[Zentric]

All the talk about how the US dollar stands to fall tells me it just might, but probably not at all how we anticipate. America unmistakably does play the "consumer of last resort." This translates to us having the highest per-capita rate of spoiled, over-extended "consuming children" who need to use up a monstrous amount of resources just to be happy. While I suppose the average American is doing fine for the time being, probably some time soon his consumption addiction is going to scream for being unfulfilled, and we may all come to in some way envy those in the third world who are already quite used to this privation on a daily basis (no poke at third-worlders intended). But a pissed-off and hungry America will be an even greater danger to the world, and so it’s likely in the global community's interest to cut the US a whole lot of slack, and continue to support our economic model as it evolves in recognition of the new realities.

What if not only America's leaders, but the leaders of, say, the entire G8 (and China’s leaders too) in recognition that we are at the cusp of a financial, geological and abundantly humanitarian meltdown realized the necessity of stepping back from the gospel of unending exponential growth, and instead replaced it with a model of exponential decay, where the glue of society still stays in place as we trumpet for several years straight how we’re seeking not to raise but to lower GDP (adjusted for inflation)?

What if several of the world's leaders (where perhaps America’s leader could be some respected elder statesman, not our present president) were to start giving folksy fireside chats saying presently-radical and heretical things, where the speech for the American audience would go something like:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')* Primarily due to resource depletion, pollution and global warming, we can't grow the world’s economies any more. Massive numbers of people are going to be thrown out of their houses and the dollar's in for a rough ride no matter what we do. Unless, that is, we’re willing to make a shared sacrifice as individual investors and wealth holders, where our new goal is not to accumulate more purchasing power (that is, "wealth") but to instead try to preserve as much of that purchasing power as we can.

* For example, [sparing a lot of intricacies here] for goods, we aim to decrease the purchasing power of the American dollar ten percent each year for the next five years, about five percent for labor and services, and we expect, due to the present glut, that housing prices will stay about the same price for the entire time. And to bring this about, the Federal Reserve and Congress (and the ECB and China and Japan, etc.) will introduce new legislation, adjust lending standards, and will also adjust the Fed Funds rate to make sure that the American dollar's purchasing power is brought down, as intended. With an inflation rate of up to ten percent, you will find the buying power of your savings reduced considerably after five years, but the state of our emergency requires that the world's industries make less goods, and if this supply of goods is to diminish, then so too must the claim of your money on those goods.

* As an individual investor or saver, you naturally will want to maximize your own wealth. You will find that you can regain some of your money’s lost purchasing power by putting it in a savings account at a guaranteed two percent. While we can forecast that the average yield on the stock market for these next five years might be a little higher, say four or five percent, your own results could easily vary. I would also like to emphasize that the national and global investment environment will be taxed, tariffed and regulated accordingly so you shouldn’t expect to find any investment areas where your investment dollars aren't subjected to the reduced buying power that is planned. We anticipate that employment will be harder to find going forward, that is why we hope those who already have enough money saved away to meet their needs will either retire or switch to a reduced work schedule to allow others who really need the work to more easily find gainful employment.

* To the homeowners with subprime loans, we're going to help make it easier for you to pay your mortgage by dropping the interest rates about a half a percent a year for the next five years. If you're having a hard time finding the gainful employment that allows you to make your payments, we'd recommend that you find renters, or consider selling your place if that is more feasible - since with lowered interest rates, we do anticipate some resurgence in the real estate market.

[MattSavinar]

Sure our leaders could do that.

But it's so much easier just to release a genetic bioweapon, maybe drop a few nukes on population centers, and then descend into their underground cities for 20 years while the surviving peasents eliminate each other.

Then after a generation or so they come out of the cities and will have plenty of resources for them and theirs.

[Zentric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'S')ure our leaders could do that.

But it's so much easier just to release a genetic bioweapon, maybe drop a few nukes on population centers, and then descend into their underground cities for 20 years while the surviving peasents eliminate each other.

Then after a generation or so they come out of the cities and will have plenty of resources for them and theirs.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'S')ure our leaders could do that.

