[Graeme]

U.S. can cut oil imports to zero by 2040, use to zero by 2050

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States could dramatically cut oil usage over the next 20-30 years at low to no net cost, said Amory B. Lovins, cofounder and CEO of the Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Institute, speaking at Stanford University Wednesday night for a week-long evening series of lectures sponsored by Mineral Acquisition Partners, Inc.

Lovins said the first automaker to develop an ultralight car will win the fuel cell race, which will dramatically increase vehicle energy efficiency and performance. He said the new design offers the best hope for Detroit to recapture its past market dominance.

He compared the current state of U.S. automakers to Boeing in 1997. Back then the airplane maker as fast-losing market share to Airbus and its margins were falling. Within a few years, the company reinvented itself with the 787 Dreamliner, an aircraft constructed of carbon composites that is 20 percent more fuel efficient than its predecessors and takes 3 days to assemble rather than 11 days for the 737. It became the fastest-selling plane in the history of the aerospace industry and the plane is sold out until 2013. Meanwhile, the new conventionally designed jumbo jet, the Airbus A320 jetliner, is two years late and over budget.

Looking down the road, Lovins said that the airplane industry believes it can make its fleet two to three times more energy efficient than it is today. There are even suggestions that cryoplanes, planes that use liquefied hydrogen gas fuel and produce no carbon dioxide emissions, could be the aircraft of the future. They are safer and more energy efficient, he claimed.

Lovins sees signs that Detroit is eyeing a Boeing-like turn around -- showing interest in light-weight composites and Ford Motor Co. brining on Alan Mulally, a former Boeing executive, now in place as CEO. He added that big changes are happening quickly in the industry.

Lovins said that Detroit should look to the American military for energy efficiency inspiration. Realizing that reliance on long oil supply chains is a major liability in the battlefield, the military is become a leader in developing and using pioneering energy technologies. It also sees the strategic value of becoming less reliant on oil imported from potentially hostile regions.

[TorrKing]

The conclusion of imports being cut to zero by 2040 is probably true, but not because of the reasons stated here.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Lovins said that Detroit should look to the American military for energy efficiency inspiration.

[americandream]

hahahahahahahahahahaha.......get the liquified seal blubber outta the fridge honey....we're taking the hummer down to the supermarket.

[AirlinePilot]

Oh it might be possible, but by any measure it wont be anything approaching normal, nor will it feel good, for ANYONE.

To do this will involve pain and suffering for all, including the economy. There is no way we reduce to this without massive changes to lifestyle, consumption, and our basic everyday way of life. I find it amusing to even believe we will go there with anything appraoching normalcy.

I tend to agree with the poster above, it's likely we only really do this after a global economic meltdown of epic proportions. That is only 32 years away.

[AirlinePilot]

excellent point mekrob, reality bites.

[americandream]

Is this another example of stupendously idiotic reasoning..you bet it is...

anyways, Lovins is not going to be around in 35 years to explain why he sowed false and delaying hope....he'll have spent the dosh and be well and truly plucking the proverbial harp strings..

good on him..dudes wising up to the fact that there's no point in trying to make this mess work/

[killJOY]

There's a mistake in the headline:

U.S. <b>WILL</b> cut oil imports to zero by 2040

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'e')xcellent point mekrob, reality bites.

[Madpaddy]

Torjus wrote,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he conclusion of imports being cut to zero by 2040 is probably true, but not because of the reasons stated here.

[emersonbiggins]

What is this Airbus A320 that Lovins is talking about?

The fact-checking intern gets an 'F' for today.

[pea-jay]

It reminds me of Bush's push to wean us off of Middle East Oil by 2020. I think it will happen. Its the first correct thing I heard the man utter while in office. Like Lovins he will be right for exactly the wrong reasons.

Speaking of lovins, another thing that bugs me is this stupid institute he's got. Totally renewable powered but most everyone's got to drive to reach

http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid110.php

[thylacine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'S')peaking of lovins, another thing that bugs me is this stupid institute he's got. Totally renewable powered but most everyone's got to drive to reach

[The_Toecutter]

Mekrob's analysis is flawed because one of the key figures he used is incorrect.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, even if you cut gas consumption by say 80-90% with advanced techniques, that's about 1-2 mpd of oil use just for that.