked hard long and repeatedly. At least some population segments. It wasnt an equal ride up and it'll be even more unequal down.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Heineken » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 22:10:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, there's a connection, but overall the survey doesn't make sense because of the hazy overlap between survey items.


That's because I'm silly. I'm clowning.[smilie=XXjester.gif] Like girls giggling as they pass the graveyard.



Now that I can buy.

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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Heineken » Sun 01 Apr 2007, 22:15:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JasonHam', 'I')ts why Peak Oil and Peakers are consider part of the lunatic fringe . Just lump your "civilization coming to an end" talk in there witht the Rapture, Y2K, Nostradamus, and the boogie man. Peakers are convinced that they are right and that they somehow know more than the majority of people and governments. Nothing can save us from the desctruction that is about to occur, just in a few years. And in a few years it will be a few years more, and so on and so on. Just wait !!! Its right around the corner!! The total descrustion of humankind. People wont have any running water, they will be killing each other for a cheeseburger!! Nothing is going to work!! The Alternatives, new sciences, conservation is all a waste of time!! Just go ahead , buy a cabin in the woods, with a stockpile of shit and.....pick your nose.



Bravely said. A drunken Cheney could not have done a better job of sneering.

What are you running from, JasonHam? What are you so worked-up about? What are you afraid of?
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby steam_cannon » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 10:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Now that I can buy.

Silliness is a vital PO skill.

Hear hear! And pass me another beer! :lol:
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby aflurry » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 14:20:35

there's something just as cultish about the implicit belief in man's ingenuity leading us inexorably to intergalactic perfection.

though the bastard neo-biblical revalation shit is just the same thing wrapped up in old testament hoodoo. remember, the blessed are to be lifted from their cars mid lane-change and into space to join jesus on his flying deck chair. how is this really any different from the great plan to build a convoy to mars and set up fusion powered hydroponic algea farms? it's basically just riffs on the same basic tune.

my big takeaway from reading up on peak oil is the new significance it gives to just how short the era of oil and ingenuity has been, and how long before man struggled just to keep just a few tribes intact and alive until breeding age.

And one more thing. How many great and powerful civilizations have come before, and then been so completely destroyed that it's only within the past decade or so that archelogists have even been able to find a trace of them.

the collapse of civilization is the rule, not the exception.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby JasonHam » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 18:15:42

What are you running from, JasonHam? What are you so worked-up about? What are you afraid of?

I'm not the one who is running. Wokred up? Ill get worked up when I see my girl tonight. Afraid of? Getting laid off, Cancer, traveling on the beltway(its a deathtrap). Afraid is the wrong word. As Ive grown older I find that I'm not really afraid of anything. There is very little that one person can control. Even when it concerns his own life. You do the best you can.....If the boogie man jumps out from underneath the bed, so be it.
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Re: Non-believers: What DO you believe?

Postby Heineken » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 21:44:38

Then what are you doing here, Jason, swimming valiantly against the doomer current? Not to mention the facts.

Your position on Peak Oil and its consequences will crumble just as surely as the position that denies global warming is crumbling.

Five years ago I had arguments with global warming denialists very similar to you in basic stance. They were guided by faith, wishful thinking, nonscience, and nonsense.

Where are they now?

Slunk off to join the Flat Earth Society, perhaps.

I think you are afraid of the truth, the unpleasant truth, that the party is about to end.

Actually, I take it all back. I've just read some more recent posts of yours, and your position seems to be softening. Good job.
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