But it's so much easier just to release a genetic bioweapon, maybe drop a few nukes on population centers, and then descend into their underground cities for 20 years while the surviving peasents eliminate each other.

Then after a generation or so they come out of the cities and will have plenty of resources for them and theirs.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'S')ure our leaders could do that.

But it's so much easier just to release a genetic bioweapon, maybe drop a few nukes on population centers, and then descend into their underground cities for 20 years while the surviving peasents eliminate each other.

Then after a generation or so they come out of the cities and will have plenty of resources for them and theirs.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', ' ')

Could a cooperative decay-oriented global economy work? And if it's not practical, are there other scenarios out there with better prospects? And, otherwise, should “staying the course,” as we’re doing now, even be an option? It also seems that the rest of the world might want to join along with similarly devaluing their currencies, etc., since the new growth of the 21st century might have to be greater efficiency in any case.

[Zentric]

MacG -

There is a somewhat recent precedent for waging such a "war," FDR's fireside chats.

From Wikipedia:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ometimes beginning his talks with "My friends," or "Good evening, friends", Roosevelt urged listeners to have faith in the banks and to support his New Deal measures. The "fireside chats" were considered enormously successful and attracted more listeners than the most popular radio shows during the "Golden Age of Radio." Roosevelt continued his broadcasts into the 1940s, as Americans turned their attention to World War II.

Chronological list of fireside chats:

1. On the Bank Crisis - Sunday, March 12, 1933
2. Outlining the New Deal Program - Sunday, May 7, 1933
3. On the Purposes and Foundations of the Recovery Program - Monday, July 24, 1933
4. On the Currency Situation - Sunday, October 22, 1933

[...]

[Fishman]

Zentic, I think that might be the domestic talk, you did leave out some of the things that would have to go along with that message

As Americans, a new self responsibility will need to take place. Prisons will now be a place of work, no longer will states be able to spend tens of thousands of dollars for people to sit for years. Welfare will end or be greatly diminished, families will need to be responsible, governments with less taxes available, will only provide for the minimal assistance

For the UN

America will no longer provide the international aid of the past, with shrinking our economy, our resources will need to remain at home. Yes this will lead to starvation, and as sad as that seems, each continent will need to provide for its own, its own carrying capacity.

Not quite the utopia you hoped for. Did I miss something?

[Fishman]

Zentic, I think that might be the domestic talk, you did leave out some of the things that would have to go along with that message

As Americans, a new self responsibility will need to take place. Prisons will now be a place of work, no longer will states be able to spend tens of thousands of dollars for people to sit for years. Welfare will end or be greatly diminished, families will need to be responsible, governments with less taxes available, will only provide for the minimal assistance

For the UN

America will no longer provide the international aid of the past, with shrinking our economy, our resources will need to remain at home. Yes this will lead to starvation, and as sad as that seems, each continent will need to provide for its own, its own carrying capacity.

Not quite the utopia you hoped for. Did I miss something?

[Zentric]

Hi Fishman -

I'm just proposing how something like this could serve as a framework for slowing down the economy while producing less social upheaval than might otherwise occur. But, yes, I could see the new order affecting all sorts of things, actually everything, including who we do or don't want to lock up, and whether we'll expect prisoners to do labor in exchange for "room and board." Same thing with the UN and international affairs - some changes would be "good," others would be "not so good."

As for the regions that would starve without continued US assistance, the other peoples' needs are so slight in comparison to ours, I suppose the major industrial nations should continue to free up some resources for these people, along with a protocol for gently reducing population pressures everywhere.

Then again, there'd be so much more thought put into any economic contraction plan than I could even hope to comprehend my own self. So I guess I'm mostly wondering if modern growth capitalism can actually be thrown into reverse without tearing out its transmission.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'H')i Fishman -
Then again, there'd be so much more thought put into any economic contraction plan than I could even hope to comprehend my own self. So I guess I'm mostly wondering if modern growth capitalism can actually be thrown into reverse without tearing out its transmission.