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Cliff or Slope?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby KevO » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:34:19

with all the latest reports about Mexico, the Gulf, SA etc
one now has to wonder again whether we are facing a cliff any time soon or ever or whether it will be a slope, and then of what gradient?
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:35:46

Do you ever wonder things to yourself, KevO?

I mean, there has to be easily 20 threads involving this subject.
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby KevO » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:40:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'D')o you ever wonder things to yourself, KevO?

I mean, there has to be easily 20 threads involving this subject.


really?
I'm on here a lot but I guess things go missing or hard to find!
Time passes, days go by

but I do try :cry:
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:54:48

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic27371.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25031.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5127.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16671.html


Here's some I found in a microsecond....

EDIT Oh yeah, and any thread with Olduvai in it will provide a plateau - slope - cliff discussion within....I think people just like to see their names in the "poster" column....and I vote for you as Redundant Overposter of the Year 2007 if there's another contest...

come on already jeeves....
Last edited by basil_hayden on Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:57:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby Novus » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 15:55:27

Actually we will see both cliff and a slope. For those that do not know, it is all in the math. This will happen. The only debate is when.

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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby KevO » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', '.')..I think people just like to see their names in the "poster" column....and I vote for you as Redundant Overposter of the Year 2007 if there's another contest...
.


thanks.
you tossbag
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby Eli » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:22:37

I just posting to see my name
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby KevO » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') just posting to see my name


me too and you gave me a great oppurtunity to see it again!
:-D :-D :-D :-D

Thing is KevO isn't my name, maybe Eli isn't yours but I betcha Basil Hayden is his. You wouldn't make up your name being Basil after all

:razz: :P
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:35:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'h')ttp://www.peakoil.com/fortopic27371.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25031.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5127.html

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16671.html


Here's some I found in a microsecond....

EDIT Oh yeah, and any thread with Olduvai in it will provide a plateau - slope - cliff discussion within....I think people just like to see their names in the "poster" column....and I vote for you as Redundant Overposter of the Year 2007 if there's another contest...

come on already jeeves....


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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:35:55

KevO must be a limey teenager if he has no knowledge of Basil Hayden...hey that's another thing you can find by searching before you post a thread on it!
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby nth » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 16:39:28

I think many people have this false notion that a 3% decline rate is small.

If you start with oil production at 85mbpd and set a decline rate of 3%, you will get a production rate of 73mbpd in 5 years and 63mbpd in 10 years.

Is that slope or cliff?

That is 3%.
If you use 2%, 77mbpd in 5 years and 69mbpd in 10 years.
Even just using 1%, you get 81mbpd in 5 years and 77mbpd in 10 years.

It does not really matter what the decline rates will be once we are in past PO. The only thing that matters is if we can get more energy production from other sources or new oil fields to compensate. If not, then we will just have to use less and how we get power down is up to the elites of the world to decide.
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby chuck6877 » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 23:19:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
It does not really matter what the decline rates will be once we are in past PO. The only thing that matters is if we can get more energy production from other sources or new oil fields to compensate. If not, then we will just have to use less and how we get power down is up to the elites of the world to decide.


My bet is war, disease, famine, etc.

Biblical end of the world shit!

The result will be a New World Order after years of turmoil. The World say in 20 years will come out of the ashes of the old world and a New World with one government will result, respecting the planet more, with new technologies and a renewed hope for better times.

The one billion people that survive will enjoy this New World. I hope we're all one of them!

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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby KevO » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 16:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'K')evO must be a limey teenager if he has no knowledge of Basil Hayden...hey that's another thing you can find by searching before you post a thread on it!


Basil Hayden, like Jack Daniels is for teenagers. Only Brits know how to drink properly. And for whiskey it has to be a Malt Scotch or our Irish friends' Jameson.


Three things Americans will never beat the Brits at,
soccer,
drinking
and shooting correct targets
:P
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 19:16:40

3 things Americans beat the Brits at everytime:

British blondes
British redheads
British brunettes....

send that to your mum!
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 19:28:14

Slope followed by a cliff ala Bakhtiari
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Re: Cliff or Slope?

Unread postby Pablo2079 » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 10:32:31

Once we're well down the otherside, we'll all agree that it was a cliff.
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